Measurement Matters for Modeling U.S. Import Prices PDF Download
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Author: Charles P. Thomas
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Imports
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
Author: Charles P. Thomas
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Imports
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
Author: Charles P. Thomas
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Exchange rate pass-through
Languages : en
Pages : 72
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Book Description
In this paper we construct a new measure of U.S. prices relative to those of its trading partners and use it to reexamine the behavior of U.S. net exports. Our measure differs from existing measures of the dollar's real effective exchange rate (REER) in that it explicitly incorporates both the difference in price levels between the United States and developing economies and the growing importance of these developing economies in world trade. Unlike existing REERs, our measure shows that relative U.S. prices have increased significantly over the past 15 years. In terms of simple correlations, the relationship between our measure of relative prices and U.S. net exports is much more coherent than that between existing REERs and net exports. To explore this relationship further, we use our measure to construct an index of foreign prices relevant for U.S. export volumes and reexamine several export equations. We find that export equations with the new index dominate those with previous measures in terms of in-sample fit, out-of-sample fit, and parameter constancy. In addition, we find that with the new index of foreign prices the estimated elasticity of U.S. exports with respect to foreign income is a good bit higher that the unitary elasticity found in previous studies using other price measures. This has implications for U.S. current account adjustment.
Author: Takatoshi Ito
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226387089
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 441
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Book Description
The imbalanced, yet mutually beneficial, trading relationship between the United States and Asia has long been one of international finance’s most perplexing mysteries. Although the United States continues to post a substantial trade deficit—and China reaps the benefits of a surplus—the dollar has yet to sink in the face of ever-increasing account disparities. International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim explains why the United States enjoys a seemingly symbiotic relationship with its trading partners despite stark inequities in the trade balance, especially with Asia. This timely and well-informed study also debunks the assumed link between economic openness and low inflation in the region, identifies the serious gap between academic and private-sector researchers’ understanding of exchange rate volatility, and analyzes the liberalization of Asian capital accounts. International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim will have broad implications for global trade and economic policy issues in Asia and beyond.
Author: S. Boragan Aruoba
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
We construct a framework for measuring economic activity in real time (e.g., minute-by-minute), using a variety of stock and flow data observed at mixed frequencies. Specifically, we propose a dynamic factor model that permits exact filtering, and we explore the efficacy of our methods both in a simulation study and in a detailed empirical example.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 158906626X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 323
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Book Description
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook is packed with country specific facts, figures, and worldwide projections that present the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Leading international economists pull together the latest data on key topics, producing informed projections and policy analyses that show where the global economy is headed in the years to come. Business executives, policymakers, bankers, investors, marketing strategists, and economists worldwide refer to the WEO with confidence because it delivers a balanced view of the current economic situation, built upon the respected and extensive macroeconomic expertise and statistical resources of the IMF. The WEO is the product of a unique international exercise in information gathering and analysis performed by over 1,000 economists on the IMF staff. An annual subscription to the World Economic Outlook, published at least twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, offers a comprehensive assessment of the international economic situation as well as prospects for the future. With its analyses backed by the expertise and unparalleled resources of the IMF, the World Economic Outlook is the authoritative reference in its field. Today, when even small economic fluctuations can trigger major financial swings, the WEO supplies a solid source of actionable information and data.
Author: Susan N. Houseman
Publisher: W.E. Upjohn Institute
ISBN: 0880994886
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 712
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Book Description
Understanding the impacts of globalization requires good data, and national statistical systems were not designed to measure many of the transactions occurring in today’s global economy. The chapters in this two-volume set identify biases and gaps in national statistics, examine the magnitude of the problems they pose, and propose solutions to address significant biases and fill key data gaps.
Author: Robert J. Vigfusson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Exchange rate pass-through
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
A growing body of empirical work has found evidence of a decline in exchange rate pass-through to import prices in a number of industrial countries. Our paper complements this work by examining pass-through from the other side of the transaction; that is, we assess the exchange rate sensitivity of export prices (denominated in the exporter's currency). We first sketch out a streamlined analytical model that highlights some key factors that determine pass-through. Using this model as reference, we find that the prices charged on exports to the United States are more responsive to the exchange rate than is the case for export prices to other destinations, which is consistent with results in the literature suggesting that import price pass-through in the U.S. market is relatively low. We also find that moves in the exchange rate sensitivity of export prices over time have been significantly affected by country and region-specific factors, including the Asian financial crisis (for emerging Asia), deepening integration with the United States (for Canada), and the effects of the 1992 ERM crisis (for the United Kingdom).
Author: Jeong-Ryeol Kurz-Kim
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Distribution (Probability theory)
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : International finance
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
Author: Etienne Gagnon
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumer goods
Languages : en
Pages : 62
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Book Description
This paper provides new insight into the relationship between inflation and consumer price setting by examining a large data set of Mexican consumer prices covering episodes of both low and high inflation, as well as the transition between the two. Overall, the economy shares several characteristics with time-dependent models when the annual inflation rate is low (below 10-15%), while displaying strong state dependence when inflation is high (above 10-15%). At low inflation levels, the aggregate frequency of price changes responds little to movements in inflation because movements in the frequency of price decreases partly offset movements in the frequency of price increases. When the annual inflation rate rises beyond 10-15 percent, however, there are no longer enough price decreases to counterbalance the rising occurrence of price increases, making the frequency of price changes more responsive to inflation. It is shown that a simple menu-cost model with idiosyncratic technology shocks predicts remarkably well the level of the average frequency and magnitude of price changes over a wide range of inflation.
