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Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium

Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium PDF Author: Glenn D. Rudebusch
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Languages : en
Pages : 48

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Book Description
Linearized New Keynesian models and empirical no-arbitrage macro-finance models offer little insight regarding the implications of changes in bond term premiums for economic activity. We investigate these implications using both a structural model and a reduced-form framework. We show that there is no structural relationship running from the term premium to economic activity, but a reduced-form empirical analysis does suggest that a decline in the term premium has typically been associated with stimulus to real economic activity, which contradicts earlier results in the literature.