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Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
The sixth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was implemented between the end of August and November 2023. It follows five rounds that were carried out since the beginning of December 2021. This report discusses the findings from the sixth round related to livelihoods and welfare dynamics. The main findings are the following: Nationally, median real household income per adult equivalent declined by 15 percent between late 2022 and late 2023, indicating that the purchasing power of household income declined substantially over the previous year. Between late 2022 and late 2023, median real income per adult equivalent earned from farm wages increased slightly while real income earned from all other sources stagnated or declined. In late 2023, 13 percent of households had at least one jobless household member who in the three months before the survey spent at least one month seeking income generating work without finding it. The share of households with an unemployed member decreases by asset class (15 percent in asset poor households compared to 8 percent in asset rich households). Four percent of households had a child aged 5–11 who was employed at least one hour in any week in the three months before the survey and 8 percent of households had a child aged 12–14 who was employed at least 14 hours in any week during that period. Between late 2022 and 2023, there has been an overall reduction in household engagement in income earning activities. Except for other income sources (e.g., rent, remittances, and other forms of assistance), the share of households engaged in each income generating activity either declined or increased by a small, statistically insignificant amount. In every state/region, income poverty reached a new high in the period of August–November 2023 compared to all previous MHWS rounds in the last two years. Adjusted in accordance with food inflation, the poverty line increased by 35 percent between late 2022 and late 2023. A failure of nominal income to keep pace with this large jump in the poverty line led to an increase in the percentage of the population living in income-poor households by 17 percent from 62 percent in February–June 2023 to 72 in August–November 2023. Casual wage earning households continue to be the poorest livelihood group with income poverty rates of 90 and 84 percent in farm and non-farm wage earning households, respectively. Nonetheless, income poverty rose to 63 and 67 percent in households whose primary livelihoods are non-farm salary work and non-farm businesses—23 and 17 percent higher than a similar period in the previous year. Finally, over the same period, income poverty increased by 11 percent in farm households to 69 percent. Remittance income is an important stabilizing force. There are only a few factors helping households stay out of poverty, including earning income from salaried employment, migrating with the whole household, and receiving remittances. Individuals living in remittance receiving households are about 22 percentage points less poor compared to individuals in non-remittance receiving households. Households mainly reliant on ‘other’ forms of income, particularly remittances, are the most resilient livelihood group with poverty rates not changing between late 2022 and late 2023. In late 2023, households in Chin, Kayah, Rakhine, Sagaing, and Tanintharyi struggled most of all regions/states with income poverty, unemployment, and challenges to earning income. During that period, poverty headcounts were 93 percent in Chin, 87 percent in Kayah; and around 80 percent in Rakhine, Sagaing, and Tanintharyi. In Kayah, 49 percent of households reported a loss of employment in June–November 2023, while in Tanintharyi 39 percent of households reported a loss of employment. Further, nearly 30 percent of households in Kayah had an unemployed member—more than double the national average. Chin and Rakhine also had a large share of households with unemployed members. Finally, households in Chin were nearly twice as likely as other parts of the country to have employed children—children aged 5–11 were employed in 7 percent of households and children aged 12–14 were employed in 15 percent of households.
Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
The sixth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was implemented between the end of August and November 2023. It follows five rounds that were carried out since the beginning of December 2021. This report discusses the findings from the sixth round related to livelihoods and welfare dynamics. The main findings are the following: Nationally, median real household income per adult equivalent declined by 15 percent between late 2022 and late 2023, indicating that the purchasing power of household income declined substantially over the previous year. Between late 2022 and late 2023, median real income per adult equivalent earned from farm wages increased slightly while real income earned from all other sources stagnated or declined. In late 2023, 13 percent of households had at least one jobless household member who in the three months before the survey spent at least one month seeking income generating work without finding it. The share of households with an unemployed member decreases by asset class (15 percent in asset poor households compared to 8 percent in asset rich households). Four percent of households had a child aged 5–11 who was employed at least one hour in any week in the three months before the survey and 8 percent of households had a child aged 12–14 who was employed at least 14 hours in any week during that period. Between late 2022 and 2023, there has been an overall reduction in household engagement in income earning activities. Except for other income sources (e.g., rent, remittances, and other forms of assistance), the share of households engaged in each income generating activity either declined or increased by a small, statistically insignificant amount. In every state/region, income poverty reached a new high in the period of August–November 2023 compared to all previous MHWS rounds in the last two years. Adjusted in accordance with food inflation, the poverty line increased by 35 percent between late 2022 and late 2023. A failure of nominal income to keep pace with this large jump in the poverty line led to an increase in the percentage of the population living in income-poor households by 17 percent from 62 percent in February–June 2023 to 72 in August–November 2023. Casual wage earning households continue to be the poorest livelihood group with income poverty rates of 90 and 84 percent in farm and non-farm wage earning households, respectively. Nonetheless, income poverty rose to 63 and 67 percent in households whose primary livelihoods are non-farm salary work and non-farm businesses—23 and 17 percent higher than a similar period in the previous year. Finally, over the same period, income poverty increased by 11 percent in farm households to 69 percent. Remittance income is an important stabilizing force. There are only a few factors helping households stay out of poverty, including earning income from salaried employment, migrating with the whole household, and receiving remittances. Individuals living in remittance receiving households are about 22 percentage points less poor compared to individuals in non-remittance receiving households. Households mainly reliant on ‘other’ forms of income, particularly remittances, are the most resilient livelihood group with poverty rates not changing between late 2022 and late 2023. In late 2023, households in Chin, Kayah, Rakhine, Sagaing, and Tanintharyi struggled most of all regions/states with income poverty, unemployment, and challenges to earning income. During that period, poverty headcounts were 93 percent in Chin, 87 percent in Kayah; and around 80 percent in Rakhine, Sagaing, and Tanintharyi. In Kayah, 49 percent of households reported a loss of employment in June–November 2023, while in Tanintharyi 39 percent of households reported a loss of employment. Further, nearly 30 percent of households in Kayah had an unemployed member—more than double the national average. Chin and Rakhine also had a large share of households with unemployed members. Finally, households in Chin were nearly twice as likely as other parts of the country to have employed children—children aged 5–11 were employed in 7 percent of households and children aged 12–14 were employed in 15 percent of households.
Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
The sixth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was implemented between August and November 2023. It follows five rounds that were carried out since the beginning of December 2021. This report discusses the findings from the sixth round related to shocks and coping strategies. The security situation in Myanmar continued to deteriorate during the sixth-round recall period, which spanned from June to November 2023. Households felt insecure in their communities, as reported by 23 percent of households and had a low level of trust, as reported by 25 percent of households. This is because crime and violence continued to increase, affecting 20 and 10 percent of communities, respectively. Further, eight percent of households were directly affected by violence, either through violence against a household member, robbery, or appropriation and/or destruction of their assets. Lawlessness continues to rise in Myanmar. In June–November 2023, 21 percent of households reported a lot or some gambling in their community, 20 percent reported a high risk of burglary, theft, or robbery in their community, and 16 percent reported drug use. These issues were more prominent in urban areas, compared to rural areas. Another crucial challenge is that 15 percent of respondents felt that it was dangerous for them to move around and do everyday tasks in June–November 2023. Finally, three percent of respondents revealed that there was a risk of kidnapping in their community. The two states/regions where households felt the most insecure between June and November 2023 were Kayah and Chin. At the same time, the security situation in Rakhine, Tanintharyi, and Sagaing decreased the most compared to the same time last year. These areas witnessed the highest increases in lawlessness. While the lowest levels of reported insecurity continued to be in Ayeyarwady, Bago, and Nay Pyi Taw, these regions are still confronting much of the same risks as experienced across the country. Households faced multiple shocks besides insecurity. In June–November 2023, 19 percent of farm households reported being negatively impacted by at least one climatic shock. Intense wind was a major issue in Rakhine with 28 percent of households negatively impacted. Disruptions to the internet and electricity also negatively affected household wellbeing and livelihoods. For residents that accessed electricity from the national power grid, 55 percent of households had a power cut of at least one hour from 8:00 am to 8:00 pm all seven days of the week prior to the interview. Further, between June and November of 2023, almost half of the households (48 percent) did not have access to the internet regularly. Access to medical services and school enrolment improved at the end of 2023 compared to the end of 2022. The percentage of households who could never access medical services dropped from eight percent in July–December 2022 to two percent in June–November 2023. School enrollment improved from 79 percent of children aged 5 to 14 enrolled in July-December 2022 to 86 percent of children enrolled in June–November 2023. The rate of food inflation rose to 24 percent between March–June 2023 and September-November 2023, on average 5 percent per month. The prices of most foods in our survey increased considerably in the one-year period between October–December 2022 and September–November 2023, with median rice prices increasing by 75 percent. Further, the contribution of rice prices to the rising cost of the food inflation basket has become more 4 important over time. On the other hand, vegetable prices exhibited substantial volatility with large increases in prices between the third and fourth quarters of both 2022 and 2023. Seventy-five percent of households used at least one coping strategy to meet daily needs during the month prior to the sixth-round survey (June–November 2023). The three most common coping strategies used were spending savings, reducing non-food expenditure, and reducing food expenditure. This has been consistent across rounds. Further, some households exhausted some or all of their coping strategies. Thirty-five percent of households reported that they no longer have any savings to reduce. Finally, the number of households who borrowed money (30 percent) decreased significantly from the previous year (38 percent) but was still slightly higher than in the beginning of 2023. At the same time, 49 percent of households continued to be in debt.
Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 16
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Book Description
In this research note, we report results on the prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity among mothers of young children using data collected in Yangon and Ayeyarwady as part of the Rural-Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS). This in-person study, conducted between October–November 2023, surveyed mothers who were registered from antenatal clinics in peri-urban Yangon in early 2020. In this latest survey round, we revisited this sample of mother-child pairs to gather anthropometric data (along with other nutrition-relevant indicators). We successfully collected anthropometric data for 646 mothers.
Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 23
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Book Description
We have analyzed rice productivity and profitability data for the 2023 monsoon season from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted at the beginning of 2024. This survey encompassed plots managed by 2,840 rice producers, distributed across all states/regions of the country. Our findings reveal: 1. National rice productivity exhibited an average increase of 7 percent during the 2023 monsoon compared to the previous year, reversing the decline witnessed in the 2022 monsoon. This year's heightened productivity primarily stems from increased input usage (particularly fertilizer), greater labor inputs (with more farmers adopting transplanting), and reduced occurrences of natural shocks, notably droughts. 2. The Ayeyarwady region, the country's principal rice-producing area, experienced an 11 percent increase in rice productivity. Conversely, rice yields remained low in Kayah and Chin, two states affected by severe conflict. The highest yields, along with notable increases over the past three years, are observed in Nay Pyi Taw. 3. Significant changes in input costs for rice cultivation were observed between the two seasons: 3.1 Prices of urea, the most important chemical fertilizer used by rice farmers, decreased by 16 percent. 3.2 Mechanization costs surged by a notable 42 percent, which is concerning, especially in light of escalating rural labor scarcity. Particularly pronounced increases in mechanization costs were noted in coastal areas where fuel prices were high, or fuel was not available at all. 4. Substantial changes in technology adoption and input utilization compared to the previous monsoon were noted: 4.1 Fertilizer use on rice increased by 20 percent. 4.2 Use of self-preserved seed – instead of obtaining it from the market - increased by 6 percentage points compared to last monsoon, and 17 percentage points compared to 2020. 4.3 Transplanting increased by 5 percentage points while broadcasting declined by 7 percentage points. 4.4 The use of combine harvesters on rice was 1 percentage point lower compared to last year but was 12 percentage points lower than in 2020. 5. Thirty percent of paddy farmers reported being impacted by climatic or other production shocks during this monsoon, with floods (reported by seven percent of farmers) and droughts (reported by five percent) having significant adverse effects on yields. When affected, paddy yields decreased by 32 and 51 percent, respectively. Incidences of pests, diseases, and weeds have the highest frequency overall (13 percent). 6. Substantial changes in input usage and technology adoption were observed in paddy cultivation within coastal areas (Rakhine and Tanintharyi), seemingly linked to insecurity, mobility constraints, and fuel accessibility issues: 6.1 Fertilizer use declined by one-third. 6.2 The utilization of combine harvesters plummeted by 26 percentage points. 7. Paddy prices at the farm level surged by 64 percent, reflecting changes in international rice prices as well as the depreciation of the MMK. 8. Real – in terms of the cost of an average food basket – profits from rice farming during the monsoon of 2023 increased by 43 percent compared to the previous year. While nominal profits doubled since the previous monsoon, high price inflation tempered the increase in real profits. 9. The paddy sector has proven resilient in 2023, with improved pricing incentivizing farmers to intensify production through increased usage of chemical fertilizers and labor inputs. The outlook for paddy production in 2024 appears promising yet uncertain due to the following factors: 1. Weather conditions: Adverse weather, as witnessed during the 2023 monsoon, can significantly impact yields. Most models predict the El Niño conditions - with drier-than-average rainfall conditions - to continue weakening. 2. Evolution of insecurity: Insecurity correlates with reduced access to inputs and, when accessible, higher costs, thereby lowering profitability for farmers. 3. Labor scarcity: Labor availability is expected to become increasingly constrained in the next monsoon due to significant out-migration linked to the Military Service Law. 4. Fuel availability: A quarter of Myanmar's farmers reported limited access to fuel during the post/pre-monsoon season of 2024, complicating irrigation, and agricultural mechanization, which is typically relied upon by most rice farmers. These findings underscore three primary implications for Myanmar's rice sector: 1. Ensuring adequate access to mechanization for rice farmers: Despite benefiting from increased mechanization over the past decade, there is a concerning trend of dis-adoption in combine harvester usage, attributed to mobility issues and fuel accessibility problems. This is particularly worrisome given the anticipated rise in rural labor scarcity. 2. Emphasizing access to climate-resilient seeds: While farmers are increasingly relying on self-preserved paddy seeds, there is a pressing need for the adoption of improved, high yielding, and stress-resistant varieties. As evidenced by our results, farmers affected by floods and droughts experience significantly lower yields than unaffected farmers. Given an expected increase of weather shocks, higher adoption of adapted seeds is required. 3. Addressing the impact of high rice prices on food security: While beneficial for farmers, elevated paddy prices contribute to high rice prices in the country, posing a significant concern, especially for the most vulnerable segments of the population.2 The most effective means of mitigating the adverse effects of high rice prices on poor consumers is through expanded safety net programs, providing additional liquidity directly to them.
Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
We have analyzed oilseed production patterns, productivity, and profitability for the 2023 monsoon season from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted at the beginning of 2024. This survey encompassed plots managed by 802 oilseed producers, distributed across all states/regions of the country. Our findings reveal: Overall, oilseed productivity increased by an average of 2 percent during the 2023 monsoon compared to the previous year. Performance differed by crop with soybean and sesame experiencing moderate increases in yield, while groundnut and sunflower witnessed a decline in average yields of one percent. This mediocre performance stemmed from low input usage (particularly fertilizer), similar labor inputs, and a high occurrence of natural shocks, notably pests, diseases, and weeds, and heavy rain and storms. Despite decreasing fertilizer prices, chemical fertilizer use remained low in oilseed production, with 45 percent of farmers using chemical fertilizer in monsoon 2023. Further, chemical fertilizer use did not increase in oilseed production compared to the previous monsoon. Organic fertilizer use, on the other hand, is high in oilseed production, as 63 percent of farmers applied it in the 2023 monsoon season. During this time, organic fertilizer was used by 74 percent of groundnut farmers and 76 percent of oilseed farmers in the Dry Zone. This is due to the availability of organic manure in the Dry Zone where oilseed production is high. Groundnut, soybean, and sesame farmers relied on seeds saved from last year’s harvest, while 67 percent of sunflower farmers purchased seeds from ag-input retailers or the government. The percentage of oilseed farmers using self-preserved seed – instead of obtaining it from the market - increased by 9 percentage points compared to last monsoon. Draught animal ownership remains important for oilseed production, especially in the Dry Zone. Seventy-one percent of oilseed farmers used draught animals in production, with 50 percent using their owned draught animals. Thirty-nine percent of oilseed farmers reported being impacted by climatic or other production shocks during this monsoon, with pests, diseases, and weeds (reported by 36 percent of farmers who experienced shocks), heavy rain/ storms (reported by 34 percent), droughts (reported by 22 percent), and irregular rainfall (reported by 21 percent) having significant adverse effects on yields. Oilseed prices at the farm level increased by between 20 (soybean) and 45 (sunflower) percent, reflecting changes in international oilseed prices as well as the depreciation of the MMK. Real – in terms of the cost of an average food basket – gross margins from oilseed farming during the monsoon of 2023 increased by between 2 (soybean and groundnut) and 12 (sesame) percent compared to the previous year. Real sunflower gross margins declined. At the same time, nominal profits increased by 33 percent since the previous monsoon. High price inflation tempered the increase in real profits. Twenty percent of oilseed farmers faced significant issues in terms of marketing, including low prices for crops, insecurity, and having trouble reaching traders. These issues likely decreased the profitability of oilseed farming for the affected farmers. Oilseed farmers reflecting on this monsoon compared to last, perceived higher profits, suggesting that the oilseed sector continues to be a lucrative choice for farmers. These findings have several policy implications: Ensure access to quality seeds: Reusing seeds from previous seasons reduces yields, especially when combined with climate shocks. The private sector should make quality seeds and seeds with high oil content available to boost oilseed crop yields. Promote organic fertilizer use: Organic fertilizer is predominantly used in the Dry Zone. Expand its use to other agro-ecological zones to improve long-term soil fertility and help farmers mitigate the impact of fluctuating chemical fertilizer prices. The private sector and NGOs through in-person and online platforms can provide training on making compost from farm residues for farmers without access to animal manures. Enhance pest and disease management: The private sector should provide farmers with access to better pest and disease management resources, including training and access to effective, environmentally friendly pesticides and herbicides. Strengthen climate resilience: The private sector can strengthen climate resilience by developing and disseminating climate-resilient agricultural practices, providing training on drought-tolerant and flood-resistant crop varieties through in-person and online platforms, and offering financial incentives and technological support to farmers. Create secure marketing channels: Farmers face low crop prices and safety issues during trade, along with difficulties in reaching traders due to security concerns. Develop secure and stable marketing channels to address these challenges. Increase loans for oilseed crops: Given the higher production costs of groundnut, sesame, and soybean compared to sunflower, MADB should increase their loan amounts for these crops to enhance their productivity. The private sector could also lend money to oilseed farmers, given the increase in oilseed production stemming from their perceived profitability and importance to the government.
Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 58
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Book Description
The fifth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was implemented between March and June 2023. It follows from four rounds that were carried out quarterly beginning in December 2021. This report discusses the findings from the fifth round related to livelihoods, shocks, asset and income poverty, and coping strategies.
Author: Abay, Kibrom A.
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
We assess the impact of Ethiopia’s flagship social protection program, the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) on the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food and nutrition security of households, mothers, and children. We use both pre-pandemic in-person household survey data and a post-pandemic phone survey. Two thirds of our respondents reported that their incomes had fallen after the pandemic began and almost half reported that their ability to satisfy their food needs had worsened. Employing a household fixed effects difference-in-difference approach, we find that the household food insecurity increased by 11.7 percentage points and the size of the food gap by 0.47 months in the aftermath of the onset of the pandemic. Participation in the PSNP offsets virtually all of this adverse change; the likelihood of becoming food insecure increased by only 2.4 percentage points for PSNP households and the duration of the food gap increased by only 0.13 months. The protective role of PSNP is greater for poorer households and those living in remote areas. Results are robust to definitions of PSNP participation, different estimators and how we account for the non-randomness of mobile phone ownership. PSNP households were less likely to reduce expenditures on health and education by 7.7 percentage points and were less likely to reduce expenditures on agricultural inputs by 13 percentage points. By contrast, mothers’ and children’s diets changed little, despite some changes in the composition of diets with consumption of animal source foods declining significantly.
Author: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Publisher: Food & Agriculture Org.
ISBN: 9251305722
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 278
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Book Description
New evidence this year corroborates the rise in world hunger observed in this report last year, sending a warning that more action is needed if we aspire to end world hunger and malnutrition in all its forms by 2030. Updated estimates show the number of people who suffer from hunger has been growing over the past three years, returning to prevailing levels from almost a decade ago. Although progress continues to be made in reducing child stunting, over 22 percent of children under five years of age are still affected. Other forms of malnutrition are also growing: adult obesity continues to increase in countries irrespective of their income levels, and many countries are coping with multiple forms of malnutrition at the same time – overweight and obesity, as well as anaemia in women, and child stunting and wasting.
Author: Babu, Suresh Chandra
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
Engaging burgeoning youth populations in developing country agriculture is seen as an important strategy toward effective, efficient, and sustainable food system transformation. Yet the policy, institutional, technological, and capability barriers and ways to overcome them for successful participation of youth in agriculture are not fully understood. We use a conceptual framework that identifies key pathways to prosperity for youth and classifies contextual and driving factors that contribute to the success of youth engagement in agriculture. The framework comprises four broad categories of strategic interventions: policy and socioeconomic environment; institutional; technological/business infrastructure; and individual skills and capacities. In the context of this framework, we then present insights from cases of youth participation in agriculture in five countries: Guatemala, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, and Uganda. The countries and cases were purposively selected as part of ongoing research on youth engagement in agriculture. Policies and strategies play an important role in creating an enabling environment for youth engagement in agriculture, including by fostering transparency and accountability in the policy system and promoting youth engagement in the private sector through agricultural extension and other services. Institutions and intermediaries provide financial support, training, and access to market for youth entrepreneurs. Support in these areas should be strengthened. Systems approaches, such as multi-stakeholder platforms, provide holistic support to young agripreneurs (entrepreneurs in agriculture), but require effective coordination. Similarly, information and communication technologies can play a facilitating role by providing platforms to network and receive updated market information but need to be significantly scaled up. Individual capacities can drive youth engagement in agriculture and agripreneurship but must continue to be built up through expanded education and training on technical and functional skills. As policymakers and program managers search for interventions that can promote youth involvement in agriculture in their own countries, the insights from the five countries examined that are presented in this paper may be useful for identifying context-specific challenges and pathways to successful youth engagement in agriculture in their own countries. The framework presented here can be applied to study youth engagement issues in any country or in sub-national, decentralized contexts to generate evidence to guide the design of youth-in-agriculture development programs. There is a need to support, strengthen, and implement the driving factors identified in this paper for expanding youth engagement in agriculture.
Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646794973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158
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Book Description
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
