Determinants of Property Prices in Hong Kong SAR PDF Download
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Author: Mr.R. Sean Craig
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463925948
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 15
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Book Description
This paper uses an econometric model of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR to assess the effectiveness of alternative policies in slowing the increase in property prices. The rapid rise in property prices is well explained by macroconomic fundamentals; real GDP per capital, real domestic credit, construction costs, land supply, and the real interest rate. Policy can influence the property market though land supply and prudential and tax policy, with the latter policies taking the form of a stamp duty on property transactions and a tighter loan-to-value ratio (LTV) on lending. Land supply is the most effective policy insturment for restraining property price increases but it operates with a significant lag. The LTV and stamp duty dampen speculative activity that drives up property prices. While these policies can slow the increase in the short run, they should be guided by their long run objectives of financial stability and counteracting speculation.
Author: Mr.R. Sean Craig
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463925948
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 15
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper uses an econometric model of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR to assess the effectiveness of alternative policies in slowing the increase in property prices. The rapid rise in property prices is well explained by macroconomic fundamentals; real GDP per capital, real domestic credit, construction costs, land supply, and the real interest rate. Policy can influence the property market though land supply and prudential and tax policy, with the latter policies taking the form of a stamp duty on property transactions and a tighter loan-to-value ratio (LTV) on lending. Land supply is the most effective policy insturment for restraining property price increases but it operates with a significant lag. The LTV and stamp duty dampen speculative activity that drives up property prices. While these policies can slow the increase in the short run, they should be guided by their long run objectives of financial stability and counteracting speculation.
Author: Qiongqiong Zheng
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781361006177
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This dissertation, "Land Supply and Housing Prices: Empirical Studies of Hong Kong and Guangzhou" by Qiongqiong, Zheng, 郑琼琼, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: It is widely accepted that land supply plays an important role in restricting housing supply and adjusting housing price level. This study aims to explore the dynamic relationship and causality between land supply and housing price with the cases of Hong Kong and Guangzhou, which are two close relative Chinese cities under the framework of 'One country, two systems'. This study employs the vector auto-regression (VAR), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality test to disentangle the complicated relationship, long-run and short-run, between land supply and housing price. Besides, the dynamic analysis of VAR and VECM are conducted using innovation accounting methods such as impulse response function (IRF) and variance decomposition (VDC). The empirical results show that the land supply and housing price are co-integrated in Hong Kong during the sample period between 2001 and 2011, and a long-run unilateral causality is confirmed from housing price to land supply for Hong Kong. Regarding Guangzhou, although there is no co-integration between land supply and housing price during 2001 and 2011, Granger causality from land supply to housing price shows a time lag of 10 quarters. These findings imply the relative efficient market economy in the Hong Kong housing market compared to Guangzhou, which is also consistent with the differences in land leasing systems and housing markets in Hong Kong and Guangzhou. This study not only sheds light on the discrepancies of land leasing systems and housing market mechanism between capitalism and socialism, but also provides implications for policy makers in formulating strategy to improve housing affordability. DOI: 10.5353/th_b5108692 Subjects: Housing - Prices - China - Hong Kong Land use - China - Guangzhou Housing - Prices - China - Guangzhou Land use - China - Hong Kong
Author: Ruijue Peng
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
Author: Qiongqiong Zheng
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Eddie C. M. Hui
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789623673396
Category : Land use
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Yuk-Yi Alice Cheung
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781374810006
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Qiongqiong Zheng
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 188
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Book Description
Author: Pui-shan Wong
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 208
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Book Description
Author: Yikun Huang
Publisher: Open Dissertation Press
ISBN: 9781361340851
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This dissertation, "Land Supply Elasticity and the Housing Price Sensitivity to Interest Rate" by Yikun, Huang, 黃逸昆, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: In Hong Kong, housing prices have increased significantly in recent years. Amongst all the reasons for such significant increase, low interest rate has been recognized as one of the major reasons. Many studies have provided empirical evidence to support the negative relationship between interest rate and housing prices. However, in the US, recent studies (Glaeser, Gottlieb and Gyourko, 2010; Kuttner, 2012) show that the observed effect of interest rate changes on housing prices is much less than that predicted by the standard user cost model. According to the Glaeser et al. (2010), there are three potential explanations for the low housing price sensitivity to interest rate fluctuation. First, increase in land (and therefore housing) supply elasticity can reduce the effects of the demand-side variables, including interest rate. Second, high risk premium for long term mortgage rate in the US makes housing prices less sensitive to changes in interest rates. Third, the long-term mortgage contracts in the US cannot reflect the impact of frequent short term interest rate fluctuation. Among these three potential hypotheses proposed to explain the lower than expected housing price sensitivity to interest rate changes, land supply elasticity is more relevant to Hong Kong. By focusing on Hong Kong's housing market, this thesis examines the relationship between land supply elasticity and the sensitivity of housing prices towards interest rate changes. When demand shift due to interest rate change, land supply (and therefore housing supply) may respond accordingly to reduce the impact of interest rate change. The more elastic the supply is, the weaker the housing price sensitivity to interest rate may be. Alternatively, housing prices are more sensitive to interest rate change when land supply is inelastic. To be more precisely, this study provides an empirical test on whether land supply elasticity reduces housing price sensitivity towards interest changes. Two approaches are applied to provide clear pictures of housing price sensitivity. First, data from different housing subsectors with different land supply elasticity are used for the empirical tests. The results show that prices of large units in the Hong Kong Island are significantly more sensitive to interest rate change, compared to those of small units in the New Territories. This is consistent with the implication of our hypothesis because new land for building luxurious units in Hong Kong Island is limited while there are relatively more lands available in the New Territories for smaller mass residential units. Second, in Hong Kong, all new land supply comes from the government in the form of leasehold land. Hence, government's land supply policy has a major impact on land supply elasticity. For example, there was a period of restricted land supply before the handover in 1997, which effectively reduced land supply elasticity. On the other hand, the Application List land sales system adopted by the Hong Kong government from 2000 to 2013 should increase the flexibility in land supply. Therefore, this study makes use of these policy changes as nature experiments to investigate the effect of land supply elasticity on housing price sensitivity towards interest fluctuation. The results show that housing prices are more sensitive to interest rate change during the land supply restriction period and more insensitive
Author: Shu Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 74
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Book Description
The objective of this thesis is to investigate the effects of land supply on housing prices in Hong Kong. Studies will be carried out to define whether there are any correlation between land supply, housing supply and residential property prices. In order to better understand Hong Kong's housing market, this study will first present a background of establishment of Hong Kong's land tenure system, land administration system and the government's land sale process, while trying to answer the question of whether the perceived shortage in housing supply is a direct consequence of the shortage in government's land supply. The study then examines the concentration of market shares among a handful of developers and the high barrier to entry that have resulted in such anti-competitive environment. The study analyzes the leading developers' competitive advantages in terms of land bank and financial strength, and their housing supply strategies in relation to the government's land supply decisions. This paper will then insert the theoretical findings into realistic settings of Hong Kong's housing development industry, and apply the methodology of event study to detect the impact of real estate companies' development strategies and how it alters the perceived relationship between the supply of land and the supply of housing. By simultaneously considering the effects of development strategies with government land policies, the paper aims to better evaluate governments measure to regulate housing market and hope to recommend more effective policies on residential land supply in Hong Kong.
