Jumps, Martingales, and Foreign Exchange Futures Prices

Jumps, Martingales, and Foreign Exchange Futures Prices PDF Author: Zuliu Hu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451921640
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26

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Book Description
A common specification about the behavior of foreign exchange spot and futures prices is that they follow continuous diffusion processes. The empirical regularities uncovered from daily and weekly currency futures data, however, cast doubts on the validity of this model. First, contrary to the suggestions in the literature, changes in foreign currency futures prices are serially correlated; variance ratio tests and other related tests overwhelmingly reject Samuelson’s martingale hypothesis. Second, foreign exchange futures prices do not appear to have continuous sample path; the evidence suggests the presence of a jump component, which may lead to pricing bias when applying the standard Black-Scholes option pricing formula to foreign exchange markets.

Jumps, Martingales, and Foreign Exchange Futures Prices

Jumps, Martingales, and Foreign Exchange Futures Prices PDF Author: Zuliu Hu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451921640
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26

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Book Description
A common specification about the behavior of foreign exchange spot and futures prices is that they follow continuous diffusion processes. The empirical regularities uncovered from daily and weekly currency futures data, however, cast doubts on the validity of this model. First, contrary to the suggestions in the literature, changes in foreign currency futures prices are serially correlated; variance ratio tests and other related tests overwhelmingly reject Samuelson’s martingale hypothesis. Second, foreign exchange futures prices do not appear to have continuous sample path; the evidence suggests the presence of a jump component, which may lead to pricing bias when applying the standard Black-Scholes option pricing formula to foreign exchange markets.

Jumps, Martingales, and Foreign Exchange Futures Prices

Jumps, Martingales, and Foreign Exchange Futures Prices PDF Author: Zu-Liu Hu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 26

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Book Description
A common specification about the behavior of foreign exchange spot and futures prices is that they follow continuous diffusion processes. The empirical regularities uncovered from daily and weekly currency futures data, however, cast doubts on the validity of this model. First, contrary to the suggestions in the literature, changes in foreign currency futures prices are serially correlated; variance ratio tests and other related tests overwhelmingly reject Samuelson`s martingale hypothesis. Second, foreign exchange futures prices do not appear to have continuous sample path; the evidence suggests the presence of a jump component, which may lead to pricing bias when applying the standard Black-Scholes option pricing formula to foreign exchange markets.

Currency Derivatives

Currency Derivatives PDF Author: David F. DeRosa
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780471252672
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 414

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Book Description
Mit über einer Billion US Dollar Umsatz stellt der Devisenhandel weltweit den größten Markt dar. In diesem Markt sind Währungsderivate zu einem bevorzugten Handelsinstrument geworden, das von Großbanken, Brokerhäusern, Hedge Funds (spekulativ ausgerichteter Fonds, der mit Hilfe von Derivaten seine Gewinne zu optimieren versucht) und Handelsberatern eingesetzt wird. Zwar sind diese Instrumente heute komplexer denn je, aber sie sind ein unverzichtbares Mittel des Risikomanagements im Devisenhandel. Herausgegeben von führenden Devisenhändlern und Analysten, ist dieses Buch Basislektüre für jeden, der sich in diesem Bereich bewegt. Eine Sammlung der 20 besten und meist zitierten Beiträge zu Währungsderivaten, Preistheorie und Anwendungen von Hedging-Methoden (10/98)

IMF Working Paper

IMF Working Paper PDF Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Finance
Languages : en
Pages : 700

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Book Description


IMF Staff papers

IMF Staff papers PDF Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451947224
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 208

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Book Description
This paper examines the role of the labor market in the transmission process of adjustment policies in developing countries. It begins by reviewing the recent evidence regarding the functioning of these markets. It then studies the implications of wage inertia, nominal contracts, labor market segmentation, and impediments to labor mobility for stabilization policies. The effect of labor market reforms on the flexibility of the labor market and the evidence regarding the wage and employment effects of trade reform are discussed next. The last part of the paper identifies a variety of issues that may require further investigation.

Publications of the International Monetary Fund

Publications of the International Monetary Fund PDF Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : International finance
Languages : en
Pages : 196

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Book Description


Jumps and Stochastic Volatility

Jumps and Stochastic Volatility PDF Author: David S. Bates
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange
Languages : en
Pages : 72

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Book Description
An efficient method is developed for pricing American options on combination stochastic volatility/jump-diffusion processes when jump risk and volatility risk are systematic and nondiversifiable, thereby nesting two major option pricing models. The parameters implicit in PHLX-traded Deutschemark options of the stochastic volatility/jump- diffusion model and various submodels are estimated over 1984-91, and are tested for consistency with the $/DM futures process and the implicit volatility sample path. The parameters implicit in options are found to be inconsistent with the time series properties of implicit volatilities, but qualitatively consistent with log- differenced futures prices. No economically significant implicit expectations of exchange rate jumps were found in full-sample estimation, which is consistent with the reduced leptokurtosis of $/DM weekly exchange rate changes over 1984-91 relative to earlier periods.

Martingale Methods in Financial Modelling

Martingale Methods in Financial Modelling PDF Author: Marek Musiela
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3662221322
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 521

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Book Description
A comprehensive and self-contained treatment of the theory and practice of option pricing. The role of martingale methods in financial modeling is exposed. The emphasis is on using arbitrage-free models already accepted by the market as well as on building the new ones. Standard calls and puts together with numerous examples of exotic options such as barriers and quantos, for example on stocks, indices, currencies and interest rates are analysed. The importance of choosing a convenient numeraire in price calculations is explained. Mathematical and financial language is used so as to bring mathematicians closer to practical problems of finance and presenting to the industry useful maths tools.

Noise Trading, Central Bank Interventions, and the Informational Content of Foreign Currency Options

Noise Trading, Central Bank Interventions, and the Informational Content of Foreign Currency Options PDF Author: Christian Pierdzioch
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9783540427452
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 232

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Book Description
A flexible instrument to insure against adverse exchange rate movements are options on foreign currency. Often a relatively simple foreign currency option valuation model is used to address issues related to the pricing and hedging of such options. The results of many empirical studies document that real-world foreign currency option premia deviate from those predicted by the baseline model. In the first part of the book, it is shown that a noise trader model can help to explain the observed mispricing of the baseline foreign currency option pricing model. In the second part of the book, it is studied how policymakers can exploit the pricing errors of the baseline model. In particular, it is examined how option pricing theory can be applied to assess the effectiveness of central bank interventions in the foreign exchange market. To this end, a model is constructed to analyze the effectiveness of the interventions conducted by the Deutsche Bundesbank during the Louvre period.

Research Activities of the IMF, January 1991-December 1998

Research Activities of the IMF, January 1991-December 1998 PDF Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 9781557758606
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 124

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Book Description
A selective index of major research papers prepared by IMF staff in 1991-98.