Judgment-based and Reasoning-based Stopping Rules in Decision Making Under Uncertainty PDF Download
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Author: Kathryn Ritgerod Nickles
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 488
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Book Description
Author: Kathryn Ritgerod Nickles
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 488
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: David R. Mandel
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
ISBN: 288963034X
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 224
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Book Description
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309180538
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 124
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Book Description
Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Author: Richard O. Young
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317417178
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 481
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Book Description
This updated and expanded edition of Persuasive Communication offers a comprehensive introduction to persuasion and real-world decision making. Drawing on empirical research from social psychology, neuroscience, business communication research, cognitive science, and behavioral economics, Young reveals the thought processes of many different audiences—from investors to CEOs—to help students better understand why audiences make the decisions they make and how to influence them. The book covers a broad range of communication techniques, richly illustrated with compelling examples, including resumes, speeches, and slide presentations, to help students recognize persuasive methods that do, and do not, work. A detailed analysis of the emotions and biases that go into decision making arms students with perceptive insights into human behavior and helps them apply this understanding with various decision-making aids. Students will learn how to impact potential employers, clients, and other audiences essential to their success. This book will prove fascinating to many, and especially useful for students of persuasion, rhetoric, and business communication.
Author: Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262331713
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 350
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Book Description
An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Author: Fred D. Davis
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030010872
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 278
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Book Description
This book presents the proceedings of the NeuroIS Retreat 2018, June 19-21, Vienna, Austria, reporting on topics at the intersection of Information Systems (IS) research, neurophysiology and the brain sciences. Readers will discover the latest findings from top scholars in the field of NeuroIS, which offer detailed insights on the neurobiology underlying IS behavior, essential methods and tools and their applications for IS, as well as the application of neuroscience and neurophysiological theories to advance IS theory.
Author: Derek J. Koehler
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell
ISBN: 0470752912
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 680
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Book Description
The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in the study of how people make evaluations, draw inferences, and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and conflict. Contains contributions by experts from various disciplines that reflect current trends and controversies on judgment and decision making. Provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making and portrays the major findings in the field. Presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making. Explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law.
Author: Gabriella Pasi
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319769413
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 852
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Book Description
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 40th European Conference on IR Research, ECIR 2018, held in Grenoble, France, in March 2018. The 39 full papers and 39 short papers presented together with 6 demos, 5 workshops and 3 tutorials, were carefully reviewed and selected from 303 submissions. Accepted papers cover the state of the art in information retrieval including topics such as: topic modeling, deep learning, evaluation, user behavior, document representation, recommendation systems, retrieval methods, learning and classication, and micro-blogs.
Author: Richard O. Young
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 113691188X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 525
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Book Description
How Audiences Decide: A Cognitive Approach to Business Communication is a comprehensive introduction to persuasive communication in the context of business. It summarizes relevant theories and findings from the fields of cognitive science, social cognition, leadership, team cognition, psycholinguistics, and behavioral economics. By illuminating the thought processes of many different audiences, from consumers to Wall Street analysts to CEOs, it helps communicators better understand why audiences make the decisions they make and how to influence them. The book covers a broad range of communication techniques—including those concerning persuasive speaking and writing, interviews and group meetings, content and style, typography and nonverbal behaviors, charts and images, rational arguments and emotional appeals—and examines the empirical evidence supporting each of them.
Author: Reid Hastie
Publisher: SAGE
ISBN: 1412959039
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 393
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Book Description
In the Second Edition of Rational Choice in an Uncertain World the authors compare the basic principles of rationality with actual behaviour in making decisions. They describe theories and research findings from the field of judgment and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well. The Second Edition includes: - more coverage on the role of emotions, happiness, and general well-being in decisions - a summary of the new research on the neuroscience of decision processes - more discussion of the adaptive value of (non-rational heuristics) - expansion of the graphics for decision trees, probability trees, and Venn diagrams.
