Author: Eliphas Ndou
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319467026
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 546
Book Description
This book offers a comprehensive empirical analysis of South African inflation dynamics, using a variety of techniques including counterfactual analysis. The authors elaborate the roles in inflation of thresholds, nonlinearities and asymmetries introduced by economic conditions such as the size of exchange rate changes and volatility, GDP growth, inflation, output gap, credit growth, sovereign spreads and fiscal policy, providing new policy evidence on the impact of these. Ndou and Gumata apply techniques to determine the prevalence of updating inflation expectations, and reconsider the propagation effects of a number of inflation risk factors. Asking to what extent the evidence points to a need to enforce price stability and the anchoring of inflation expectation, the book fills existing gaps in South African Policy, and maintains a clear argument that price stability is consistent with the 3 to 6 per cent inflation target range, and that threshold application should form an important aspect of policy analysis in periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. As such, the book serves as an excellent reference text for academic and policy discussions alike.
Inflation Dynamics in South Africa
Author: Eliphas Ndou
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319467026
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 546
Book Description
This book offers a comprehensive empirical analysis of South African inflation dynamics, using a variety of techniques including counterfactual analysis. The authors elaborate the roles in inflation of thresholds, nonlinearities and asymmetries introduced by economic conditions such as the size of exchange rate changes and volatility, GDP growth, inflation, output gap, credit growth, sovereign spreads and fiscal policy, providing new policy evidence on the impact of these. Ndou and Gumata apply techniques to determine the prevalence of updating inflation expectations, and reconsider the propagation effects of a number of inflation risk factors. Asking to what extent the evidence points to a need to enforce price stability and the anchoring of inflation expectation, the book fills existing gaps in South African Policy, and maintains a clear argument that price stability is consistent with the 3 to 6 per cent inflation target range, and that threshold application should form an important aspect of policy analysis in periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. As such, the book serves as an excellent reference text for academic and policy discussions alike.
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319467026
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 546
Book Description
This book offers a comprehensive empirical analysis of South African inflation dynamics, using a variety of techniques including counterfactual analysis. The authors elaborate the roles in inflation of thresholds, nonlinearities and asymmetries introduced by economic conditions such as the size of exchange rate changes and volatility, GDP growth, inflation, output gap, credit growth, sovereign spreads and fiscal policy, providing new policy evidence on the impact of these. Ndou and Gumata apply techniques to determine the prevalence of updating inflation expectations, and reconsider the propagation effects of a number of inflation risk factors. Asking to what extent the evidence points to a need to enforce price stability and the anchoring of inflation expectation, the book fills existing gaps in South African Policy, and maintains a clear argument that price stability is consistent with the 3 to 6 per cent inflation target range, and that threshold application should form an important aspect of policy analysis in periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. As such, the book serves as an excellent reference text for academic and policy discussions alike.
On the Drivers of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa
Author: Anh D. M. Nguyen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513583018
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28
Book Description
The perception that inflation dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are driven by supply shocks implies a limited role for monetary policy in influencing inflation in the short run. SSA’s rapid growth, its integration with the global economy, changes in the policy frameworks, among others, in the last decade suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed. We quantitatively analyze inflation dynamics in SSA using a Global VAR model, which incorporates trade and financial linkages among economies, as well as the role of regional and global demand and inflationary spillovers. We find that in the past 25 years, the main drivers of inflation have been domestic supply shocks and shocks to exchange rate and monetary variables; but that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks to inflation has fallen. Domestic demand pressures as well as global shocks, and particularly shocks to output, however, have played a larger role in driving inflation over the last decade. We also show that country characteristics matter—the extent of oil and food imports, vulnerability to weather shocks, economic importance of agriculture, trade openness and policy regime, among others, help in explaining the role of shocks.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513583018
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28
Book Description
The perception that inflation dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are driven by supply shocks implies a limited role for monetary policy in influencing inflation in the short run. SSA’s rapid growth, its integration with the global economy, changes in the policy frameworks, among others, in the last decade suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed. We quantitatively analyze inflation dynamics in SSA using a Global VAR model, which incorporates trade and financial linkages among economies, as well as the role of regional and global demand and inflationary spillovers. We find that in the past 25 years, the main drivers of inflation have been domestic supply shocks and shocks to exchange rate and monetary variables; but that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks to inflation has fallen. Domestic demand pressures as well as global shocks, and particularly shocks to output, however, have played a larger role in driving inflation over the last decade. We also show that country characteristics matter—the extent of oil and food imports, vulnerability to weather shocks, economic importance of agriculture, trade openness and policy regime, among others, help in explaining the role of shocks.
Inflation Dynamics in South Africa
Author: Temitope Lydia Leshoro
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 368
Book Description
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 368
Book Description
Empirical Analysis of Inflation Dynamics
Author: Alexander Boateng
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (finances).
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (finances).
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
South Africa: Selected Issues
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451966763
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 97
Book Description
This Selected Issues paper for South Africa presents a quantitative analysis of inflation dynamics in the country. The conduct of monetary policy has been complicated by a variety of unanticipated events that have had important effects on inflation. Exposed to exchange rate and other shocks, the model confirms that a delayed policy response to inflation shocks leads to persistently higher inflation rates and, subsequently, to a sharp real contraction of the economy.
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451966763
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 97
Book Description
This Selected Issues paper for South Africa presents a quantitative analysis of inflation dynamics in the country. The conduct of monetary policy has been complicated by a variety of unanticipated events that have had important effects on inflation. Exposed to exchange rate and other shocks, the model confirms that a delayed policy response to inflation shocks leads to persistently higher inflation rates and, subsequently, to a sharp real contraction of the economy.
Is the Phillips Curve Framework Still Useful for Understanding Inflation Dynamics in South Africa?
Author: Byron Botha
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
South Africa
Author: Nir Klein
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463902158
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
Book Description
The study looks at the cyclical behavior of the markups and assesses its impact on inflation dynamics. The analysis finds that the aggregate level of the private sector's markup is relatively high, thus pointing to the lack of strong competition in South Africa's product markets. Additionally, the results suggest that the markups tend to move in a countercyclical manner, with a short-term positive impact on inflation. This implies that the countercyclical pattern of the markups is one factor among others that contribute to the relatively weak output gap-inflation co-movement. In the context of South Africa's inflation targeting framework, the counter-cyclical markups may also generate an asymmetric response of monetary policy to the fluctuations in economic activity.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463902158
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
Book Description
The study looks at the cyclical behavior of the markups and assesses its impact on inflation dynamics. The analysis finds that the aggregate level of the private sector's markup is relatively high, thus pointing to the lack of strong competition in South Africa's product markets. Additionally, the results suggest that the markups tend to move in a countercyclical manner, with a short-term positive impact on inflation. This implies that the countercyclical pattern of the markups is one factor among others that contribute to the relatively weak output gap-inflation co-movement. In the context of South Africa's inflation targeting framework, the counter-cyclical markups may also generate an asymmetric response of monetary policy to the fluctuations in economic activity.
Achieving Price, Financial and Macro-Economic Stability in South Africa
Author: Nombulelo Gumata
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 303066340X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 556
Book Description
This book explores the macro-financial effects of central bank balance sheets, macro-prudential tools, and financial regulation in South Africa. How employment can be maximised while keeping inflation low and stable is examined in relation to the structural changes required to alter the composition of South African bank balance sheets. Quantitative methods and approaches are utilised to highlight the impact of suggested policies. This book aims to outline strategies and policy interventions that can help achieve the National Development Plan in South Africa. It will be of interest to researchers and policymakers working within development economics, African economics, development finance, and financial policy.
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 303066340X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 556
Book Description
This book explores the macro-financial effects of central bank balance sheets, macro-prudential tools, and financial regulation in South Africa. How employment can be maximised while keeping inflation low and stable is examined in relation to the structural changes required to alter the composition of South African bank balance sheets. Quantitative methods and approaches are utilised to highlight the impact of suggested policies. This book aims to outline strategies and policy interventions that can help achieve the National Development Plan in South Africa. It will be of interest to researchers and policymakers working within development economics, African economics, development finance, and financial policy.
Inequality, Output-Inflation Trade-Off and Economic Policy Uncertainty
Author: Eliphas Ndou
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030198030
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 507
Book Description
This book focuses on income inequality, output-inflation trade-off and economic policy uncertainty in South Africa. Tight monetary and macroprudential policies raise income inequality. Income inequality transmits monetary policy and macroprudential policy shocks to real economic activity. Economic policy uncertainty influences the dynamics in the lending rate margins, inflation expectations, credit, pass-through of the repo rate to bank lending rates and companies’ cash holdings. The trade-off between output and inflation and output growth persistence vary with inflation regimes. Stimulatory demand policy shocks are less effective in high inflation regime. High income inequality raises consumption inequality, which raises demand for credit, but price stability matters in this link. Increased bank concentration raises income inequality, lowers economic growth and employment rate. Elevated economic policy uncertainty lowers output growth, lowers capital formation, reduces credit and raises companies’ cash holdings. Increased companies’ cash holdings reduce capital formation and impact the transmission of expansionary monetary policy shocks to real economic activity. This book shows there is an inflation level within the target band below it which lowers income inequality, while raising GDP growth and employment. Thus price stability, economic policy uncertainty and income inequality matter for the efficient transmission of policy shocks.
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030198030
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 507
Book Description
This book focuses on income inequality, output-inflation trade-off and economic policy uncertainty in South Africa. Tight monetary and macroprudential policies raise income inequality. Income inequality transmits monetary policy and macroprudential policy shocks to real economic activity. Economic policy uncertainty influences the dynamics in the lending rate margins, inflation expectations, credit, pass-through of the repo rate to bank lending rates and companies’ cash holdings. The trade-off between output and inflation and output growth persistence vary with inflation regimes. Stimulatory demand policy shocks are less effective in high inflation regime. High income inequality raises consumption inequality, which raises demand for credit, but price stability matters in this link. Increased bank concentration raises income inequality, lowers economic growth and employment rate. Elevated economic policy uncertainty lowers output growth, lowers capital formation, reduces credit and raises companies’ cash holdings. Increased companies’ cash holdings reduce capital formation and impact the transmission of expansionary monetary policy shocks to real economic activity. This book shows there is an inflation level within the target band below it which lowers income inequality, while raising GDP growth and employment. Thus price stability, economic policy uncertainty and income inequality matter for the efficient transmission of policy shocks.
Inflation Dynamics in the West African Economic and Monetary Union
Author: Cecilia Melo Fernandes
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 19
Book Description
This paper analyzes recent inflation developments in the WAEMU. As in all inflation spikes in the past two decades, food is the main driver of inflation. The contribution from energy prices is also increasing, while inflation contagion effects are still limited to a few sectors. The share of professionals that believe that inflation will continue above the target within the one-year horizon is at high levels compared to 2021. Based on projections from two models, the chapter also evaluates the appropriate monetary policy responses to the recent inflationary pressures. The results suggest that inflation is expected to converge to its target range within 24 months given the reduction of exogenous shocks weighing-in on food and energy prices, the exhaustion of base effects as well as a reduction in supply and demand imbalances. However, numerous external and internal factors affect inflation prospects and should be carefully monitored, given the pronounced uncertainty surrounding geopolitical and economic developments, and further monetary policy tighten would be necessary unless downside risks to forecasts for baseline inflation and external buffers improve.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 19
Book Description
This paper analyzes recent inflation developments in the WAEMU. As in all inflation spikes in the past two decades, food is the main driver of inflation. The contribution from energy prices is also increasing, while inflation contagion effects are still limited to a few sectors. The share of professionals that believe that inflation will continue above the target within the one-year horizon is at high levels compared to 2021. Based on projections from two models, the chapter also evaluates the appropriate monetary policy responses to the recent inflationary pressures. The results suggest that inflation is expected to converge to its target range within 24 months given the reduction of exogenous shocks weighing-in on food and energy prices, the exhaustion of base effects as well as a reduction in supply and demand imbalances. However, numerous external and internal factors affect inflation prospects and should be carefully monitored, given the pronounced uncertainty surrounding geopolitical and economic developments, and further monetary policy tighten would be necessary unless downside risks to forecasts for baseline inflation and external buffers improve.