Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts PDF full book. Access full book title Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts by Patricia C. O'brien. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Patricia C. O'brien
Publisher: Forgotten Books
ISBN: 9781333752545
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 38
Get Book Here
Book Description
Excerpt from Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts: A Nine-Industry Study Second, because the error terms in the fixed effects model are severely non normal, a non-parametric approach is taken. The non-parametric tests compare, for each industry, the observed distribution of analysts' average (through time) ranks with the distribution which would be expected if all analysts are alike, and each year is an independent observation. The non-parametric tests fail to reject the hypothesis that the observed distribution is identical to the expected distribution, in eight of the nine industries. Continuing research will investigate the source of the differences in the single industry in which the null hypothesis is rejected. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
Author: Patricia C. O'brien
Publisher: Forgotten Books
ISBN: 9781333752545
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 38
Get Book Here
Book Description
Excerpt from Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts: A Nine-Industry Study Second, because the error terms in the fixed effects model are severely non normal, a non-parametric approach is taken. The non-parametric tests compare, for each industry, the observed distribution of analysts' average (through time) ranks with the distribution which would be expected if all analysts are alike, and each year is an independent observation. The non-parametric tests fail to reject the hypothesis that the observed distribution is identical to the expected distribution, in eight of the nine industries. Continuing research will investigate the source of the differences in the single industry in which the null hypothesis is rejected. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
Author: Kimberly Dunn
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
We study the effects of company diversification and analyst diversification on consensus and individual analysts' earnings forecasts. Company diversification is measured both as the number of segments reported by a company and as an entropy measure which decomposes the total diversification into an unrelated and a related component. For the consensus forecast analysis, we examine the effect of these variables both on forecast accuracy and inter-analyst earnings forecast disagreement. For the individual analyst forecast analysis, we examine the effect of the number of business segments followed by an analyst and analyst diversification on individual analyst forecast accuracy. We develop a new measure of individual analyst's diversification which takes into consideration the business segments of all companies followed by an analyst, and its interaction with the business segments of the company whose earnings are being forecasted. The results of our study show that as the level of a company's total diversification increases, analysts are less accurate in their earnings forecasts and have more inter-analyst disagreement. Analysts are less accurate and have more disagreement as unrelated diversification increases. A company's related diversification has no significant impact on these variables. For both forecast accuracy and inter-analyst disagreement, the impact of a unit of unrelated diversification is significantly higher than that of the impact of a unit of related diversification. For individual analysts' earnings forecasts, as the number of business segments followed by an analyst increases and as his level of diversification increases, his earnings forecast accuracy significantly declines. The results of our study have implications for researchers who use analysts? earnings forecasts in their studies, investors who use these forecasts for company valuation and for brokerage firms in evaluating individual analysts.
Author: Tanja Klettke
Publisher: Springer Science & Business
ISBN: 3658056347
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 120
Get Book Here
Book Description
Financial analysts provide information in their research reports and thereby help forming expectations of a firm’s future business performance. Thus, it is essential to recognize analysts who provide the most precise forecasts and the accounting literature identifies characteristics that help finding the most accurate analysts. Tanja Klettke detects new relationships and identifies two new determinants of earnings forecast accuracy. These new determinants are an analyst’s “general forecast effort” and the “number of supplementary forecasts”. Within two comprehensive empirical investigations she proves these measures’ power to explain accuracy differences. Tanja Klettke’s research helps investors and researchers to identify more accurate earnings forecasts.
Author: Sundaresh Ramnath
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 1601981627
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 125
Get Book Here
Book Description
Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.
Author: PATRICIA C. O'BRIEN
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 44
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Marc Andrew Giullian
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
Financial analysts are among the most influential group of users of financial accounting information. Because the FASB has advocated usefulness as the "overriding criterion" (FASB, 1980, p.26) to judge accounting choices, accountants have a stake in understanding this important group of financial statement users. The majority of existing accounting research concerning financial analysts focuses on aggregated analysts' earnings forecasts rather than individual analysts' forecasts. Studies in accounting have documented the superiority of aggregated analysts' earnings forecasts relative to models. This is in contrast to the robust result from years of judgment/decision making (JDM) research that human predictions are inferior to statistical model predictions. Prior accounting studies have also documented that analysts exhibit optimism when forecasting earnings. Humans can make a significant contribution to accurate forecasting in spite of cognitive limitations. Some skills people bring to bear are cue identification, rapid adaptability to environmental changes and the evaluation of qualitative factors. Although statistical models are not well-equipped to utilize qualitative factors and be adaptable, they do offer consistency and significant computational power. Thus, the strengths of humans and statistical models in forecasting are complementary. This research documents the incremental predictive ability of both individual financial analysts and statistical models in forecasting earnings. It also provides evidence that both individual financial analysts' and statistical models' incremental predictive ability varies between industries. In addition, tests show a pessimistic bias for individual analysts, contrary to prior studies. Additional evidence is presented regarding forecast accuracy for four different forecast generation methods.
Author: Wenjuan Xie
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 138
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Dimitris Kenourgios
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 20
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper presents an analysis of two forms of overreaction (generalized overreaction and overreaction to prior earnings changes) in analysts' earnings forecasts for the UK stock market, using a sample of individual forecasts of earning per share from a British investment bank over the period 1989-2002. Given that previous UK empirical research over 1980s and mid '90s has provided limited and contradictory findings, we investigate whether and how overreaction of analysts forecasts varies across forecast horizons, firm size (small and large) and growth opportunities (high and low P/E ratio) in order to provide further and comparable evidence. Overall, our findings support the generalized overreaction hypothesis but reject the firm size effect, the overreaction for high P/E ratio companies and the higher overreaction regarding the forecasting horizon.
Author: Min-Hsien Chiang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper aims to investigate the effect of financial analysts' earnings forecast on the institutional trading. In specific, we address three issues regarding the effect of financial analysts earnings forecast on the institutional holdings: (1) Do institutional investors pay more attention and more sensitive to analyst earnings forecast with higher forecast accuracy? (2) Do institutional investors prefer analysts with higher accuracy on earnings forecast? (3) Do institutional investors prefer analysts with bold attitude toward earnings forecast? Firstly, our empirical results show that institutional investors do pay attention to the accuracy of financial analysts earnings forecast. That is, firms with higher accuracy of analysts' earnings forecast tend to attract more institutional investors' attention and thus higher institutional holdings. Secondly, our results evidence that institutional investors prefer analysts with higher accuracy in their earnings forecast. That means institutional investors tend to follow more closely those analysts whose earnings forecasts are more accurate. Finally, we find that institutional investors in general are indifferent to the boldness of analysts earnings forecast. However, institutional investors will pay more attention and follow more closely those analysts whose earnings forecasts are not only accurate but also close to the consensus.
Author: Guido Bolliger
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 42
Get Book Here
Book Description
