Incorporating Financial Sector Risk Into Monetary Policy Models PDF Download
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Author: Mr.Dale F. Gray
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463921284
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
This paper builds a model of financial sector vulnerability and integrates it into a macroeconomic framework, typically used for monetary policy analysis. The main question to be answered with the integrated model is whether or not the central bank should include explicitly the financial stability indicator in its monetary policy (interest rate) reaction function. It is found in general, that including distance-to-default (dtd) of the banking system in the central bank reaction function reduces both inflation and output volatility. Moreover, the results are robust to different model calibrations: whenever exchange-rate pass-through is higher; financial vulnerability has a larger impact on the exchange rate, as well as on GDP (or the reverse, there is more effect of GDP on bank's equity - i.e., what we call endogeneity), it is more efficient to include dtd in the reaction function.
Author: Mr.Dale F. Gray
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463921284
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
This paper builds a model of financial sector vulnerability and integrates it into a macroeconomic framework, typically used for monetary policy analysis. The main question to be answered with the integrated model is whether or not the central bank should include explicitly the financial stability indicator in its monetary policy (interest rate) reaction function. It is found in general, that including distance-to-default (dtd) of the banking system in the central bank reaction function reduces both inflation and output volatility. Moreover, the results are robust to different model calibrations: whenever exchange-rate pass-through is higher; financial vulnerability has a larger impact on the exchange rate, as well as on GDP (or the reverse, there is more effect of GDP on bank's equity - i.e., what we call endogeneity), it is more efficient to include dtd in the reaction function.
Author: Dale Gray
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Banks and banking, Central
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Scott Roger
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463931832
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
This paper surveys dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with financial frictions in use by central banks and discusses priorities for future development of such models for the purpose of monetary and financial stability analysis. It highlights the need to develop macrofinancial models which allow analysis of the macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy tools and to evaluate elements of the Basel III reforms as a priority. The paper also reviews the main approaches to introducing financial frictions into general equilibrium models.
Author: El Bachir Boukherouaa
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1589063953
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 9264273522
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 314
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Book Description
This report provides an assessment of how governments can generate inclusive economic growth in the short term, while making progress towards climate goals to secure sustainable long-term growth. It describes the development pathways required to meet the Paris Agreement objectives.
Author: Stefan Laseen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513571214
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
We introduce time-varying systemic risk in an otherwise standard New-Keynesian model to study whether a simple leaning-against-the-wind policy can reduce systemic risk and improve welfare. We find that an unexpected increase in policy rates reduces output, inflation, and asset prices without fundamentally mitigating financial risks. We also find that while a systematic monetary policy reaction can improve welfare, it is too simplistic: (1) it is highly sensitive to parameters of the model and (2) is detrimental in the presence of falling asset prices. Macroprudential policy, similar to a countercyclical capital requirement, is more robust and leads to higher welfare gains.
Author: Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484381130
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
We present evidence of a risk-taking channel of monetary policy for the U.S. banking system. We use confidential data on the internal ratings of U.S. banks on loans to businesses over the period 1997 to 2011 from the Federal Reserve’s survey of terms of business lending. We find that ex-ante risk taking by banks (as measured by the risk rating of the bank’s loan portfolio) is negatively associated with increases in short-term policy interest rates. This relationship is less pronounced for banks with relatively low capital or during periods when banks’ capital erodes, such as episodes of financial and economic distress. These results contribute to the ongoing debate on the role of monetary policy in financial stability and suggest that monetary policy has a bearing on the riskiness of banks and financial stability more generally.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498339174
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
MCM conducted a survey in December 2010 to take stock of international experiences with financial stability and the evolving macroprudential policy framework. The survey was designed to seek information in three broad areas: the institutional setup for macroprudential policy, the analytical approach to systemic risk monitoring, and the macroprudential policy toolkit. The survey was sent to 63 countries and the European Central Bank (ECB), including all countries in the G-20 and those subject to mandatory Financial Sector Assessment Programs (FSAPs). The target list is designed to cover a broad range of jurisdictions in all regions, but more weight is given to economies that are systemically important (see Annex for details). The response rate is 80 percent. This note provides a summary of the survey’s main findings.
Author: Signe Krogstrup
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513511955
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 58
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Book Description
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of this century. Mitigation requires a large-scale transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper provides an overview of the rapidly growing literature on the role of macroeconomic and financial policy tools in enabling this transition. The literature provides a menu of policy tools for mitigation. A key conclusion is that fiscal tools are first in line and central, but can and may need to be complemented by financial and monetary policy instruments. Some tools and policies raise unanswered questions about policy tool assignment and mandates, which we describe. The literature is scarce, however, on the most effective policy mix and the role of mitigation tools and goals in the overall policy framework.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498344062
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 74
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Book Description
Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
