Improvements to the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model, Including a Comparison of ASCE 7-05 to ASCE 7-10

Improvements to the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model, Including a Comparison of ASCE 7-05 to ASCE 7-10 PDF Author: Steven Andrew Bell
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Languages : en
Pages : 206

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Book Description
The Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model is a catastrophe model commissioned by the State of Florida with the primary purpose of predicting insured losses of residential buildings due to hurricanes. The model has been in a state of ongoing development since 2001, and is contributed to by several universities around the state of Florida. The model is comprised of three main components. The Meteorological Component predicts and models hurricane behavior. The Vulnerability Component predicts and models building damage given specific wind conditions. Lastly, the Actuarial Component takes data from the other two to predict and analyze economic losses. This paper presents several updates to the Vulnerability Component of the model. First, a more realistic cost analysis is presented, created based on information gathered from actual building contractors as well as RS Means. The new cost analysis includes updates such as unit costs that scale with repair size, considerations for actual roof repair methodology, and various other factors specific to the particular building requirements and market conditions of Florida. Second, an analysis of Contents (as well as ALE) vs. Building damage curves (aka Type 2 curves), which allow the Vulnerability Component of the model to be validated independently of the Meteorological Component, is presented. A procedure for their use in model validation is also given, along with a brief sample validation which illustrates the usefulness of the Type 2 curves in uncovering hidden issues with the model. Finally, a brief study analyzing the effects of the changes made to the wind provisions of ASCE 7-10 is presented. The study shows that the changes implemented in ASCE 7-10 will have little effect, in the case of low-rise, personal residential buildings, on actual building practices in the state of Florida.