Impacts of Changes in Regional Sugar and Ethanol Exports Upon Brazilian Overall Economy PDF Download
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Author: Heloisa Lee Burnquist
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 19
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Book Description
This paper estimates the impact of an increase in Brazilian sugar and ethanol demand for exports upon the countries' overall production and employment. The impacts were simulated considering each of the major cane producing areas of the country (Center-South and North-Northeast). An inter-regional input-output matrix for the Brazilian economy was used for that purpose. It was observed that a demand shock, resulting from an expansion of sugar exports presented an impact of greater magnitude upon the countries' production and employment when compared to the impact from an increase in ethanol. In addition, the results indicated that when the impact is generated at the North-Northeastern Brazil, production and employment is more affected than when it begins at the Center-South region of the country. The result of how the economic benefits are disseminated in the economy is important to identify policies and establish targets for regional production.
Author: Heloisa Lee Burnquist
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 19
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Book Description
This paper estimates the impact of an increase in Brazilian sugar and ethanol demand for exports upon the countries' overall production and employment. The impacts were simulated considering each of the major cane producing areas of the country (Center-South and North-Northeast). An inter-regional input-output matrix for the Brazilian economy was used for that purpose. It was observed that a demand shock, resulting from an expansion of sugar exports presented an impact of greater magnitude upon the countries' production and employment when compared to the impact from an increase in ethanol. In addition, the results indicated that when the impact is generated at the North-Northeastern Brazil, production and employment is more affected than when it begins at the Center-South region of the country. The result of how the economic benefits are disseminated in the economy is important to identify policies and establish targets for regional production.
Author: Brent Borrell
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Azucar - Brasil
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
By changing its policy, Brazil could increase its sugar exports greatly. The world price would decline, but Brazil's sugar revenues would increase.
Author: Márcia Azanha Ferraz Dias de Moraes
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3319031406
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 225
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Book Description
The success of Brazil in the large-scale production and use of fuel ethanol has been widely discussed and analyzed by other countries interested in adopting policies designed to encourage the use of biofuels. Within this context, certain questions arise: Could the Brazilian experience be replicated in other countries? What were the conditions that enabled the creation of the Brazilian Proálcool (National Ethanol Program and what lessons can be learned? To examine these issues, it is important to understand the functioning of the key, interconnected markets (those for sugarcane, sugar and ethanol), which, from their inception, were the objects of extensive government intervention until 1999. Two main conditions enabled the creation of Proálcool: robust production of sugarcane and sugar (tightly regulated by the government, which applied the numerous regulations then in place); and the military regime that was in place at the time, whose decision-making and enforcement powers were quite broad, facilitating the carrying out of the necessary actions, as well as making it easier to coordinate the activities of the various stakeholders and sectors involved. This book increases understanding of the functioning of the sugarcane supply chain in Brazil, not only during the phase of government intervention but also in recent years (in the free-market environment). The lessons, positive and negative, gleaned from the Brazilian experience can contribute to reflection on and the development of alternative modalities of biofuel production in other countries, making the book of interest to scholars and policy-makers concerned with biofuel and renewable resources as well as economic development.
Author: Dusan Drabik
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Sugarcane in Brazil is processed into sugar and/or ethanol, often in flex plants that can switch between the two products. We develop an economic model of flex plants, export demands, and two domestic fuel demand curves for a blend of ethanol with gasoline consumed by conventional cars, and ethanol consumed only by flex cars. We analyze the market impacts of the following policies: the blend mandate; fixing gasoline prices below world prices; the high gasoline tax; and a higher tax exemption for ethanol blended with gasoline. Because Brazilian and U.S. ethanol prices have become linked, a change in Brazilian ethanol policy or a shock in world sugar markets can now impact U.S. ethanol and corn prices. We show that in theory, each policy analyzed has an ambiguous impact on ethanol and sugar prices. Empirically, however, a low gasoline tax and a high tax exemption for ethanol used in the fuel blend reduce ethanol and sugar prices; this contradicts conventional wisdom. Overall, we find that policy reforms implemented in 2010 offset the ethanol price increase by about 27% due to outward shifts in fuel transportation and sugar export demand curves, and due to a reduced sugarcane supply caused by bad weather. Our model illustrates the importance of Brazil's ethanol policies on world commodity markets; it also provides insight into how the Brazilian government can adjust policies to better control domestic inflation while minimizing impacts on investment.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Annelies Deuss
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Since 2001, Brazil has experienced a sharp increase in sugarcane production due to the upsurge in demand for sugar and ethanol, two products derived from sugarcane. While the increase in sugarcane production has led to income and employment opportunities in the sugar and ethanol sector, the benefits of sugarcane expansion could vary significantly by the region where sugarcane is cultivated. This dissertation consists of three studies that examine the economic impacts of the recent sugarcane expansion in Brazil. Whereas previous studies only show associations between sugarcane expansion and economic indicators, this research establishes a causal relationship using estimators based on the propensity score. The propensity score is defined in this research as the probability that a municipality expands sugarcane production, given a set of observable characteristics. One of these characteristics is the suitability of a municipality to grow sugarcane. Data on suitability of land were recently published at the national level. The first study analyzes whether municipalities in Sao Paulo state that expanded sugarcane production between 2002 and 2006 as a result experienced higher economic growth. The results indicate that there is no statistically significant impact of sugarcane expansion on GDP per capita growth. The second study examines the economic growth impacts of the increased sugarcane production in the different sugarcane producing regions in Brazil. The findings show that sugarcane expansion led to GDP per capita growth in three regions: in Brazil as a whole, in the North-Northeast and in the Center-South excluding Sao Paulo. In addition, it is demonstrated that this latter region could benefit from future sugarcane expansions. The final study investigates the underlying reasons for the findings in the first study. It examines the impact of sugarcane expansion in Sao Paulo state on growth in GDP per capita, in employment and in wages in the different sectors of the economy. The results suggest that sugarcane expansion has positive impacts on local economies in Sao Paulo state. Further research with updated data is needed to establish whether the positive influences at sector level affected total GDP data in lagged terms.
Author: Harry de Gorter
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
The lack of growth in the Brazilian sugarcane-ethanol complex since the 2008 financial crisis has been blamed on policies: lower mandate, holding gasoline prices below world levels, high fuel taxes, and inadequate fuel tax exemptions for ethanol. This paper develops an empirical model of the Brazilian fuel-ethanol-sugar complex to analyze the impacts of these policies. Unlike biofuel mandates and tax exemptions elsewhere, Brazil's fuel-ethanol-sugar markets and fuel policies are unique such that each policy, in theory, has an ambiguous impact on the market price of ethanol and hence on sugarcane and sugar prices. The results indicate two policies that seemingly help the ethanol industry do otherwise in reality: low gasoline taxes and high anhydrous tax exemptions lower ethanol prices. But higher mandates, hydrous ethanol tax exemptions, and gasoline prices had the expected impact of increasing ethanol and sugar prices. Eliminating Brazilian ethanol tax exemptions and mandates reduces ethanol prices by 21 percent. Observed changes in prices are explained by outward shifts in fuel transportation and sugar export demand curves, and bad weather reducing sugarcane supply.
Author: De Gorter Harry
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The lack of growth in the Brazilian sugarcane-ethanol complex since the 2008 financial crisis has been blamed on policies: lower mandate, holding gasoline prices below world levels, high fuel taxes, and inadequate fuel tax exemptions for ethanol. This paper develops an empirical model of the Brazilian fuel-ethanol-sugar complex to analyze the impacts of these policies. Unlike biofuel mandates and tax exemptions elsewhere, Brazil's fuel-ethanol-sugar markets and fuel policies are unique such that each policy, in theory, has an ambiguous impact on the market price of ethanol and hence on sugarcane and sugar prices. The results indicate two policies that seemingly help the ethanol industry do otherwise in reality: low gasoline taxes and high anhydrous tax exemptions lower ethanol prices. But higher mandates, hydrous ethanol tax exemptions, and gasoline prices had the expected impact of increasing ethanol and sugar prices. Eliminating Brazilian ethanol tax exemptions and mandates reduces ethanol prices by 21 percent. Observed changes in prices are explained by outward shifts in fuel transportation and sugar export demand curves, and bad weather reducing sugarcane supply.
Author: Cinthia Cabral da Costa
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 13
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Book Description
The sugarcane sector in Brazil has been achieving large increases in production since the beginning of the 2000s, owing to the deregulation of its two main products: sugar and ethanol. This growth has been driven more by the ethanol production, which grew at a rate of 13% per annum (between 2000 and 2009), than by sugar, which grew at an annual rate of 8% over the same period. Nevertheless, instability in the supply of ethanol is still a problem in the industry. Structural changes, such as the mechanization of sugarcane harvesting, are also in progress. Taking into account the future demands for sugar and ethanol and structural changes in projections, made by industry representatives for the years 2015 and 2020, this article employs inuput-output analysis to estimate the impact of these projections on the Brazilian economy. The results show that in 2010, with a production of R$ 66.6 billion for sugar and R$ 36.2 billion for ethanol (at 2010 prices), the total impact on the economy was about R$ 374.6 billion in Total Output (TO), R$ 210 billion in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), R$ 62.4 billion in remuneration to employees, and a gain of 5.1 million jobs, per annum. For 2015, the estimated economic impact on TO, GDP and employee earnings was 56% higher than the values for 2010. As for 2020, the projections showed that the increases were in the range from 109 to 117% in scenario 1, or 91 to 98% in scenario 2. For job numbers, the impact in 2015 was 48% higher than that reported for 2010, while in 2020 it was between 82 to 99% higher. It was also observed that the income effect of the shocks in the ethanol and sugar sectors was the most significant part of the predicted impact on the number of jobs created in the economy. The results showed, therefore, the importance of the sugarcane industry in the economy, emphasizing the need for government policies to foster the growth of this sector.
Author: Cinthia Cabral da Costa
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Sustainable energy strategies require decision-makers in government, industry, academia and civil society alike to make choices among tradeoffs. Within the transport sector alone, ethanol has been shown to be the dominant solution among viable, low carbon options to date, yet questions remain over the economic and ecological impacts of this industry. In Brazil - the largest producer of sugarcane-based ethanol and a country with over three decades of ethanol development - we find a strong basis for evaluating the ethanol industry's role in a national economy. In the mid 1970's, Brazilian ethanol production received an important boost with the launch of the "Proálcool" program. The ethanol industry has subsequently evidenced flux until its consolidation in the period following 2000. Over the course of three decades, economic, institutional, technological and environmental determinants have factored in the success of Brazilian ethanol diffusion. In economic terms, price tradeoffs for ethanol vs. sugar and ethanol vs. gasoline played a role in scale-up of the biofuel together with balance of payment considerations. From an institutional standpoint, support for the Proálcool program, deregulation of the sugar-cane sector in the 1990's and fuel pump adaptations also factored. With respect to technology, the development of flex fuel cars, greater use of mechanized harvesting, and launch of domestic, co-generated, electrical power were key drivers. Finally, in environmental terms, challenges associated with pollution and public health in major cities as well as questions related to climate change gained visibility. In this paper, we analyze a set of input-output tables for the Brazilian economy from 1975 to 2008, taking the above factors into consideration. Deriving a series of indicators, such as multipliers and linkages, we study the evolution of the ethanol sector's role in the Brazilian economy and its relation to the productive structure of the country.
