Author: Don Harding
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691167087
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 232
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Book Description
The global financial crisis highlighted the impact on macroeconomic outcomes of recurrent events like business and financial cycles, highs and lows in volatility, and crashes and recessions. At the most basic level, such recurrent events can be summarized using binary indicators showing if the event will occur or not. These indicators are constructed either directly from data or indirectly through models. Because they are constructed, they have different properties than those arising in microeconometrics, and how one is to use them depends a lot on the method of construction. This book presents the econometric methods necessary for the successful modeling of recurrent events, providing valuable insights for policymakers, empirical researchers, and theorists. It explains why it is inherently difficult to forecast the onset of a recession in a way that provides useful guidance for active stabilization policy, with the consequence that policymakers should place more emphasis on making the economy robust to recessions. The book offers a range of econometric tools and techniques that researchers can use to measure recurrent events, summarize their properties, and evaluate how effectively economic and statistical models capture them. These methods also offer insights for developing models that are consistent with observed financial and real cycles. This book is an essential resource for students, academics, and researchers at central banks and institutions such as the International Monetary Fund.
Author: Karim Barhoumi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498317170
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 14
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Book Description
This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric approaches. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor’s benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI captures turning points in global trade with an average lead between 2 and 3 months. We also show that this cyclical indicator is able to track the annual growth rate in global trade, suggesting that the recent slowdown is due in part to certain cyclical factors. This new tool can provide policy makers with valuable foresight into the future direction of economic activity by tracking world trade more efficiently.
Author: Olivier de Bandt
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642153402
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 416
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Book Description
During the recession in the years 2008-2009, the most severe for mature economies in the post-war period, housing markets were often mentioned as having a special responsibility. The objective of this book is to shed light on the cyclical behaviour of the housing markets, its fundamental determinants in terms of supply and demand characteristics, and its relationship with the overall business cycle. The co-movements of house prices across countries are also considered, as well as the channel of transmission of house price changes to the rest of the economy. Particular attention is paid to the effects on private consumption, through possible wealth effects. The book is a compilation of original papers produced by economists and researchers from the four main national central banks in the euro area, also with the participation of leading academics.
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484312430
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Book Description
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the cyclical recovery in the euro area is firming and becoming broad based. Lower energy prices, supportive policies, stronger labor markets and a recovery in credit growth have boosted domestic demand, especially private consumption. The near-term outlook is favorable, with growth of 1.9 percent expected in 2017 and 1.7 percent in 2018. Although headline inflation picked up in the first half of 2017 owing to higher energy prices, core inflation has remained persistently low. The improving near-term outlook is clouded by significant downside risks, especially in the medium and long term, amid thin policy buffers.
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 9264099077
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 388
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Book Description
This book presents the proceedings of the 25th CIRET Conference, entitled "Business Surveys and Empirical Analysis of Economic and Social Survey Data" was hosted by OECD and INSEE in Paris, France in 2000.
Author: Irakli Kovzanadze
Publisher: iUniverse
ISBN: 1532047029
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 175
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Book Description
Almost ten years have passed since the onset of the global economic crisis, but scientists, businesspeople, bankers, and politicians continue to argue about its causes and whether it could have been prevented. The anticrisis measures that were taken also remain in dispute, and if you ask ten different economists which direction the economy is going, youll likely get ten different answers. Irakli Kovzanadze, a career banker and financier, examines the crisis, including its effects on the worlds social and political development in this important book. He highlights the following: causes of the crisis, including a dangerous triad of deregulation, financial innovation, and the speculative nature of doing business anticrisis measures at the national, regional, and international levels measures for reforming rating agencies that occupy an exceptionally important place in the modern global economy. From the origins and development of the crisis in the United States of America and Europe, to its ultimate spread, and on to ways the crisis was overcome, this book is an essential resource for aspiring macroeconomists, geopoliticians, bankers, students, and business professionals.
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513590863
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 78
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Book Description
This paper discusses the robust growth that continues in most Central and Southeastern European economies as well as in Turkey. Accommodative macroeconomic policies, improving financial intermediation, and rising real wages have been behind the region’s mostly consumption-driven rebound, while private investment remained subdued. In the near-term, strong domestic demand is expected to continue supporting growth amid continued low or negative inflation. The Russian economy went through a sharp contraction last year amid plunging oil prices and sanctions. Other CIS countries were hurt by domestic political and financial woes, as well as by weak demand from Russia. In 2016, output contraction is projected to moderate to around 11⁄2 percent from 41⁄4 percent in 2015 as the shocks that hit the CIS economies gradually reverberate less and activity stabilizes. In the baseline, a combination of supportive monetary policy and medium-term fiscal consolidation remains valid for many economies in the region.
Author: B. Brown
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137371498
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 243
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Book Description
Euro Crash is a unique analysis of the European Monetary Union, arguing that it was not sub-optimal currency areas or profligate government spending but instead fatal flaws in monetary design and an appalling series of policy mistakes by the European Central Bank that lead to the current and ongoing Eurozone crisis.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic journals
Languages : en
Pages : 1196
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Book Description
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 103
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Book Description
The euro area economy has shown resilience in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the largest terms of trade loss in several decades, reflecting strong policy efforts to secure gas supplies and cushion disposable incomes. Nonetheless, activity has weakened, with the economy slipping into a mild technical recession in early 2023, and inflation is far above target. While headline inflation has started to decline with the easing of supply bottlenecks and energy prices, core inflation is proving more persistent. Euro area banks are well capitalized and liquid overall, but the rapid tightening of monetary policy after a prolonged period of accommodation can expose pockets of weakness in the financial system, including in the nonbank sector.
