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Author: Ralf Brueggemann
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Book Description
Many contemporaneously aggregated variables have stochasticaggregation weights. We compare different forecasts for such variables including univariate forecasts of the aggregate, a multivariate forecast of the aggregate that uses information from the disaggregate components, a forecast which aggregates a multivariate forecast of the disaggregate components and the aggregation weights, and a forecast which aggregates univariate forecasts for individual disaggregate components and the aggregation weights. In empirical illustrations based on aggregate GDP and money growth rates, we find forecast efficiency gains from using the information in the stochastic aggregation weights. A Monte Carlo study confirms that using the information on stochastic aggregation weights explicitly may result in forecast mean squared error reductions.
Author: Ralf Brueggemann
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Book Description
Many contemporaneously aggregated variables have stochasticaggregation weights. We compare different forecasts for such variables including univariate forecasts of the aggregate, a multivariate forecast of the aggregate that uses information from the disaggregate components, a forecast which aggregates a multivariate forecast of the disaggregate components and the aggregation weights, and a forecast which aggregates univariate forecasts for individual disaggregate components and the aggregation weights. In empirical illustrations based on aggregate GDP and money growth rates, we find forecast efficiency gains from using the information in the stochastic aggregation weights. A Monte Carlo study confirms that using the information on stochastic aggregation weights explicitly may result in forecast mean squared error reductions.
Author: Helmut Lütkepohl
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642615848
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 336
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Book Description
This study is concerned with forecasting time series variables and the impact of the level of aggregation on the efficiency of the forecasts. Since temporally and contemporaneously disaggregated data at various levels have become available for many countries, regions, and variables during the last decades the question which data and procedures to use for prediction has become increasingly important in recent years. This study aims at pointing out some of the problems involved and at pro viding some suggestions how to proceed in particular situations. Many of the results have been circulated as working papers, some have been published as journal articles, and some have been presented at conferences and in seminars. I express my gratitude to all those who have commented on parts of this study. They are too numerous to be listed here and many of them are anonymous referees and are therefore unknown to me. Some early results related to the present study are contained in my monograph "Prognose aggregierter Zeitreihen" (Lutkepohl (1986a)) which was essentially completed in 1983. The present study contains major extensions of that research and also summarizes the earlier results to the extent they are of interest in the context of this study.
Author: Ralf Brüggemann
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
ISBN: 3110510847
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 176
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Book Description
Forecasts guide decisions in all areas of economics and finance. Economic policy makers base their decisions on business cycle forecasts, investment decisions of firms are based on demand forecasts, and portfolio managers try to outperform the market based on financial market forecasts. Forecasts extract relevant information from the past and help to reduce the inherent uncertainty of the future. The topic of this special issue of the Journal of Economics and Statistics is the theory and practise of forecasting and forecast evaluation and an overview of the state of the art of forecasting.
Author: Anestis Antoniadis
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319187325
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 344
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Book Description
The chapters in this volume stress the need for advances in theoretical understanding to go hand-in-hand with the widespread practical application of forecasting in industry. Forecasting and time series prediction have enjoyed considerable attention over the last few decades, fostered by impressive advances in observational capabilities and measurement procedures. On June 5-7, 2013, an international Workshop on Industry Practices for Forecasting was held in Paris, France, organized and supported by the OSIRIS Department of Electricité de France Research and Development Division. In keeping with tradition, both theoretical statistical results and practical contributions on this active field of statistical research and on forecasting issues in a rapidly evolving industrial environment are presented. The volume reflects the broad spectrum of the conference, including 16 articles contributed by specialists in various areas. The material compiled is broad in scope and ranges from new findings on forecasting in industry and in time series, on nonparametric and functional methods and on on-line machine learning for forecasting, to the latest developments in tools for high dimension and complex data analysis.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 442
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 398
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Mathematical statistics
Languages : en
Pages : 948
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Book Description
The Current Index to Statistics (CIS) is a bibliographic index of publications in statistics, probability, and related fields.
Author: Cars Hommes
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0444641327
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 836
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Book Description
Handbook of Computational Economics: Heterogeneous Agent Modeling, Volume Four, focuses on heterogeneous agent models, emphasizing recent advances in macroeconomics (including DSGE), finance, empirical validation and experiments, networks and related applications. Capturing the advances made since the publication of Volume Two (Tesfatsion & Judd, 2006), it provides high-level literature with sections devoted to Macroeconomics, Finance, Empirical Validation and Experiments, Networks, and other applications, including Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations, Market Design and Electricity Markets, and a final section on Perspectives on Heterogeneity. Helps readers fully understand the dynamic properties of realistically rendered economic systems Emphasizes detailed specifications of structural conditions, institutional arrangements and behavioral dispositions Provides broad assessments that can lead researchers to recognize new synergies and opportunities
Author: Francis Vitek
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484315383
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 89
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Book Description
This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model encompasses an approximate linear panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a monetary transmission mechanism, a fiscal transmission mechanism, and extensive macrofinancial linkages, both within and across economies. A variety of monetary policy analysis, fiscal policy analysis, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment.
Author: Engelbert Plassmann
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642573363
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 209
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Book Description
The introduction of a single European currency constitutes a remarkable instance of internationalization of monetary policy. Whether a concomitant internationalization can be detected also in the econometric foundations of monetary policy is the topic dealt with in this book. The basic theoretical ingredients comprise a data-driven approach to econometric modelling and a generalized approach to cross-sectional aggregation. The empirical result is a data-consistent structural money demand function isolated within a properly identified, dynamic macroeconomic system for Europe. The book itself evolved from a research project within the former Son derforschungsbereich SFB 178 "Internationalization of the Economy" at the University of Konstanz. Its finalization entails a due amount of gratitude to be extended into several directions: I am personally indebted, first of all, to my academic supervisor, Professor Dr. Nikolaus Laufer, for originally inspiring this work and for meticulously perusing its eventual result. Professor Dr. Win fried Pohlmeier, as a second supervisor, provided valuable confidence bounds around an earlier draft. The comments of both supervisors contributed substantially to the present shape of the book. I am institutionally indebted to the University of Konstanz, notably its Faculty of Economics and Statistics, for continuous provision of an excellent research environment, and to the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft in Bonn for generous sponsorship of the former SFB, whose financial support dur ing that period is gratefully acknowledged. I am also indebted to Dresdner Bank AG Frankfurt, Risk Methodology Trading, for benign tolerance of all distractions associated with the preparation of the final manuscript.
