Fixing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve PDF Download
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Author: Richard Dennis (Economist)
Publisher:
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Richard Dennis (Economist)
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Paolo Guarda
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPC) differs from the conventional expectations-augmented Phillips curve in that it is forward-looking and links inflation to a measure of marginal cost instead of unemployment or the output gap. More fundamentally, the NPC is derived from New Keynesian models that combine nominal rigidities with individual optimising behaviour and model-consistent (rational) expectations. Because the NPC is grounded in micro-theory (unlike the conventional expectations-augmented Phillips curve), it is robust to some forms of the Lucas critique and may serve to analyse the impact structural changes such as increased price flexibility may have on inflation. New Keynesian Phillips curve estimates for Luxembourg using the Galí and Gertler (1999) hybrid form suggest that firms change prices often but tend to use backward-looking rules-of-thumb instead of resetting prices optimally using forward-looking expectations. In terms of policy implications, although the results suggest prices in Luxembourg are relatively flexible, the prevalence of backward-looking price setting implies greater inflation persistence and a higher sacrifice ratio attached to disinflationary monetary policy. From the perspective of individual firms, backward-looking price setting may be a rational response in a very small open economy because of its vulnerability to external shocks. Small size and openness plausibly imply higher costs of collecting information and lower benefits from optimal price setting.
Author: Zineddine Alla
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513573039
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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This paper analyzes the use of unconventional policy instruments in New Keynesian setups in which the ‘divine coincidence’ breaks down. The paper discusses the role of a second instrument and its coordination with conventional interest rate policy, and presents theoretical results on equilibrium determinacy, the inflation bias, the stabilization bias, and the optimal central banker’s preferences when both instruments are available. We show that the use of an unconventional instrument can help reduce the zone of equilibrium indeterminacy and the volatility of the economy. However, in some circumstances, committing not to use the second instrument may be welfare improving (a result akin to Rogoff (1985a) example of counterproductive coordination). We further show that the optimal central banker should be both aggressive against inflation, and interventionist in using the unconventional policy instrument. As long as price setting depends on expectations about the future, there are gains from establishing credibility by using any instrument that affects these expectations.
Author: Masaaki Suzuki
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Author: Aurelijus Dabusinskas
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Author: Assaf Razin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Capital market
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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The paper extends Woodford's (2000) analysis of the closed economy Phillips curve to an open economy with both commodity trade and capital mobility. We show that consumption smoothing, which comes with the opening of the capital market, raises the degree of strategic complementarity among monopolistically competitive suppliers, thus rendering prices more sticky and magnifying output responses to nominal GDP shocks.
Author: Peter Tillmann
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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The canonical New Keynesian model specifies inflation.
Author: Michael T. Kiley
Publisher:
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Category : Keynesian economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Author: Sandeep Mazumder
Publisher:
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Several authors have argued that if the labor share of income is used as the proxy for real marginal cost, then the sticky-price version of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve does a good job of approximating US inflation dynamics. However, this paper argues that the labor share is an inappropriate measure of real marginal cost for two reasons: it is countercyclical whereas theory predicts marginal cost should be procyclical, and it assumes that labor can be costlessly adjusted at a fixed real wage rate. Relaxing this assumption to a more realistic one leads to a measure of marginal cost that is markedly procyclical. Testing this improved measure of marginal cost then produces results that are contradictory to the entire underlying model of the NKPC. Thus I conclude that the NKPC fails to give a sound explanation of inflation dynamics.
Author: Luca Bindelli
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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We propose a new test of the forward-looking Phillips curve for a panel of 10 OECD countries. Structural parameter estimates are obtained using an extremum estimation method which is applied in the frequency domain. Such an estimator has the advantage of enabling the econometrician to focus on subsets of frequencies for which the model is specifically designed. For most countries, and once we control for a lagged inflation term, we find that the majority of the price setters are backward looking. In addition, our evidence is compatible with the hypothesis that prices are adjusted according to a fixed, time invariant pricing rule.
