Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-exporting Countries PDF Download
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Author: Aasim M. Husain
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
This paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes affect the economic cycle only through their impact on fiscal policy. Once fiscal policy changes are removed, oil price shocks do not have a significant independent effect on the economic cycle.
Author: Aasim M. Husain
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
This paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes affect the economic cycle only through their impact on fiscal policy. Once fiscal policy changes are removed, oil price shocks do not have a significant independent effect on the economic cycle.
Author: Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498315992
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
We examine the existing fiscal policy paradigm in commodity-exporting countries. First, we argue that its centerpiece—the permanent income hypothesis (PIH)—is not consistent with either intergenerational equity or long-term sustainability in the presence of uncertainty. Policies to achieve these goals need to be more prudent and better anchored than the PIH. Second, we point out the presence of a volatility tradeoff between government spending and wealth and re-assess long-held views on the appropriate fiscal anchors, the vice of procyclicality, and the (im)possibility of simultaneously smoothing consumption and ensuring intergenerational equity and sustainability. Finally, we propose what we call a prudent wealth stabilization policy that would be more consistent with long-term fiscal policy goals, yet relatively simple to implement and communicate.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451962533
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
This paper presents a detailed analysis of the average fiscal policy responses of oil producing countries (OPCs) to the recent oil price cycle. We find that OPCs worsened their non-oil primary balances substantially during 2003-2008 driven by an increase in primary spending. However, this trend was partially reversed when oil prices went down in 2009. We also find evidence that fiscal policy has been procyclical and has hence exacerbated the fluctuations in economic activity. In addition, we estimate that a small reduction in oil prices could lead to very large financing needs in the near future. Finally, we show that long-term fiscal sustainability positions in OPCs have worsened.
Author: Stephen Snudden
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475513380
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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Book Description
Structural budget-balance rules with countercyclical elements appear well suited to stabilize the macroeconomic volatility of oil-exporting countries and have been used successfully by other commodity exporters. Using a global DSGE model, the efficient design of such rules is found to depend on the source of oil price fluctuations and the oil exporters’ structural characteristics. The output-inflation tradeoff is of particular concern for oil exporters relative to non-oil exporters due to the pass through of oil prices into headline inflation. Fiscal rules are best when coordinated with inflation targeting monetary policy, but are still desirable for fixed exchange rate regimes.
Author: Mr.Vito Tanzi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1557751714
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 244
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Book Description
Based on papers presented at the 44th Congress of the international Institute of Public Finance, this book, edited by Vito Tanzi, deals with public finance and macroeconomic policy in open, developing economies, with case studies of Chile, Mexico, Turkey, Korea, and the Arab oil exporting countries.
Author: Mr.Alberto Behar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475535384
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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Book Description
After the decline in oil prices, many oil exporters face the need to improve their external balances. Special characteristics of oil exporters make the exchange rate an ineffective instrument for this purpose and give fiscal policy a sizeable role. These conclusions are supported by regression analysis of the determinants of the current account balance and of the trade balance. The results show little or no relationship with the exchange rate and, especially for the less diversified oil exporters (including the Gulf Cooperation Council), a strong relationship with the fiscal balance or government spending.
Author: Mauricio Villafuerte
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
Author: Benn Eifert
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Fiscal policy
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
Author: Ms.Sheila Bassett
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451855850
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 72
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Book Description
Assessing the sustainability of a given fiscal policy is especially important for countries that depend on income from exhaustible resources. Political and growth pressures may push governments to raise expenditure when revenue from exhaustible resources rises, but cutting outlays when price swings reduce income is often difficult. Traditional fiscal accounting may give a misleading view of policy sustainability. This paper argues that for countries in which a significant proportion of government revenue is derived from the exploitation of an exhaustible natural resource, fiscal policy sustainability can best be assessed within a permanent income framework that takes into account total government wealth, including the imputed wealth from reserves of natural resources. Using this framework, the paper takes a sample of six countries where government revenue from petroleum extraction is significant and draws conclusions about the sustainability of their fiscal policies during 1980-92.
Author: Amir Sadeghi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484336275
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 27
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Book Description
This paper examines the impact of government size on how output and government expenditure respond to oil price shocks in 28 oil-exporting countries between 1990 and 2016. Results suggest that if the size of government (measured by government expenditure-to-(non-oil) GDP ratio) is larger, non-oil output growth, in response to a positive oil price shock, tends to be greater and output volatility higher. Furthermore, I find that an unexpected increase in oil price leads to expansion in government expenditure and the expansion is larger, the larger is the government. This paper provides empirical evidence for direct correlation between government size and macroecnomic stability in oil-exporting countries. The findings imply that fiscal consolidation and economic diversification help to narrow down economic exposure to exogenous oil price shocks and reduce volatility in non-oil output.
