Evaluation of County Yield Trending Methods for Area Yield Crop Insurance Products PDF Download
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Author: Dean Arthur Dittus
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781109818871
Category : Corn
Languages : en
Pages : 53
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Book Description
In an attempt to reduce adverse selection, moral hazard, and administrative costs the Risk Management Agency (RMA) developed area yield crop insurance products. Area yield products require RMA to accurately predict county average yields two years in advance. Using data from 105 Kansas counties for four major crops, this study evaluates four yield trending models (linear time trend, precipitation adjusted time trend, Olympic and simple average) combined with three extrapolation techniques to identify the best out-of-sample estimation model based on the lowest out-of-sample error alone. The optimal number of years of historical data (N) to use in the models was also considered. Contrary to logical assumption, a lower value of N performed better for corn, grain sorghum, and soybeans. In general, the precipitation adjusted model out performed the linear time trend. The Olympic average model performed surprisingly well, indicating that a method of eliminating outliers may provide superior results.
Author: Dean Arthur Dittus
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781109818871
Category : Corn
Languages : en
Pages : 53
Get Book Here
Book Description
In an attempt to reduce adverse selection, moral hazard, and administrative costs the Risk Management Agency (RMA) developed area yield crop insurance products. Area yield products require RMA to accurately predict county average yields two years in advance. Using data from 105 Kansas counties for four major crops, this study evaluates four yield trending models (linear time trend, precipitation adjusted time trend, Olympic and simple average) combined with three extrapolation techniques to identify the best out-of-sample estimation model based on the lowest out-of-sample error alone. The optimal number of years of historical data (N) to use in the models was also considered. Contrary to logical assumption, a lower value of N performed better for corn, grain sorghum, and soybeans. In general, the precipitation adjusted model out performed the linear time trend. The Olympic average model performed surprisingly well, indicating that a method of eliminating outliers may provide superior results.
Author: Mitchell Roznik
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This dissertation consists of three essays investigating improvements to crop insurance by applying weather data, satellite data, and other geospatial data. The first essay investigates the use of weather data and satellite data to improve a temperature-based crop insurance policy in Alberta, Canada. The analysis used advanced methods from geostatistics, including Universal Kriging and Generalized Additive Models. Results suggest that the more advanced interpolation methods reduced interpolation error and provided a more useful measure of temperature for insurance policies. The second essay evaluates a number of traditional crop yield updating methods and also proposes a new updating method that may be used to improve crop insurance. For illustration purposes, farm yield data is used from 1133 canola farms in Alberta, Canada from 2002 to 2017 (16 years) and national yield data from Statistics Canada are used to evaluate the yield trend updating methods. Crop yield updating methods are needed because improvements in technology have led to higher crop yields over time. Lower past yields need to be updated at higher levels to bring them up to the level of today's technology, otherwise the producer may be under insured. The updating approaches investigated are 10-year average (model A), national yield trend (model B), county yield trend (model C), and a new mixed method (model D). The results suggest that all four crop yield updating methods performed similarly. This analysis may be of interest to crop insurance analysts and policy makers in Canada, the United States, and other countries. The third essay investigates if higher satellite resolution can improve the accuracy of crop yield estimation. In the analysis, the years 2008-2018 of NASA's MODIS satellite image collection over the contiguous United States were examined for four crops: corn, soybeans, spring wheat, and winter wheat. Crop yields were regressed on a vegetation index (NDVI) at three satellite resolution levels (i.e., 1km, 500m, and 250m). Improvements in satellite resolution increased the relative accuracy of the crop yield estimation by improving the quality of the vegetation index (NDVI) measurements. Further improvements in yield estimation accuracy may be expected in the future as satellite resolution improves.
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 030946529X
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 149
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Book Description
The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is the primary statistical data collection agency within the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). NASS conducts hundreds of surveys each year and prepares reports covering virtually every aspect of U.S. agriculture. Among the small-area estimates produced by NASS are county-level estimates for crops (planted acres, harvested acres, production, and yield by commodity) and for cash rental rates for irrigated cropland, nonirrigated cropland, and permanent pastureland. Key users of these county-level estimates include USDA's Farm Services Agency (FSA) and Risk Management Agency (RMA), which use the estimates as part of their processes for distributing farm subsidies and providing farm insurance, respectively. Improving Crop Estimates by Integrating Multiple Data Sources assesses county-level crop and cash rents estimates, and offers recommendations on methods for integrating data sources to provide more precise county-level estimates of acreage and yield for major crops and of cash rents by land use. This report considers technical issues involved in using the available data sources, such as methods for integrating the data, the assumptions underpinning the use of each source, the robustness of the resulting estimates, and the properties of desirable estimates of uncertainty.
Author: United States. Congress. House. Committee on Agriculture. Subcommittee on General Farm Commodities and Risk Management
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
Author: Wolfram Schlenker
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022661980X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 316
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Book Description
Agricultural yields have increased steadily in the last half century, particularly since the Green Revolution. At the same time, inflation-adjusted agricultural commodity prices have been trending downward as increases in supply outpace the growth of demand. Recent severe weather events, biofuel mandates, and a switch toward a more meat-heavy diet in emerging economies have nevertheless boosted commodity prices. Whether this is a temporary jump or the beginning of a longer-term trend is an open question. Agricultural Productivity and Producer Behavior examines the factors contributing to the remarkably steady increase in global yields and assesses whether yield growth can continue. This research also considers whether agricultural productivity growth has been, and will be, associated with significant environmental externalities. Among the topics studied are genetically modified crops; changing climatic factors; farm production responses to government regulations including crop insurance, transport subsidies, and electricity subsidies for groundwater extraction; and the role of specific farm practices such as crop diversification, disease management, and water-saving methods. This research provides new evidence that technological as well as policy choices influence agricultural productivity.
Author: Dennis A. Shields
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781298049506
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work.As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Author: United States. Congress. House. Committee on Agriculture. Subcommittee on General Farm Commodities and Risk Management
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 88
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Book Description
Author: Olivier Mahul
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821382195
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 250
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Book Description
Governments in developing countries have been increasingly involved in the support of agricultural (crop and livestock) insurance programs in recent years. In their attempts to design and implement agricultural insurance, they have sought technical and financial assistance from the international community and particularly from the World Bank. One of the recurrent requests from governments regards international experience with agricultural insurance, not only in developed countries, where in some cases agricultural insurance has been offered for more than a century, but also in middleand low-income countries. Governments are particularly interested in the technical, operational, financial, and institutional aspects of public support to agricultural insurance. 'Government Support to Agricultural Insurance' informs public and private decision makers involved in agricultural insurance about recent developments, with a particular focus on middle- and low-income countries. It presents an updated picture of the spectrum of institutional frameworks and experiences with agricultural insurance, ranging from countries in which the public sector provides no support to those in which governments heavily subsidize agricultural insurance. This analysis is based on a survey conducted by the World Bank s agricultural insurance team in 2008 in 65 developed and developing countries. Drawing on the survey results, the book identifies some key roles governments can play to support the development of sustainable, affordable, and cost-effective agricultural insurance programs.
Author: United States. Congress. House. Committee on Agriculture. Subcommittee on General Farm Commodities and Risk Management
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 168
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