Ethnic polarization, potential conflict, and civil wars[ PDF Download
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Author: José García Montalvo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: José García Montalvo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Jose G. Montalvo
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Civil war
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.
Author: Jose G. Montalvo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Marta Reynal-Querol
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.
Author: Roy Licklider
Publisher: NYU Press
ISBN: 0814750974
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 367
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STOPPING THE KILLING travels from Latin America and the United States to Africa and the Middle East to grapple with the critical issue of civil wars and their powerful impact on the international scene.
Author: Michael F. Bleaney
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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We investigate the determinants of onset, duration and incidence of civil wars, and their sensitivity to different coding rules. Whatever the coding rule used, incidence of civil war is largely determined by poverty, country size, mountainous terrain and ethnic diversity. Poverty reduces the opportunity cost of rebellion, and mountainous terrain makes rebellions harder to defeat, while ethnic diversity creates potential conflict, since some linguistic groups may feel under-represented. Continuation and onset of civil war are non-overlapping subsets of incidence, depending on whether civil war occurred in the previous year. We exploit this aspect to test whether the determinants of continuation and onset are statistically significantly different. For four out of five coding rules, we cannot reject the null hypothesis of common determinants of civil war onset and continuation. This is the main contribution of the paper. Ethnic diversity is particularly high in Africa, where many civil wars occur, but we show that the significance of ethnic diversity is not just an unidentified Africa effect. Our estimated model works as well for Africa as for other areas. There is evidence that ethnic polarization matters as well as fractionalization. We show that polarization understates the propensity for conflict in societies with high ethnic diversity, where the polarization measure tends to be low, but otherwise outperforms fractionalization as a predictor of conflict. Mountainous terrain is generally not significant when ethnic polarization is included.
Author: Donald L. Horowitz
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780520058804
Category : Developing countries
Languages : en
Pages : 697
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Book Description
To understand ethnic conflict is an ambitious task, but by focusing on the logic and structure of conflict and discussing measures to abate it, Horowitz brings important insight into an urgent issues that affects all strata of society everywhere. Copyright © Libri GmbH. All rights reserved.
Author: Paul Collier
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Civil war
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
The duration of large-scale violent civil conflict increases substantially if the society is composed of a few large ethnic groups, if there is extensive forest cover, and if the conflict has commenced since 1980. None of these factors affect the initiation of conflict. And neither the duration nor the initiation of conflict is affected by initial inequality or political repression.
Author: Roy Licklider
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317969898
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 341
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Book Description
This volume attempts to critically analyze Chaim Kaufman's ideas from various methodological perspectives, with the view of further understanding how stable states may arise after violent ethnic conflict and to generate important debate in the area. After the Cold War, the West became optimistic of their ability to intervene effectively in instances of humanitarian disasters and civil war. Unfortunately, in the light of Bosnia, Somalia and Rwanda, questions of the appropriate course of action in situations of large scale violence became hotly contested. A wave of analysis considered the traditional approach of third parties attempting to ensure that the nation was built on the basis of a ruling power-share between the opposing sides of the conflict to be overwhelmingly problematic, and perhaps impossible. Within this movement Kaufman wrote a series of articles advocating separation of warring sides in order to provide stability in situations of large scale violence. His theorem provoked extreme responses and polarized opinion, contradicting the established position of promoting power-sharing, democracy and open economies to solve ethnic conflict and had policy implications for the entire international community. This book was previously published as a special issue of Security Studies.
Author: Nicholas Sambanis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
Partition theorists argue that when violent ethnic conflict is intense, civil politics cannot be restored unless ethnic groups are demographically separated into defensible enclaves. The empirical evidence suggests otherwise.Some theorists of ethnic conflict argue that the physical separation of warring ethnic groups may be the only possible solution to civil war. Without territorial partition and (if needed) forced population movements, they argue, ethnic war cannot end and genocide is likely.Other scholars have counterargued that partition only replaces internal war with international war, creates undemocratic successor states, and generates tremendous human suffering.So far this debate has been informed by few important case studies.Sambanis uses a new set of data on civil wars to identify the main determinants of ethnic partitions and to estimate their impact on the probability of wars recurrence, on low-grade ethnic violence, and on the political institutions of successor states.Sambanis's analysis is the first large-sample quantitative analysis of the subject, testing the propositions of partition theory and weighing heavily on the side of its critics.He shows that almost all the assertions of partition theorists fail to pass rigorous empirical tests.He finds that, on average, partition does not significantly reduce the probability of new violence. A better strategy might be to combine ethnic groups, but most important is to establish credible and equitable systems of governance.It is also important not to load the strategy with subjective premises about the necessity of ethnically pure states and about the futility of interethnic cooperation.This paper - a product of Public Economics, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the economics of civil wars. The author may be contacted at
[email protected].
