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Author: Mordecai Kurz
Publisher: Studies in Economic Theory
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 384
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Book Description
The book presents a new theory of expectations called "rational beliefs". Contrary to the standard theory which views the origin of uncertainty as being exogenous to the economic system, the theory of rational beliefs holds that a crucial component of social risk and economic fluctuations is endogenously propagated by variations in the state of beliefs of market participants. One part of the book provides an exposition of the foundation of the theory of rational beliefs. A second part explores the structure of general equilibrium models in which market participants hold rational beliefs. The "Applications" part of the book studies the behavior of asset prices and rates of return on financial assets. It demonstrates that endogenous uncertainty provides a uniform paradigm for the study of economic fluctuations.
Author: Mordecai Kurz
Publisher: Studies in Economic Theory
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 384
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Book Description
The book presents a new theory of expectations called "rational beliefs". Contrary to the standard theory which views the origin of uncertainty as being exogenous to the economic system, the theory of rational beliefs holds that a crucial component of social risk and economic fluctuations is endogenously propagated by variations in the state of beliefs of market participants. One part of the book provides an exposition of the foundation of the theory of rational beliefs. A second part explores the structure of general equilibrium models in which market participants hold rational beliefs. The "Applications" part of the book studies the behavior of asset prices and rates of return on financial assets. It demonstrates that endogenous uncertainty provides a uniform paradigm for the study of economic fluctuations.
Author: Ilaski Barañano
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
Author: Antonio Fatás
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
Author: John Stachurski
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642223974
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 454
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Book Description
Optimal growth theory studies the problem of efficient resource allocation over time, a fundamental concern of economic research. Since the 1970s, the techniques of nonlinear dynamical systems have become a vital tool in optimal growth theory, illuminating dynamics and demonstrating the possibility of endogenous economic fluctuations. Kazuo Nishimura's seminal contributions on business cycles, chaotic equilibria and indeterminacy have been central to this development, transforming our understanding of economic growth, cycles, and the relationship between them. The subjects of Kazuo's analysis remain of fundamental importance to modern economic theory. This book collects his major contributions in a single volume. Kazuo Nishimura has been recognized for his contributions to economic theory on many occasions, being elected fellow of the Econometric Society and serving as an editor of several major journals. Chapter “Introduction” is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513536990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author: Vincent Su
Publisher: Addison-Wesley
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 616
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Book Description
By explaining how, by how much, and why economics fluctuate during different stages of the business cycle, this work teaches students how to use, interpret and make macroeconomic forecasts while showing them the advantages and shortcomings of various forecasting methods. The book reviews the procedures used to construct econometric models and their general applications such as sensitivity studies and policy simulations with an emphasis on empirical evidence. It also examines the important role of macroeconomic data in economic fluctuations and forecasting, as well as the part played historically by business cycles in the US and the different theories that explain these cycles.
Author: Joseph E. Stiglitz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
Schumpeter argued that economic downturns had positive effects, in the incentives that it provided for firms to increase their efficiency. Part 1. provides a simple model confirming Schwnpeter's insight At thesame time, the model shows that there are real costs to economic fluctuations which extend well beyond the temporary losses in output and the economic waste resulting from unused resources: the future productivity of the economy is adversely affected, e.g, because of reduced expenditures on R&D. These long run losses are likely to be far more significant than any temporary gains from any induced cost cutting. While traditional Schumpeterian analyses have focused on the relationships between market structure and innovation, they have paid less attention to the relationship between innovation and capital market imperfections (resulting, in many cases, from problems of costly and imperfect information which are particularly important in the context of innovation). It is these capital market imperfections which give result in the deleterious effect of economic downturns on technological progress. Part II. of the paper shows that the nexus between fluctuations and innovation goes in both directions: fluctuations in economic activity not only cause fluctuations in innovation, fluctuations in innovation may give rise to fluctuations in economic activity. The positive feedback relationship between innovation and economic activity may, under a variety of conditions, give rise to multiple equilibria. There is no presumption that the free market, left to itself, will choose the best among them. Moreover, it is shown that under certain circumstances, the only market equilibrium entails economic fluctuations. It is the structure of the economy, not exogenous disturbances (as in real business cycle theory) which give rise to cyclical behavior.
Author: Dong-pyo Hong
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 140
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Book Description
Author: Filipe R. Campante
Publisher: LSE Press
ISBN: 1909890707
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 420
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Book Description
Macroeconomic policy is one of the most important policy domains, and the tools of macroeconomics are among the most valuable for policy makers. Yet there has been, up to now, a wide gulf between the level at which macroeconomics is taught at the undergraduate level and the level at which it is practiced. At the same time, doctoral-level textbooks are usually not targeted at a policy audience, making advanced macroeconomics less accessible to current and aspiring practitioners. This book, born out of the Masters course the authors taught for many years at the Harvard Kennedy School, fills this gap. It introduces the tools of dynamic optimization in the context of economic growth, and then applies them to a wide range of policy questions – ranging from pensions, consumption, investment and finance, to the most recent developments in fiscal and monetary policy. It does so with the requisite rigor, but also with a light touch, and an unyielding focus on their application to policy-making, as befits the authors’ own practical experience. Advanced Macroeconomics: An Easy Guide is bound to become a great resource for graduate and advanced undergraduate students, and practitioners alike.
Author: Mirko Abbritti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513583980
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 49
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Book Description
Standard New Keynesian (NK) models feature an optimal inflation target well below two percent, limited welfare losses from business cycle fluctuations and long-term monetary neutrality. We develop a NK framework with labour market frictions, endogenous productivity and downward wage rigidity (DWR) which challenges these results. The model features a non-vertical long-run Phillips curve between inflation and unemployment and a trade-off between price distortions and output hysteresis that change the welfare-maximizing inflation level. For a plausible set of parameters, the optimal inflation target is in excess of two percent, a target value commonly used across central banks. Deviations from the optimal target carry welfare costs multiple times higher than in traditional NK models. The main reason is that endogenous growth and DWR generate asymmetric and hysteresis effects on unemployment and output. Price level targeting or a Taylor-rule responding to the unemployment rate can handle better the asymmetric and hysteresis effects in our model and deliver significant welfare gains. Our results are robust to the inclusion of the effective lower bound on the monetary policy interest rate.
