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Author: Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780101797924
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 164
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Book Description
The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the June forecast, the UK economy has recovered more strongly than initially expected. The GDP growth was greater than expected in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but that unemployment levels have risen to levels that the June forecast did not anticipate until the middle of 2012. In general the world economy has also grown more strongly. CPI inflation has remained slightly higher than expected in June, whilst public finances have performed as forecast. The interest rates on UK debt are lower than in June. The OBR forecasts that the economy will continue to recover from the recession, but at a slower pace than the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. The publication is divided into 5 chapters with two annexes.
Author: Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780101797924
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 164
Get Book Here
Book Description
The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the June forecast, the UK economy has recovered more strongly than initially expected. The GDP growth was greater than expected in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but that unemployment levels have risen to levels that the June forecast did not anticipate until the middle of 2012. In general the world economy has also grown more strongly. CPI inflation has remained slightly higher than expected in June, whilst public finances have performed as forecast. The interest rates on UK debt are lower than in June. The OBR forecasts that the economy will continue to recover from the recession, but at a slower pace than the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. The publication is divided into 5 chapters with two annexes.
Author: Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780101857321
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 194
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Book Description
This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2017-18 and assesses whether the Government is on course to meet its medium-term fiscal objectives. The economy grew slightly more strongly in 2012 than expected but also shrank more than expected in the final quarter, and entered 2013 with reduced momentum. This leads the OBR to revise growth forecasts to 0.6 per cent in 2013 and 1.8 per cent in 2014. Thereafter the forecasts are unchanged rising to 2.8 percent by 2017. The pace of recovery is constrained by slow growth in productivity and real incomes, continued problems in the financial system, the fiscal consolidation and the outlook for the global economy. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is expected to be broadly flat this and next, then will resume its fall in 2014-15. Underlying deficits in PSNB are forecast to be very close to £120 billion in 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14. Tax receipts are £5.1 billion lower but central government departments are expected to underspend by almost £11 billion this year. The Government has a more than 50 per cent chance of meetings its fiscal mandate. Other forecasts by the OBR include: the ILO unemployment rate to peak at 8.0 per cent in 2014 before falling back to 6.9 per cent in 2017. Real wage growth is expected to be negative in 2013, only marginally positive in 2014 before picking up to 2 per cent in 2016. The publication contains: Chapter 1: Executive summary; Chapter 2: Developments since the December 2012 forecast; Chapter 3: Economic outlook; Chapter 4: Fiscal outlook; Chapter 5: Performance against the Government's fiscal targets; Annex A - Budget 2013 policy measures.
Author: Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780101803625
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 180
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Book Description
The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the November 2010 outlook, the key economic developments have been an unexpected fall in UK GDP in the final quarter of 2010, a rise in world oil prices, and higher-than-expected UK inflation. The labour market has performed as expected, with unemployment rising. The OBR endorse all but one of the costings for the tax and spending measures set out in Budget 2011 (HC 836, ISBN 9780102971033) as reasonable central estimates, though there are significant uncertainties around a number of them. The central forecast for economic growth in 2011 is revised down from 2.1 to 1.7 per cent. On the fiscal outlook, OBR forecast that public sector net borrowing will decline steadily as share of national income, but more slowly than forecast in November. The Government set itself two medium-term fiscal targets: to balance the cyclically-adjusted current budget by the end of a rolling five-year period; and to see public sector debt falling in 2015-16. Examining performance against these targets, the OBR believe there is a greater than 50 per cent probability of meeting both targets under current policy.
Author: Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780101830324
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 192
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Book Description
The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2016-17. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives. The OBR assessment of the outlook and risks for the UK economy is broadly unchanged since the November 2011 report. A technical recession will be avoided with positive growth in the first quarter of 2012. GDP will grow by 0.8% in 2012, 2% in 2013, 2.7% in 2014 and 3% for 2015-16 period. Public sector net borrowing is forecast to total £126 billion, 8.3% of GDP this year which is £1.1 billion less than the November forecast. For 2016-17, the PSNB is then forecast to decline to £21 billion. The fall in PSNB in 2012-13 is much larger than the OBR's November forecast due to the Government's decision to transfer the Royal Mail's historic pension deficit. The Chancellor's decision to cut 50% additional rate income tax to 45% has an estimated direct cost to the Exchequer of £0.1 billion in 2013-14. Other forecasts by the OBR, include: the ILO unemployment rate to rise from 8.4% to 8.7% over the coming year; household disposable income growth to be weak in 2012-13, but consumption to begin to offer some support to the recovery in the second half of the year; that the situation in the euro area remains a major risk to accurate forecasting. The publication is divided into five chapters: Chapter 1: Executive summary; Chapter 2: Developments since the November 2011 forecast; Chapter 3: economic outlook; Chapter 4: Fiscal outlook; Chapter 5: Performance against the Government's fiscal targest; Annex A - Budget 2012 policy measures.
Author: Great Britain: Parliament: House of Commons: Treasury Committee
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 0215071999
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 126
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Book Description
In this report the Treasury Committee makes recommendations on pensions, savings, HMRC debt recovery powers and housing. The greater flexibility and choice provided by the proposed pension reforms is welcomed. The 'guidance guarantee' is an important part of making sure that consumers benefit from increased choice. It should be measured against a set of recommended principles to ensure its effectiveness. The pensions reforms are also likely to lead to financial innovation. Following the financial crisis, and the mis-selling scandals, the reputation of the industry is under scrutiny. With regard to savings - double taxation has long been a deterrent to some forms of saving. With the enhanced flexibility for those saving there may now be scope in the long term for bringing the tax treatment of savings and pensions together to create a 'single savings' vehicle. The proposal to grant the power to HMRC to take money directly from people's bank accounts is extremely concerning. Exceptional powers such as this require prior independent oversight. With regard to housing, the Help to Buy scheme, at least in the short-to-medium term, could raise house prices. There is also the risk that withdrawal of Help to Buy may have a distorting effect on the housing market. The need to address these difficulties places a particular responsibility on the FPC, as well as the Government, for detecting and addressing the financial stability risks arising from the housing market. There are also reservations about any extension of retrospection in the tax system. Retrospection should be considered only in wholly exceptional circumstances
Author: Great Britain. Parliament. House of Commons. Treasury Committee
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 0215081536
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 88
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Book Description
The Treasury has again been unable to provide all the information needed by deadlines agreed with the OBR. The Government may, as the Chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility suggested, have decided that for political reasons this was a "price worth paying." This would set an undesirable precedent. The work of the Office for Budget Responsibility depends on the Treasury meeting the agreed deadlines. The Committee welcomes the OBR's innovation of providing uncertainty ratings for policy costings. The Committee recommends in future that the OBR publish a breakdown of the uncertainty rating assessment against the three criteria for all announced measures at Autumn Statements and Budgets. The Committee also welcomes the Government's continued publication of the distributional analysis of the Government's policy changes and recommends that the next Government continue with this important aid to transparency. The current inflation target set by the Government is symmetrical, and is 2 per cent at all times. Several witnesses alluded to the risks of very low inflation and subsequent deflation, including the Chancellor. The Chancellor has publicly welcomed the current level of inflation. This is not likely to help anchor inflationary expectations. The Governor of the Bank of England is required to write to explain to the Chancellor why inflation has fallen below 1 per cent. It is important to avoid mixed messages on inflation targeting. The Bank of England should undertake research on the effect of net migration, and the potential for future net migration, on the supply of labour and wage growth as part of the work on meeting the MPC's remit. The Treasury should ensure that discussions within Government on immigration policy fully consider the requirements of the economy.
Author: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Commercial statistics
Languages : en
Pages : 668
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Book Description
Author: Michael Burton
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137482850
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 220
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Book Description
This book considers the relationship between public spending and public deficit and the varying successes and difficulties governments have had in recent years to balance the two. As the fiscal crash of 2007/8 turned into the Great Recession and tax revenues tumbled, public finances across the UK, the USA and Europe plunged into deficit. Controversial attempts by governments to balance their budgets, commonly described as austerity by critics, had mixed success, politically and economically. Michael Burton outlines how politicians tackled the worst economic downturn in over half a century, drawing on previous examples of deficit-reduction to see how governments managed public finances in recessions and where austerity worked and where it failed. This two-part book, which for the first time provides an historical context to austerity, analyses firstly deficit-reduction in the UK in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2010-2016, and then looks at case studies in Europe, the USA, Canada and Asia Pacific. The author concludes that with the ageing population placing greater pressure through health and pensions on the public finances of the developed world, politicians and their electorates will have to learn to live long-term with austerity.
Author: Anthony Seldon
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107080614
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 645
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Book Description
The essential verdict on Britain's first coalition government since the Second World War delivered by an unrivalled team of experts.
Author: Office for Budget Responsibility
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780101848121
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 200
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Book Description
This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2017-18 and also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet its medium-term fiscal objectives. The economy has performed less strongly than forecast in March 2012 (Cm. 8303, ISBN 9780101830324) and GDP is forecast to fall by 0.1% in 2012 and then to grow by 1.2% in 2013, 2.0% in 2014, 2.7% in 2016 and 2.8% in 2017. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is forecast at £108 billion or 6.9% of GDP this year (excluding the transfer of the Royal Mail's historic pension deficit into the public sector). PSNB is then forecast to decline to £31 billion or 1.6% of GDP by 20017-18. Public sector net debt (PSND) is now expected to peak at 79.9% of GDP in 2015-16 meaning the Government will miss its supplementary target of PSND falling as a share of GDP between 2014-15 and 2015-16. Other developments since the March 2012 forecasts include: the unemployment rate has fallen to 7.8%, and the overall level of employment rose to 29.6 million in the three months to September. Around half the increase since 2011 has been driven by a rise in self-employment and part-time employees, though total hours worked per week have also risen. The situation in the euro area continues to weigh on confidence and trade. Inflation is also likely to be higher in the short term, reducing the growth of real household disposable income and consumption. The Government has a greater than 50% chance of hitting its fiscal mandate.
