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Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
ISBN: 0987507117
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 380
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Book Description
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
ISBN: 0987507117
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 380
Get Book
Book Description
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Author: J. Holton Wilson
Publisher: McGraw Hill
ISBN: 0077172027
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 527
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Book Description
The Sixth Edition of Business Forecasting is the most practical forecasting book on the market with the most powerful software—Forecast X. This edition presents a broad-based survey of business forecasting methods including subjective and objective approaches. As always, the author team of Wilson and Keating deliver practical how-to forecasting techniques, along with dozens of real world data sets while theory and math are held to a minimum. This Sixth Edition includes Forecast X software updated for Excel 2007 and Vista. Forecast X is the most comprehensive software tool available in this market and the new version is also backwards compatible for XP Excel 2003 systems. This Excel-based tool effectively uses wizards and many tools to make forecasting easy and understandable.
Author: Haim Y Bleikh
Publisher: Gower Publishing, Ltd.
ISBN: 1472400720
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 149
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Book Description
In Time Series Analysis and Adjustment the authors explain how the last four decades have brought dramatic changes in the way researchers analyze economic and financial data on behalf of economic and financial institutions and provide statistics to whomsoever requires them. Such analysis has long involved what is known as econometrics, but time series analysis is a different approach driven more by data than economic theory and focused on modelling. An understanding of time series and the application and understanding of related time series adjustment procedures is essential in areas such as risk management, business cycle analysis, and forecasting. Dealing with economic data involves grappling with things like varying numbers of working and trading days in different months and movable national holidays. Special attention has to be given to such things. However, the main problem in time series analysis is randomness. In real-life, data patterns are usually unclear, and the challenge is to uncover hidden patterns in the data and then to generate accurate forecasts. The case studies in this book demonstrate that time series adjustment methods can be efficaciously applied and utilized, for both analysis and forecasting, but they must be used in the context of reasoned statistical and economic judgment. The authors believe this is the first published study to really deal with this issue of context.
Author: Michael Samonas
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118921097
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 242
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Book Description
Risk analysis has become critical to modern financial planning Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling provides a complete framework of long-term financial forecasts in a practical and accessible way, helping finance professionals include uncertainty in their planning and budgeting process. With thorough coverage of financial statement simulation models and clear, concise implementation instruction, this book guides readers step-by-step through the entire projection plan development process. Readers learn the tools, techniques, and special considerations that increase accuracy and smooth the workflow, and develop a more robust analysis process that improves financial strategy. The companion website provides a complete operational model that can be customised to develop financial projections or a range of other key financial measures, giving readers an immediately-applicable tool to facilitate effective decision-making. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the need for experienced financial modelling professionals has steadily increased as organisations rush to adjust to economic volatility and uncertainty. This book provides the deeper level of understanding needed to develop stronger financial planning, with techniques tailored to real-life situations. Develop long-term projection plans using Excel Use appropriate models to develop a more proactive strategy Apply risk and uncertainty projections more accurately Master the Excel Scenario Manager, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, and more Risk plays a larger role in financial planning than ever before, and possible outcomes must be measured before decisions are made. Uncertainty has become a critical component in financial planning, and accuracy demands it be used appropriately. With special focus on uncertainty in modelling and planning, Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling is a comprehensive guide to the mechanics of modern finance.
Author: Thomas W. Moore
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 344
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Book Description
Author: Jae K. Shim
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9781574442519
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 312
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Book Description
A book on practical business forecasting belongs in the library of everyone interested in business. Forecasting is extremely important to finance and accounting executives, business economists and managers at all levels. Strategic Business Forecasting: The Complete Guide to Forecasting Real World Company Performance provides you with a working knowledge of the fundamentals of business forecasting that can be applied in the real world regardless of the size of the firm. The author explains the basic forecasting methodology and the practical applications. All aspects of business are discussed, making this a comprehensive and valuable reference. The author avoids theoretical and mathematical discussions to gets right into how, when , and why to use this book. Many practical examples, applications, illustrations, guidelines, measures, checklists, rules of thumb, tips, graphs, diagrams and tables aid your comprehension of the subject. The author displays and explains printouts obtained using many popular spreadsheet programs and software packages. The book goes far beyond just sales forecasting, encompassing a wide range of topics of major importance to practical business managers and finance professionals, including cash flow forecasting, cost prediction, earnings forecasts, bankruptcy prediction, foreign exchange forecasting, and interest rate forecasting. Written in an easy-to-read style, it is practical, current, and intriguing - a reference book to use throughout your business career.
Author: John Tennent
Publisher: The Economist
ISBN: 1610395115
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 304
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Book Description
Full of practical help on how to build the best, most flexible, and easy-to-use business models that can be used to analyze the upsides and downsides of any business project, this new edition of the Guide to Business Modeling is essential reading for the twenty-first century business leader. This radically revised guide to the increasingly important fine art of building business models using spreadsheets, the book describes models for evaluating everything from a modest business development to a major acquisition. • Fully Excel 2010 aligned with enhanced Excel and business content • More model evaluation techniques to help with business decision-making • Helpful key point summaries • New website from which model examples given in the book can be downloaded For anyone who wants to get ahead in business and especially for those with bottom-line responsibilities, this new edition of Guide to Business Modeling is the essential guide to how to build spreadsheet models for assessing business risks and opportunities.
Author: Jonathan Liau
Publisher: Tickling Keys, Inc.
ISBN: 1615471618
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 363
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Book Description
Just like a shovel, this book is genuinely ground-breaking. It hits you over the head with the proverbial gardening tool, implementing the way forward for financial modelling. Many working in banking and finance create their financial models in Excel and then import them into Power BI for graphical interpretation and further analysis. Not on our watch. We're going to jettison the universal spreadsheet and build the entire model in Power BI.We can't stress how far off the range we're taking the horses. If you are reading this, you are a true pioneer. Some have managed to build the odd financial statement in Power BI, but all three? This is where you can gain a major advantage in the workplace. If you build the calculations for financial statements in Power BI, you can produce statements by product, by customer, by geography... Get the picture? The limitation will be restricted to the granularity of the underlying data and your imagination.This book unearths some of the tricks, measures, logic and tools needed to build the model (there is no need to bury your mistakes). We just can't promise you a rose garden...With the usual jokes in spades, it's just a shame we couldn't get Doug (get it?) to assist.
Author: Keith Ord
Publisher: Wessex, Incorporated
ISBN: 9780999064917
Category : Business forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 588
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Book Description
This second edition of Principles of Business Forecasting by Keith Ord, Robert Fildes, and newest author Nikolaos Kourentzes serves as both a textbook for students and as a reference book for experienced forecasters in a variety of fields. The authors' motivation for writing this book, is to give users the tools and insight to make the most effective forecasts drawing on the latest research ideas, without being overly technical. The book is unique in its design, providing an introduction to both standard and advanced forecasting methods, as well as a focus on general principles to guide and simplify forecasting practice for those with little or no professional experience. One of the book's key strengths is the emphasis on real data sets, which have been updated in this second edition. These data sets are taken from government and business sources and are used throughout in the chapter examples and exercises. Forecasting techniques are demonstrated using a variety of software platforms beyond just "R," and a companion website provides easy-to-use Excel(R) macros that users can access to conduct analyses. Another important innovation in the second edition is the tutorial support for using open-source R programs, making all the methods available for use both in courses and practice. After the introductory chapters, the focus shifts to using extrapolative methods (exponential smoothing and ARIMA), then to statistical model-building using multiple regression. The authors also cover more novel techniques including data mining and judgmental methods, which are gaining increasing attention in applications. The second edition also offers expanded material on data analytics, in particular neural nets together with software, and applications that include new research findings relevant and immediately applicable to operations, such as hierarchical modeling and temporal aggregation. Finally, the authors examine organizational issues of implementation and the development of a forecasting support system within an organization; relevant to every manager, or future manager, who must make plans or decisions based on forecasts. Please take a moment to review the companion website for additional content in the Appendices (Basic Statistical Concepts, overview of Forecasting Software, and Forecasting in R: Tutorial and Examples) the many data sets referenced in the chapters, macros such as the Exponential Smoothing and Trend Curve Marcos and Time Series Neural Network Analysis and student study materials.
Author: Steve Morlidge
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470662212
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 328
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Book Description
The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe. It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. ’Good enough’ forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future. Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as: What makes a good forecast? What period should a forecast cover? How frequently should it be updated? What information should it contain? What is the best way to produce a forecast? How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation? How should a forecast be used? How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable? How accurate does it need to be? How should you deal with risk and uncertainty What is the best way to organize a forecast process? Do you need multiple forecasts? What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting? Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management. Praise for Future Ready "Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward" —Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC "Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one" —Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro "A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement." —Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting "In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market." —Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group
