Dynamics of decision making: from evidence to preference and belief

Dynamics of decision making: from evidence to preference and belief PDF Author: Erica Yu
Publisher: Frontiers E-books
ISBN: 2889192709
Category : Decision making
Languages : en
Pages : 260

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Book Description
At the core of the many debates throughout cognitive science concerning how decisions are made are the processes governing the time course of preference formation and decision. From perceptual choices, such as whether the signal on a radar screen indicates an enemy missile or a spot on a CT scan indicates a tumor, to cognitive value-based decisions, such as selecting an agreeable flatmate or deciding the guilt of a defendant, significant and everyday decisions are dynamic over time. Phenomena such as decoy effects, preference reversals and order effects are still puzzling researchers. For example, in a legal context, jurors receive discrete pieces of evidence in sequence, and must integrate these pieces together to reach a singular verdict. From a standard Bayesian viewpoint the order in which people receive the evidence should not influence their final decision, and yet order effects seem a robust empirical phenomena in many decision contexts. Current research on how decisions unfold, especially in a dynamic environment, is advancing our theoretical understanding of decision making. This Research Topic aims to review and further explore the time course of a decision - from how prior beliefs are formed to how those beliefs are used and updated over time, towards the formation of preferences and choices and post-decision processes and effects. Research literatures encompassing varied approaches to the time-scale of decisions will be brought into scope: a) Speeded decisions (and post-decision processes) that require the accumulation of noisy and possibly non-stationary perceptual evidence (e.g., randomly moving dots stimuli), within a few seconds, with or without temporal uncertainty. b) Temporally-extended, value-based decisions that integrate feedback values (e.g., gambling machines) and internally-generated decision criteria (e.g., when one switches attention, selectively, between the various aspects of several choice alternatives). c) Temporally extended, belief-based decisions that build on the integration of evidence, which interacts with the decision maker's belief system, towards the updating of the beliefs and the formation of judgments and preferences (as in the legal context). Research that emphasizes theoretical concerns (including optimality analysis) and mechanisms underlying the decision process, both neural and cognitive, is presented, as well as research that combines experimental and computational levels of analysis.

Dynamics of decision making: from evidence to preference and belief

Dynamics of decision making: from evidence to preference and belief PDF Author: Erica Yu
Publisher: Frontiers E-books
ISBN: 2889192709
Category : Decision making
Languages : en
Pages : 260

Get Book Here

Book Description
At the core of the many debates throughout cognitive science concerning how decisions are made are the processes governing the time course of preference formation and decision. From perceptual choices, such as whether the signal on a radar screen indicates an enemy missile or a spot on a CT scan indicates a tumor, to cognitive value-based decisions, such as selecting an agreeable flatmate or deciding the guilt of a defendant, significant and everyday decisions are dynamic over time. Phenomena such as decoy effects, preference reversals and order effects are still puzzling researchers. For example, in a legal context, jurors receive discrete pieces of evidence in sequence, and must integrate these pieces together to reach a singular verdict. From a standard Bayesian viewpoint the order in which people receive the evidence should not influence their final decision, and yet order effects seem a robust empirical phenomena in many decision contexts. Current research on how decisions unfold, especially in a dynamic environment, is advancing our theoretical understanding of decision making. This Research Topic aims to review and further explore the time course of a decision - from how prior beliefs are formed to how those beliefs are used and updated over time, towards the formation of preferences and choices and post-decision processes and effects. Research literatures encompassing varied approaches to the time-scale of decisions will be brought into scope: a) Speeded decisions (and post-decision processes) that require the accumulation of noisy and possibly non-stationary perceptual evidence (e.g., randomly moving dots stimuli), within a few seconds, with or without temporal uncertainty. b) Temporally-extended, value-based decisions that integrate feedback values (e.g., gambling machines) and internally-generated decision criteria (e.g., when one switches attention, selectively, between the various aspects of several choice alternatives). c) Temporally extended, belief-based decisions that build on the integration of evidence, which interacts with the decision maker's belief system, towards the updating of the beliefs and the formation of judgments and preferences (as in the legal context). Research that emphasizes theoretical concerns (including optimality analysis) and mechanisms underlying the decision process, both neural and cognitive, is presented, as well as research that combines experimental and computational levels of analysis.

Beliefs, Interactions and Preferences

Beliefs, Interactions and Preferences PDF Author: Mark J. Machina
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780792385998
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 392

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Book Description
"It also addresses the difficult question to incorporate several of these recent advances simultaneously into one single decision model. And it offers perspectives about the future trends of modeling such complex decision questions."--Jacket.

Beliefs, Reasoning, and Decision Making

Beliefs, Reasoning, and Decision Making PDF Author: Roger C. Schank
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 9780805814569
Category : Education
Languages : en
Pages : 444

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Book Description
First Published in 1994. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.

Preference, Belief, and Similarity

Preference, Belief, and Similarity PDF Author: Amos Tversky
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262700931
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 1046

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Book Description
Amos Tversky (1937–1996), a towering figure in cognitive and mathematical psychology, devoted his professional life to the study of similarity, judgment, and decision making. He had a unique ability to master the technicalities of normative ideals and then to intuit and demonstrate experimentally their systematic violation due to the vagaries and consequences of human information processing. He created new areas of study and helped transform disciplines as varied as economics, law, medicine, political science, philosophy, and statistics. This book collects forty of Tversky's articles, selected by him in collaboration with the editor during the last months of Tversky's life. It is divided into three sections: Similarity, Judgment, and Preferences. The Preferences section is subdivided into Probabilistic Models of Choice, Choice under Risk and Uncertainty, and Contingent Preferences. Included are several articles written with his frequent collaborator, Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman.

Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior

Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior PDF Author: Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309523893
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 433

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Book Description
Simulations are widely used in the military for training personnel, analyzing proposed equipment, and rehearsing missions, and these simulations need realistic models of human behavior. This book draws together a wide variety of theoretical and applied research in human behavior modeling that can be considered for use in those simulations. It covers behavior at the individual, unit, and command level. At the individual soldier level, the topics covered include attention, learning, memory, decisionmaking, perception, situation awareness, and planning. At the unit level, the focus is on command and control. The book provides short-, medium-, and long-term goals for research and development of more realistic models of human behavior.

Preferences and Decisions

Preferences and Decisions PDF Author: Salvatore Greco
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642159753
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 420

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Book Description
Decision making is an omnipresent, most crucial activity of the human being, and also of virtually all artificial broadly perceived “intelligent” systems that try to mimic human behavior, reasoning and choice processes. It is quite obvious that such a relevance of decision making had triggered vast research effort on its very essence, and attempts to develop tools and techniques which would make it possible to somehow mimic human decision making related acts, even to automate decision making processes that had been so far reserved for the human beings. The roots of those attempts at a scientific analysis can be traced to the ancient times but – clearly – they have gained momentum in the recent 50 or 100 years following a general boom in science. Depending on the field of science, decision making can be viewed in different ways. The most general view can be that decision making boils down to some cognitive, mental process(es) that lead to the selection of an option or a course of action among several alternatives. Then, looking in a deeper way, from a psychological perspective this process proceeds in the context of a set of needs, preferences, rational choice of an individual, a group of individuals, or even an organization. From a cognitive perspective, the decision making process proceeds in the context of various interactions with the environment.

Rational Choice in an Uncertain World

Rational Choice in an Uncertain World PDF Author: Reid Hastie
Publisher: SAGE Publications
ISBN: 1483342840
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 393

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Book Description
"The authors are highly respected as leading figures in the field of judgment and decision making. There are many existing books on topics related to judgment and decision making, but this book makes a unique contribution to this field because of its systematic and scholarly approach, and its breadth of coverage." —Robert Goldstone, Indiana University "Reid Hastie and Robyn Dawes are two of the most eminent researchers in the field. I know these authors to be excellent writers and I have no doubt that their writing style will be suitable for my students." —William Goldstein, University of Chicago In the new edition of this award-winning text, renowned authors Reid Hastie and Robyn Dawes compare and contrast the basic principles of rationality with actual behavior in making decisions. This book explores theories and research findings from the field of judgment and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well. New to This Edition Chapter introductions, conclusions, and cross-references between chapters make the text more student friendly An abundance of examples from areas such as finance, medicine, law, and engineering anchor concepts to the real world Increased consideration of descriptive, psychological models of decision making augment the original emphasis on normative, rational, "Expected Utility Theory" models, bring the book up to date Balance among the three major approaches to judgment and decision making: cognitive psychological analyses of mental processes and heuristics, descriptive algebraic models of judgment and decision processes, and rational models of decision making

The Psychology of Economic Decisions

The Psychology of Economic Decisions PDF Author: Isabelle Brocas
Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand
ISBN: 9780199257225
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 231

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Book Description
Psychologists have a long tradition of studying human behavior, strengths and weaknesses, biases and limitations. Economists have constructed normative frameworks that capture the most important elements of human decision-making and developed powerful tools to determine individual and strategic choices in a variety of situations. Only recently have their strengths been combined and economic models enriched with key ingredients found in psychological studies. This volume covers four ofthe most important themes in this interdisciplinary field: feelings, inconsistencies, limitations and biases. Each chapter contributes to a more comprehensive and accurate modelling and description of human behavior. Its four parts cover: the origins, formation, and evolution of beliefs; consistency, commitment, and intertemporal separability of dynamic choices; attention, preference formation, and risk evaluation in limited cognition; and affective behaviour, specifically the role of emotionsin decision making.

Unifying Causality and Psychology

Unifying Causality and Psychology PDF Author: Gerald Young
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319240943
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 962

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Book Description
This magistral treatise approaches the integration of psychology through the study of the multiple causes of normal and dysfunctional behavior. Causality is the focal point reviewed across disciplines. Using diverse models, the book approaches unifying psychology as an ongoing project that integrates genetics, experience, evolution, brain, development, change mechanisms, and so on. The book includes in its integration free will, epitomized as freedom in being. It pinpoints the role of the self in causality and the freedom we have in determining our own behavior. The book deals with disturbed behavior, as well, and tackles the DSM-5 approach to mental disorder and the etiology of psychopathology. Young examines all these topics with a critical eye, and gives many innovative ideas and models that will stimulate thinking on the topic of psychology and causality for decades to come. It is truly integrative and original. Among the topics covered: Models and systems of causality of behavior. Nature and nurture: evolution and complexities. Early adversity, fetal programming, and getting under the skin. Free will in psychotherapy: helping people believe. Causality in psychological injury and law: basics and critics. A Neo-Piagetian/Neo-Eriksonian 25-step (sub)stage model. Unifying Causality and Psychology appeals to the disciplines of psychology, psychiatry, epidemiology, philosophy, neuroscience, genetics, law, the social sciences and humanistic fields, in general, and other mental health fields. Its level of writing makes it appropriate for graduate courses, as well as researchers and practitioners.

Introduction to Formal Philosophy

Introduction to Formal Philosophy PDF Author: Sven Ove Hansson
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319774344
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 733

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Book Description
This Undergraduate Textbook introduces key methods and examines the major areas of philosophy in which formal methods play pivotal roles. Coverage begins with a thorough introduction to formalization and to the advantages and pitfalls of formal methods in philosophy. The ensuing chapters show how to use formal methods in a wide range of areas. Throughout, the contributors clarify the relationships and interdependencies between formal and informal notions and constructions. Their main focus is to show how formal treatments of philosophical problems may help us understand them better. Formal methods can be used to solve problems but also to express new philosophical problems that would never have seen the light of day without the expressive power of the formal apparatus. ​Formal philosophy merges work in different areas of philosophy as well as logic, mathematics, computer science, linguistics, physics, psychology, biology, economics, political theory, and sociology. This title offers an accessible introduction to this new interdisciplinary research area to a wide academic audience.