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Author: Detlof von Winterfeldt
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 604
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Book Description
Author: Detlof von Winterfeldt
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 604
Get Book
Book Description
Author: D. von Winterfeldt
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521273046
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 624
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Book Description
Decision analysis is a technology designed to help individuals and organizations make wise inferences and decisions. It synthesises ideas from economics, statistics, psychology, operations research, and other disciplines. A great deal of behavioural research is relevant to decision analysis; behavioural scientists have both suggested easy and natural ways to describe and quantify problems and shown the kind of errors to which unaided intuitive judgements can lead. This long-awaited book offers the4first integrative presentation of the principles of decision analysis in a behavioural context. The authors break new ground on a variety of technical topics (sensitivity analysis, the value-utility distinction, multistage inference, attitudes toward risk), and attempt to make intuitive sense out of what have been treated in the literature as endemic biases and other errors of human judgement. Those interested in artificial intelligence will find it the easiest presentation of hierarchical Bayesian inference available.
Author: Ward Edwards
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521863681
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 640
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Book Description
By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book reviews and extends the material typically presented in introductory texts. Not a single book covers the broad scope of decision analysis at this advanced level. It will be a valuable resource for academics and students in decision analysis as well as decision analysts and managers
Author: James Shanteau
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461550890
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 425
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Book Description
Decision Science and Technology is a compilation of chapters written in honor of a remarkable man, Ward Edwards. Among Ward's many contributions are two significant accomplishments, either of which would have been enough for a very distinguished career. First, Ward is the founder of behavioral decision theory. This interdisciplinary discipline addresses the question of how people actually confront decisions, as opposed to the question of how they should make decisions. Second, Ward laid the groundwork for sound normative systems by noticing which tasks humans can do well and which tasks computers should perform. This volume, organized into five parts, reflects those accomplishments and more. The book is divided into four sections: `Behavioral Decision Theory' examines theoretical descriptions and empirical findings about human decision making. `Decision Analysis' examines topics in decision analysis.`Decision in Society' explores issues in societal decision making. The final section, `Historical Notes', provides some historical perspectives on the development of the decision theory. Within these sections, major, multi-disciplinary scholars in decision theory have written chapters exploring some very bold themes in the field, as an examination of the book's contents will show. The main reason for the health of the Decision Analysis field is its close links between theory and applications that have characterized it over the years. In this volume, the chapters by Barron and Barrett; Fishburn; Fryback; Keeney; Moreno, Pericchi, and Kadane; Howard; Phillips; Slovic and Gregory; Winkler; and, above all, von Winterfeldt focus on those links. Decision science originally developed out of concern with real decision problems; and applied work, such as is represented in this volume, will help the field to remain strong.
Author: Yuelin Li
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461412382
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 247
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Book Description
This book is written for behavioral scientists who want to consider adding R to their existing set of statistical tools, or want to switch to R as their main computation tool. The authors aim primarily to help practitioners of behavioral research make the transition to R. The focus is to provide practical advice on some of the widely-used statistical methods in behavioral research, using a set of notes and annotated examples. The book will also help beginners learn more about statistics and behavioral research. These are statistical techniques used by psychologists who do research on human subjects, but of course they are also relevant to researchers in others fields that do similar kinds of research. The authors emphasize practical data analytic skills so that they can be quickly incorporated into readers’ own research.
Author: Kazuhisa Takemura
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9811654530
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 389
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Book Description
This book is the second edition of Behavioral Decision Theory, published in 2014. The main approach and structure of this book have been retained in the new edition. However, this second edition provides a fresh overview of the idea of behavioral decision theory and related research findings such as theoretical and empirical discoveries of preference formation, time discounting, social interaction, and social decision making. The book covers a wide range from classical to relatively recent major studies concerning behavioral decision theory, which, in brief, is a general term for descriptive theories to explain the psychological knowledge related to people’s decision-making behavior. It is called a theory but is actually a combination of various psychological theories, for which no axiomatic systems—such as those associated with the utility theory widely used in economics—have been established. The utility theory is often limited to qualitative knowledge; however, as the studies of Nobel laureates H. A. Simon, D. Kahneman, and R. Thaler have suggested, the psychological methodology and knowledge of behavioral decision theory have been applied widely in such fields as economics, business administration, and engineering and are expected to become even more useful in the future. Research into people’s decision making represents an important part in those fields, various aspects of which overlap with the scope of behavioral decision theory. This theory is closely related to behavioral economics and behavioral finance, which have come into greater use in recent years. This book will appeal especially to graduate students, advanced undergraduate students, and researchers who are interested in decision-making phenomena.
Author: Ward Edwards
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521682305
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 638
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Book Description
By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book reviews and extends the material typically presented in introductory texts. Not a single book covers the broad scope of decision analysis at this advanced level. It will be a valuable resource for academics and students in decision analysis as well as decision analysts and managers
Author: Florian M. Federspiel
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9783031444234
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This book lays out a foundation and taxonomy for Behavioral Decision Analysis, featuring representative work across various domains. Traditional research in the domain of Decision Analysis has focused on the design and application of logically consistent tools to support decision makers during the process of structuring problem complexity, modeling uncertainty, generating predictions, eliciting preferences, and, ultimately, making better decisions. Two commonly held assumptions are that the decision maker’s cognitive belief system is fully accessible and that this system can be understood and formalized by trained analysts. However, in past years, an active line of research has emerged studying instances in which such assumptions may not hold. This book unites this community under the common theme of Behavioral Decision Analysis. The taxonomy used in this book categorizes research based on task focus (prediction or decision) and behavioral level (individual or group). Two theoretical lenses that lie at the interface between (1) normative and descriptive research, and (2) normative and prescriptive research are introduced. The book then proceeds to highlight representative works across the two lenses focused on individual and group-level decision making. Featuring various methodologies and applications, the book serves as a reference for researchers, students, and professionals across different disciplines with a common interest in Behavioral Decision Analysis.
Author: Simon French
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139480987
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 503
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Book Description
Behavioural studies have shown that while humans may be the best decision makers on the planet, we are not quite as good as we think we are. We are regularly subject to biases, inconsistencies and irrationalities in our decision making. Decision Behaviour, Analysis and Support explores perspectives from many different disciplines to show how we can help decision makers to deliberate and make better decisions. It considers both the use of computers and databases to support decisions as well as human aids to building analyses and some fast and frugal tricks to aid more consistent decision making. In its exploration of decision support it draws together results and observations from decision theory, behavioural and psychological studies, artificial intelligence and information systems, philosophy, operational research and organisational studies. This provides a valuable resource for managers with decision-making responsibilities and students from a range of disciplines, including management, engineering and information systems.
Author: George Wright
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461323916
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 570
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Book Description
