Cyclical Analysis of Time Series PDF Download
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Author: Gerhard Bry
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 242
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Book Description
Study of programmed procedures in economic research and statistical method with regard to computerised analysis of cyclical turning points relative to business cycles. References.
Author: Gerhard Bry
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 242
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Book Description
Study of programmed procedures in economic research and statistical method with regard to computerised analysis of cyclical turning points relative to business cycles. References.
Author: Gerhard Bry
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Terence C. Mills
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030763595
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 219
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Book Description
Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series has a long history, with the use of linear trends and moving averages forming the basic tool kit of economists until the 1970s. Several developments in econometrics then led to an overhaul of the techniques used to extract trends and cycles from time series. In this second edition, Terence Mills expands on the research in the area of trends and cycles over the last (almost) two decades, to highlight to students and researchers the variety of techniques and the considerations that underpin their choice for modelling trends and cycles.
Author: Regina Kaiser
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461301297
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 198
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Book Description
This book outlines and demonstrates problems with the use of the HP filter, and proposes an alternative strategy for inferring cyclical behavior from a time series featuring seasonal, trend, cyclical and noise components. The main innovation of the alternative strategy involves augmenting the series forecasts and back-casts obtained from an ARIMA model, and then applying the HP filter to the augmented series. Comparisons presented using artificial and actual data demonstrate the superiority of the alternative strategy.
Author: Graham P. Weedon
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139435175
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 275
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Book Description
Increasingly environmental scientists, palaeoceanographers and geologists are collecting quantitative records of environmental changes (time-series) from sediments, ice cores, cave calcite, corals and trees. This book explains how to analyse these records, using straightforward explanations and diagrams rather than formal mathematical derivations. All the main cyclostratigraphic methods are covered including spectral analysis, cross-spectral analysis, filtering, complex demodulation, wavelet and singular spectrum analysis. Practical problems of time-series analysis, including those of distortions of environmental signals during stratigraphic encoding, are considered in detail. Recent research into various types of tidal and climatic cycles is summarised. The book ends with an extensive reference section, and an appendix listing sources of computer algorithms. This book provides the ideal reference for all those using time-series analysis to study the nature and history of climatic and tidal cycles. It is suitable for senior undergraduate and graduate courses in environmental science, palaeoceanography and geology.
Author: Harold Thayer Davis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics, Mathematical
Languages : en
Pages : 648
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Book Description
Author: Haim Y. Bleikh
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1317010183
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 149
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Book Description
In Time Series Analysis and Adjustment the authors explain how the last four decades have brought dramatic changes in the way researchers analyze economic and financial data on behalf of economic and financial institutions and provide statistics to whomsoever requires them. Such analysis has long involved what is known as econometrics, but time series analysis is a different approach driven more by data than economic theory and focused on modelling. An understanding of time series and the application and understanding of related time series adjustment procedures is essential in areas such as risk management, business cycle analysis, and forecasting. Dealing with economic data involves grappling with things like varying numbers of working and trading days in different months and movable national holidays. Special attention has to be given to such things. However, the main problem in time series analysis is randomness. In real-life, data patterns are usually unclear, and the challenge is to uncover hidden patterns in the data and then to generate accurate forecasts. The case studies in this book demonstrate that time series adjustment methods can be efficaciously applied and utilized, for both analysis and forecasting, but they must be used in the context of reasoned statistical and economic judgment. The authors believe this is the first published study to really deal with this issue of context.
Author: Rebecca M. Warner
Publisher: Guilford Press
ISBN: 9781572303386
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 244
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Book Description
This book provides a thorough introduction to methods for detecting and describing cyclic patterns in time-series data. It is written both for researchers and students new to the area and for those who have already collected time-series data but wish to learn new ways of understanding and presenting them. Facilitating the interpretation of observations of behavior, physiology, mood, perceptual threshold, social indicator variables, and other responses, the book focuses on practical applications and requires much less mathematical background than most comparable texts. Using real data sets and currently available software (SPSS for Windows), the author employs extensive examples to clarify key concepts. Topics covered include research design issues, preliminary data screening, identification and description of cycles, summary of results across time series, and assessment of relations between time series. Also considered are theoretical questions, problems of interpretation, and potential sources of artifact.
Author: Christopher Grafton
Publisher: Harriman House Limited
ISBN: 0857191985
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 384
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Book Description
One of the best classical methods of technical analysis brought up to date This book offers a modern treatment of Hurst's original system of market cycle analysis. It will teach you how to get to the point where you can isolate cycles in any freely-traded financial instrument and make an assessment of their likely future course. Although Hurst's methodology can seem outwardly complex, the logic underpinning it is straightforward. With practice the skill needed to conduct a full cycle analysis quickly and effectively will become second nature. The rewards for becoming adept are high conviction trades, tight risk management and mastery of a largely non-correlated system of analysis. In this extensive step-by-step guide you will find a full description of the principal tools and techniques taught by Hurst as well as over 120 colour charts, together with tables and diagrams. The Updata and TradeStation code for all of the indicators shown is also included.
Author: Estela Bee Dagum
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319318225
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 293
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Book Description
This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportation, and consumers in general to decide on appropriate action. This book appeals to practitioners in government institutions, finance and business, macroeconomists, and other professionals who use economic data as well as academic researchers in time series analysis, seasonal adjustment methods, filtering and signal extraction. It is also useful for graduate and final-year undergraduate courses in econometrics and time series with a good understanding of linear regression and matrix algebra, as well as ARIMA modelling.
