Costs of Sovereign Defaults: Restructuring Strategies, Bank Distress and the Capital Inflow-Credit Channel PDF Download
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Author: Mr.Tamon Asonuma
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498303250
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 91
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Book Description
Sovereign debt restructurings are associated with declines in GDP, investment, bank credit, and capital flows. The transmission channels and associated output and banking sector costs depend on whether the restructuring takes place preemptively, without missing payments to creditors, or whether it takes place after a default has occurred. Post-default restructurings are associated with larger declines in bank credit, an increase in lending interest rates, and a higher likelihood of triggering a banking crisis than pre-emptive restructurings. Our local projection estimates show large declines in GDP, investment, and credit amplified by severe sudden stops and transmitted through a “capital inflow-credit channel”.
Author: Mr.Tamon Asonuma
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498303250
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 91
Get Book
Book Description
Sovereign debt restructurings are associated with declines in GDP, investment, bank credit, and capital flows. The transmission channels and associated output and banking sector costs depend on whether the restructuring takes place preemptively, without missing payments to creditors, or whether it takes place after a default has occurred. Post-default restructurings are associated with larger declines in bank credit, an increase in lending interest rates, and a higher likelihood of triggering a banking crisis than pre-emptive restructurings. Our local projection estimates show large declines in GDP, investment, and credit amplified by severe sudden stops and transmitted through a “capital inflow-credit channel”.
Author: Mr.Tamon Asonuma
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498304966
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 91
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Book Description
Sovereign debt restructurings are associated with declines in GDP, investment, bank credit, and capital flows. The transmission channels and associated output and banking sector costs depend on whether the restructuring takes place preemptively, without missing payments to creditors, or whether it takes place after a default has occurred. Post-default restructurings are associated with larger declines in bank credit, an increase in lending interest rates, and a higher likelihood of triggering a banking crisis than pre-emptive restructurings. Our local projection estimates show large declines in GDP, investment, and credit amplified by severe sudden stops and transmitted through a “capital inflow-credit channel”.
Author: Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484359623
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
Author: Christoph Trebesch
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451916124
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
This paper proposes a new empirical measure of cooperative versus conflictual crisis resolution following sovereign default and debt distress. The index of government coerciveness is presented as a proxy for excusable versus inexcusable default behaviour and used to evaluate the costs of default for the domestic private sector, in particular its access to international debt markets. Our findings indicate that unilateral, aggressive sovereign debt policies lead to a strong decline in corporate access to external finance (loans and bond issuance). We conclude that coercive government actions towards external creditors can have strong signalling effects with negative spillovers on domestic firms. "Good faith" debt renegotiations may be crucial to minimize the domestic costs of sovereign defaults.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498342434
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 88
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Book Description
This paper explores how banking sector developments and characteristics influence the propagation of risks from the banking sector to sovereign debt, including how they affect the extent of fiscal costs of banking crises when those occur. It then proposes practices and policies for the fiscal authorities to help manage the risks and enhance crisis preparedness.
Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475561008
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Book Description
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464820260
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 152
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Book Description
Notwithstanding global growth weakness and financial pressures, growth in South Asia is expected to remain robust, supported by slower fiscal consolidation than in other EMDEs, strong public investment, and a recovery as financial stress has subsided. Policy challenges include, in the short-term, preserving financial stability and restoring fiscal sustainability and, in the long-term, rekindling investment, and managing an energy transition. Currently, the energy intensity of South Asian economies is almost twice the global average—despite a decline over the past two decades that was almost entirely driven by firm-level, within-sector cuts in energy intensity. The potential benefit of regulatory policies, information interventions, and financial support to help accelerate the diffusion of these technologies, as well as the possibility that these could also lend broader support for countries' development objectives. The transition away from fossil fuels may have considerable labor market impacts. A wide range of policies, including better access to high-quality education, finance, and markets; improved labor mobility; and strengthened social safety nets, will be needed to facilitate the adjustment in labor markets while protecting vulnerable workers.
Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815453
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 403
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Book Description
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Author: Ugo Panizza
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451870961
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This paper evaluates empirically four types of cost that may result from an international sovereign default: reputational costs, international trade exclusion costs, costs to the domestic economy through the financial system, and political costs to the authorities. It finds that the economic costs are generally significant but short-lived, and sometimes do not operate through conventional channels. The political consequences of a debt crisis, by contrast, seem to be particularly dire for incumbent governments and finance ministers, broadly in line with what happens in currency crises.
Author: Enrique Alberola
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1035300567
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 253
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Book Description
Recognising the regained importance of fiscal policy over the last two decades, this timely book provides much-needed insight into the changing practice of fiscal policy and how it is adapting to the unpredictable nature of the 21st century. Expert academic and practitioner contributors consider the resources which underpin current fiscal policy, assessing its overall effectiveness before outlining the changing priorities –ageing, inequality, climate change- and the financial tools available, and considering the future of fiscal policy in uncertain times.
