Cost Prediction Via Quantitative Analysis of Complexity in U.S. Navy Shipbuilding PDF Download
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Author: Aaron Travis Dobson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 111
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Book Description
As the sophistication and technology of ships increases, U.S. Navy shipbuilding must be an effective and cost-efficient acquirer of technology-dense one-of-a-kind ships all while meeting significant cost and schedule constraints in a fluctuating demand environment. A drive to provide world-class technology to the U.S. Navy's warfighters necessitates increasingly complex ships, which further augments the non-trivial problem of providing cost effective, on-schedule ships for the American taxpayer. The primary objective of this study was to quantify, assess, and analyze cost-predictive complexity-oriented benchmarks in the pre-construction phase of the U.S. Navy's ship acquisition process. This study used commercially-available software such as Mathwork's MATLAB software to analyze the numerical cost data and assess the fidelity of the predictive benchmarks to the datasets. The end result was that a consideration of complexity via the methods and algorithms established in this study supported an exponential cost versus complexity relationship to refine the current cost estimation methods and software currently in use in U.S. Navy shipbuilding. Specifically, it was found that for the subsystems under analysis, acquisition/contract cost per unit was highly correlated with unit complexity according to the relationship, cost/unit ($M,USD) = 23.100 + e^0.015C.
Author: Aaron Travis Dobson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 111
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Book Description
As the sophistication and technology of ships increases, U.S. Navy shipbuilding must be an effective and cost-efficient acquirer of technology-dense one-of-a-kind ships all while meeting significant cost and schedule constraints in a fluctuating demand environment. A drive to provide world-class technology to the U.S. Navy's warfighters necessitates increasingly complex ships, which further augments the non-trivial problem of providing cost effective, on-schedule ships for the American taxpayer. The primary objective of this study was to quantify, assess, and analyze cost-predictive complexity-oriented benchmarks in the pre-construction phase of the U.S. Navy's ship acquisition process. This study used commercially-available software such as Mathwork's MATLAB software to analyze the numerical cost data and assess the fidelity of the predictive benchmarks to the datasets. The end result was that a consideration of complexity via the methods and algorithms established in this study supported an exponential cost versus complexity relationship to refine the current cost estimation methods and software currently in use in U.S. Navy shipbuilding. Specifically, it was found that for the subsystems under analysis, acquisition/contract cost per unit was highly correlated with unit complexity according to the relationship, cost/unit ($M,USD) = 23.100 + e^0.015C.
Author: Colin P. Hammon
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Labor costs
Languages : en
Pages : 12
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Book Description
Changes in ship design or specifications disrupt work on a ship, and can disrupt work throughout an entire shipyard. This increases costs. Additionally, government-directed changes may be the legal basis for claims when the contractor overruns cost and schedule for any reason. Outstanding claims for equitable adjustment based primarily on alleged delay and disruption due to Government changes reached the unprecedented level of $2.5 billion in 1978. Many within the Navy would like to move the disruption issue out of the courts by paying the full cost of changes as they are implemented. This paper reports a test of the feasibility of a statistical method for fully pricing shipbuilding change manhours. (Author).
Author: Kian Chiong Yu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 70
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Book Description
The paper discusses the feasibility of developing regression models to predict the total cost of a Navy ship using the physical weights of the ship components as independent variables was investigated. The various forms of regression analyses fall under the following three categories: Linear multiple regression analysis; Non-linear multiple regression analysis; and Adding-up process, which is an aggregation of two-variable regression analyses. It was found that the linear model is preferable over the non-linear model and the adding-up process. If the samples are properly selected, linear models which are statistically significant can be derived. Given its superiority over the other two models, the degree of accuracy of the linear model is still not high enough to produce a dependable point estimation for the total cost of the ship. (Author).
Author: Mark V. Arena
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833039210
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 136
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Book Description
Over the past several decades, increases in acquisition costs for U.S. Navy combatants have outpaced the rate of inflation. To understand why, the authors of this book examined two principal source categories of ship cost escalation (economy-driven factors and customer-driven factors) and interviewed various shipbuilders. Based on their analysis, the authors propose some ways the Navy might reduce ship costs in the future.
Author: United States. General Accounting Office
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Defense contracts
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
Author: United States. General Accounting Office
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Shipbuilding
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
Author: Arthur Andersen & Co
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Shipbuilding
Languages : en
Pages : 294
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic government information
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
The Navy is required by law to submit a report to the Congress each year that projects the service's shipbuilding requirements, procurement plans, inventories, and costs over the coming 30 years. Since 2006, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has been performing an independent analysis of the Navy's latest shipbuilding plan at the request of the Subcommittee on Seapower and Expeditionary Forces of the House Armed Services Committee. This CBO report, the latest in that series, summarizes the ship requirements and purchases described in the Navy's 2011 plan and assesses their implications for the Navy's funding needs and ship inventories through 2040. The new plan appears to increase the required size of the fleet compared with earlier plans, while reducing the number of ships to be purchased, and thus the costs for ship construction, over the next three decades. Despite those reductions, the total costs of carrying out the 2011 plan would be much higher than the funding levels that the Navy has received in recent years.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 95
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Book Description
Contracting for US Navy ship procurement is complex due several factors such as budgetary and political concerns, sole or near sole source environments, and long lead-time construction. In the current climate of shrinking budgets, it is especially important to set programs up for financial success. One potential area for cost management improvement in acquisition programs is with the initial contract and incentive structure. If shipbuilding contracts could be described in engineering architectural terms, then perhaps that architecture could provide better clarity of contract options. Further, if contracting can be described as an engineering architecture, then perhaps that architecture could be optimized for a given result. These are the central questions of this thesis. To answer them, interviews were conducted with several experienced individuals from both industry and the government. Additionally, past shipbuilding contracts in both the US and Canada were examined. These insights were then used to form a contract architecture concept in accordance with the Tradespace engineering paradigm. From the concept definition came the design vector definition which included variables such as shareline definition, incentives, and contracted profit percentage. The tradespace was then populated by manipulating the design vector parameters. The Palisade tool [at]Risk was used to conduct the design vector manipulation and tradespace population. [at]Risk is an excel plug in that allows uncertain variables to be defined by probability distributions. The tradespace of contract outcomes was then evaluated against utilities such as cost, profit, and risk. Although the factors affecting the contracting environment are complex, and not all are modeled, quantitative modeling allows the architect to roughly evaluate different approaches, vice just basing the contract on past models. It also gives the government the ability to check whether shipbuilder furnished predicted costs are reasonable for a given contract structure.
Author: Kevin C. Antonucci
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cost
Languages : en
Pages : 113
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Book Description
The purpose of this research was to determine both the added operating and support (O & S) costs and affordability of operating and maintaining a future naval battle force of 324 ships as proposed in the Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan. Cost estimation including regression, 3-year moving averages, point, expert and analogous modeling was used to capture both historical and future O & S costs from FY1991 to FY2024. With an emphasis on the three main cost drivers, (manpower, fuel and maintenance) which arguably had the largest influence on ships' O & S costs, data were obtained from the Visibility & Management of Operating & Support Cost (VAMOSC) database and various Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs). Analysis and modeling followed suite in order to forecast expected future costs and affordability for a proposed 12.5 percent growth in naval fleet size by FY2024. Reviewing all 29 classes of ship within the expected FY2024 battle force, normalized results from the cost estimation models yielded a minimum cost growth of 17 percent in O & S costs. Even if budget growth trend rates were to remain steady, negating the possibility of budget decreases, this thesis argues the Navy would still not be able to afford its proposed future battle force in FY2024.
