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Author: Gregory D. Fox
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781423517115
Category : Cyclones
Languages : en
Pages : 99
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Book Description
The primary purpose of this research is to provide guidance to forecasters from the Joint (Air Force/Navy) Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor to use in differentiating between the stages of extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs). Not only is ET relevant to the Department of Defense, since JTWC stops providing TC warnings once they have undergone ET, but it is also applicable to the meteorological community since there currently "is no commonly accepted definition of ET" (Jones et al 2003). This research compares the results of a conceptual model of ET using subjective satellite analysis with the results of objective indicators based on Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model analyses. The ultimate goal is to find a way to reduce the negative impact of incorrect TC forecasting by providing tools which are more objective in defining stages of ET. This work discusses the birth, growth, and death of TCs by describing what energy sources are necessary for their growth and dissipation. Recent studies provide a conceptual model of ET with definitions of two stages and ways to use satellite analysis to identify them (Klein et al. 2000). While this conceptual model was being analyzed with data from the western North Pacific Ocean, TCs were also being analyzed using data from the Atlantic Ocean (Hart and Evans 2001). The research from the Atlantic led to the exploitation of objective indicators in a hodograph-like display (Evans and Hart 2003).
Author: Gregory D. Fox
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781423517115
Category : Cyclones
Languages : en
Pages : 99
Get Book Here
Book Description
The primary purpose of this research is to provide guidance to forecasters from the Joint (Air Force/Navy) Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor to use in differentiating between the stages of extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs). Not only is ET relevant to the Department of Defense, since JTWC stops providing TC warnings once they have undergone ET, but it is also applicable to the meteorological community since there currently "is no commonly accepted definition of ET" (Jones et al 2003). This research compares the results of a conceptual model of ET using subjective satellite analysis with the results of objective indicators based on Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model analyses. The ultimate goal is to find a way to reduce the negative impact of incorrect TC forecasting by providing tools which are more objective in defining stages of ET. This work discusses the birth, growth, and death of TCs by describing what energy sources are necessary for their growth and dissipation. Recent studies provide a conceptual model of ET with definitions of two stages and ways to use satellite analysis to identify them (Klein et al. 2000). While this conceptual model was being analyzed with data from the western North Pacific Ocean, TCs were also being analyzed using data from the Atlantic Ocean (Hart and Evans 2001). The research from the Atlantic led to the exploitation of objective indicators in a hodograph-like display (Evans and Hart 2003).
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Hurricanes
Languages : en
Pages : 880
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Book Description
Author: Christian Michael Warnfrid Grams
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Andrew L. Hulme
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 222
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Atlantic Ocean
Languages : en
Pages : 139
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Book Description
In this work, we investigate the relationships between global warming and tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific (WNP). Our hypothesis is that global warming impacts on TC activity occur through changes in the large scale environmental factors (LSEFs) known to be important in determining the formation and intensity of TCs. The LSEFs on which we focus are: Sea surface temperature (SST) exceeding 26oC Weak vertical shear in horizontal winds Large positive absolute vorticity at low levels Mean upward motion High mid-level humidity We separate the data into weekly 5ox5o region averages. Using a least squares fit, we identify global warming signals in both the SST and vertical wind shear data across the WNP. These signals vary significantly on a 5ox5o scale. Logistic regression was used to determine the LSEFs/TC formation probability relationship. Linear regression was performed to determine the LSEF/ACE relationship. Through the two regression models, we determine that each of the LSEFs is important for both TC formation and ACE. Independent data from that used in the regression modeling was used to validate the models. Our results support our hypothesis, and indicate that global warming has increased TC numbers and intensities in the WNP via the LSEFs.
Author: J. M. Harding
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Atmospheric circulation
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
Time series of surface atmospheric pressure and sea surface temperature are presented for three areas spanning the tropical North Pacific (Equator to 15N) from the Central American coast to the coast of Asia. Surface pressure time series are shown for the period between 1946 and 1974, while sea surface temperature data and presented for the period between 1962 and 1974. The relation between the Northern Hemisphere manifestation of Walker's 'Southern Oscillation' and the occurrence of warm and cold sea surface temperatures' in the eastern tropical Pacific is shown to support estimates of transport by the Equatorial Countercurrent. Large stratospheric injections of dust and gas by volcanic eruption are shown to generally preceed marked increases in the estimated transport by the Equatorial Countercurrent. Minima of tropical storm and typhoon frequency in the tropical northwest Pacific (especially since 1957) are shown to be associated with low east-west pressure across the equatorial Pacific while frequency maxima are associated with high east-west pressure differences.
Author: F. Martin Ralph
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030289060
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 284
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Book Description
This book is the standard reference based on roughly 20 years of research on atmospheric rivers, emphasizing progress made on key research and applications questions and remaining knowledge gaps. The book presents the history of atmospheric-rivers research, the current state of scientific knowledge, tools, and policy-relevant (science-informed) problems that lend themselves to real-world application of the research—and how the topic fits into larger national and global contexts. This book is written by a global team of authors who have conducted and published the majority of critical research on atmospheric rivers over the past years. The book is intended to benefit practitioners in the fields of meteorology, hydrology and related disciplines, including students as well as senior researchers.
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309380979
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 187
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Book Description
As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309161347
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 193
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Book Description
More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Author: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107025060
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 593
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Book Description
Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.
