Author: Ana-Maria Fuertes
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 41
Book Description
This article demonstrates that momentum, term structure and idiosyncratic volatility signals in commodity futures markets are not overlapping which inspires a novel triple-screen strategy. We show that simultaneously buying contracts with high past performance, high roll-yields and low idiosyncratic volatility, and shorting contracts with poor past performance, low roll-yields and high idiosyncratic volatility yields a Sharpe ratio over the 1985 to 2011 period which is five times that of the S&P-GSCI. The triple-screen strategy dominates the double-screen and individual strategies and this outcome cannot be attributed to overreaction, liquidity risk, transaction costs or the financialization of commodity futures markets.
Commodity Strategies Based on Momentum, Term Structure and Idiosyncratic Volatility
Author: Ana-Maria Fuertes
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 41
Book Description
This article demonstrates that momentum, term structure and idiosyncratic volatility signals in commodity futures markets are not overlapping which inspires a novel triple-screen strategy. We show that simultaneously buying contracts with high past performance, high roll-yields and low idiosyncratic volatility, and shorting contracts with poor past performance, low roll-yields and high idiosyncratic volatility yields a Sharpe ratio over the 1985 to 2011 period which is five times that of the S&P-GSCI. The triple-screen strategy dominates the double-screen and individual strategies and this outcome cannot be attributed to overreaction, liquidity risk, transaction costs or the financialization of commodity futures markets.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 41
Book Description
This article demonstrates that momentum, term structure and idiosyncratic volatility signals in commodity futures markets are not overlapping which inspires a novel triple-screen strategy. We show that simultaneously buying contracts with high past performance, high roll-yields and low idiosyncratic volatility, and shorting contracts with poor past performance, low roll-yields and high idiosyncratic volatility yields a Sharpe ratio over the 1985 to 2011 period which is five times that of the S&P-GSCI. The triple-screen strategy dominates the double-screen and individual strategies and this outcome cannot be attributed to overreaction, liquidity risk, transaction costs or the financialization of commodity futures markets.
Idiosyncratic Momentum in Commodity Futures
Author: Iuliia Shpak
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 24
Book Description
This paper provides novel findings on idiosyncratic momentum in commodity futures. Momentum strategy that forms portfolios on the basis of commodity-specific returns delivers compelling investment returns which are substantially more robust and superior to total return momentum on an absolute and risk-adjusted basis. Furthermore, idiosyncratic return momentum is materially more persistent than total return momentum in that it delivers statistically significant positive returns over longer term horizons including ranking periods of up to 24 months. A set of commodity specific and equity markets inspired factors are examined. Notably, the results corroborate that hedging pressure and term structure are sources of risk premium in commodity futures. The analysis in this chapter expose that momentum in commodity futures is fundamentally different to the momentum effect in equity markets. Specifically, momentum in commodity futures is entirely attributed to the momentum effect in long-only portfolios whilst none of the short-only strategies' returns are either profitable or statistically significant. Lastly, the two types of long-only momentum significantly outperform a passive investing into a broad market index such as S&P GSCI.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 24
Book Description
This paper provides novel findings on idiosyncratic momentum in commodity futures. Momentum strategy that forms portfolios on the basis of commodity-specific returns delivers compelling investment returns which are substantially more robust and superior to total return momentum on an absolute and risk-adjusted basis. Furthermore, idiosyncratic return momentum is materially more persistent than total return momentum in that it delivers statistically significant positive returns over longer term horizons including ranking periods of up to 24 months. A set of commodity specific and equity markets inspired factors are examined. Notably, the results corroborate that hedging pressure and term structure are sources of risk premium in commodity futures. The analysis in this chapter expose that momentum in commodity futures is fundamentally different to the momentum effect in equity markets. Specifically, momentum in commodity futures is entirely attributed to the momentum effect in long-only portfolios whilst none of the short-only strategies' returns are either profitable or statistically significant. Lastly, the two types of long-only momentum significantly outperform a passive investing into a broad market index such as S&P GSCI.
Strategies Based on Momentum and Term Structure in Financialized Commodity Markets
Author: Adam Zaremba
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 16
Book Description
The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of the financialization of commodity markets on the profitability of strategies based on momentum and term structure. The performance of an array of portfolios from double-sorts on non-commercial traders' participation, historical returns and term spreads are tested against a risk model. The analysis covers the listing of 26 commodities in the period 1986-2013. First and foremost, the paper provides a fresh evidence for the validity of strategies based on momentum and term structure investing in commodity markets. Secondly, it proves that term structure strategies generate significantly higher performance results in non-financialized markets. Moreover, it supports the thesis that market financialization adversely affects momentum profits. The results are important in terms of tactical and strategic asset allocation in commodity markets. They imply that investors who implement momentum or term structure based strategies should also consider the composition of market participants.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 16
Book Description
The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of the financialization of commodity markets on the profitability of strategies based on momentum and term structure. The performance of an array of portfolios from double-sorts on non-commercial traders' participation, historical returns and term spreads are tested against a risk model. The analysis covers the listing of 26 commodities in the period 1986-2013. First and foremost, the paper provides a fresh evidence for the validity of strategies based on momentum and term structure investing in commodity markets. Secondly, it proves that term structure strategies generate significantly higher performance results in non-financialized markets. Moreover, it supports the thesis that market financialization adversely affects momentum profits. The results are important in terms of tactical and strategic asset allocation in commodity markets. They imply that investors who implement momentum or term structure based strategies should also consider the composition of market participants.
Tactical Allocation in Commodity Futures Markets
Author: Ana-Maria Fuertes
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
This paper examines the combined role of momentum and term structure signals for the design of profitable trading strategies in commodity futures markets. With significant annualized alphas of 10.14% and 12.66% respectively, the momentum and term structure strategies appear profitable when implemented individually. With an abnormal return of 21.02%, a novel double-sort strategy that exploits both momentum and term structure signals clearly outperforms the single-sort strategies. This double-sort strategy can additionally be utilized as a portfolio diversification tool. Interestingly, the abnormal performance of the double-sort portfolios cannot be explained by a lack of liquidity or data mining and is robust to transaction costs and to different specifications of the risk-return trade-off.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
This paper examines the combined role of momentum and term structure signals for the design of profitable trading strategies in commodity futures markets. With significant annualized alphas of 10.14% and 12.66% respectively, the momentum and term structure strategies appear profitable when implemented individually. With an abnormal return of 21.02%, a novel double-sort strategy that exploits both momentum and term structure signals clearly outperforms the single-sort strategies. This double-sort strategy can additionally be utilized as a portfolio diversification tool. Interestingly, the abnormal performance of the double-sort portfolios cannot be explained by a lack of liquidity or data mining and is robust to transaction costs and to different specifications of the risk-return trade-off.
On Commodity Trading Strategies
Author: Georgios Rallis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Exploiting Commodity Momentum Along the Futures Curves
Author: Wilma de Groot
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 51
Book Description
This study examines novel momentum strategies in commodities futures markets that incorporate term-structure information. We show that momentum strategies that invest in contracts on the futures curve with the largest expected roll-yield or the strongest momentum earn significantly higher risk-adjusted returns than a traditional momentum strategy, which only invests in the nearest contracts. Moreover, when incorporating conservative transaction costs we observe that our low-turnover momentum strategy more than doubles the net return compared to a traditional momentum strategy.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 51
Book Description
This study examines novel momentum strategies in commodities futures markets that incorporate term-structure information. We show that momentum strategies that invest in contracts on the futures curve with the largest expected roll-yield or the strongest momentum earn significantly higher risk-adjusted returns than a traditional momentum strategy, which only invests in the nearest contracts. Moreover, when incorporating conservative transaction costs we observe that our low-turnover momentum strategy more than doubles the net return compared to a traditional momentum strategy.
The Risk and Return of Active Vs Passive Trading Strategies with Commodity Futures
Author: Hui Jiang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
This paper investigates relationships between profits from dynamic trading strategies, risk premium, convenience yields, and net hedging pressures for commodity futures. The term structure of oil, gold, copper and soybeans futures markets contains predictive power for the corresponding term premium. However, only oil futures and soybean futures lead their spot premium. Significant momentum profits are identified in both outright futures and spread trading strategies when the spot premium and the term premium are used to form winner and loser portfolios. Profits from active strategies based on winner and loser portfolios are conditioned on market structure and net hedging pressure effects. Dynamic trading strategies based on contracts with extreme backwardation, extreme contango, and extreme hedging pressures are also tested. On average, spread trading outperforms outright futures trading in capturing the term structure risk and hedging pressure risk. For such strategies, long-short the long-term spread offers the greatest and most significant return and it offers the only exploitable trading profits built on the past hedging pressure.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
This paper investigates relationships between profits from dynamic trading strategies, risk premium, convenience yields, and net hedging pressures for commodity futures. The term structure of oil, gold, copper and soybeans futures markets contains predictive power for the corresponding term premium. However, only oil futures and soybean futures lead their spot premium. Significant momentum profits are identified in both outright futures and spread trading strategies when the spot premium and the term premium are used to form winner and loser portfolios. Profits from active strategies based on winner and loser portfolios are conditioned on market structure and net hedging pressure effects. Dynamic trading strategies based on contracts with extreme backwardation, extreme contango, and extreme hedging pressures are also tested. On average, spread trading outperforms outright futures trading in capturing the term structure risk and hedging pressure risk. For such strategies, long-short the long-term spread offers the greatest and most significant return and it offers the only exploitable trading profits built on the past hedging pressure.
Price-Based Investment Strategies
Author: Adam Zaremba
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319915304
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 325
Book Description
This compelling book examines the price-based revolution in investing, showing how research over recent decades has reinvented technical analysis. The authors discuss the major groups of price-based strategies, considering their theoretical motivation, individual and combined implementation, and back-tested results when applied to investment across country stock markets. Containing a comprehensive sample of performance data, taken from 24 major developed markets around the world and ranging over the last 25 years, the authors construct practical portfolios and display their performance—ensuring the book is not only academically rigorous, but practically applicable too. This is a highly useful volume that will be of relevance to researchers and students working in the field of price-based investing, as well as individual investors, fund pickers, market analysts, fund managers, pension fund consultants, hedge fund portfolio managers, endowment chief investment officers, futures traders, and family office investors.
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319915304
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 325
Book Description
This compelling book examines the price-based revolution in investing, showing how research over recent decades has reinvented technical analysis. The authors discuss the major groups of price-based strategies, considering their theoretical motivation, individual and combined implementation, and back-tested results when applied to investment across country stock markets. Containing a comprehensive sample of performance data, taken from 24 major developed markets around the world and ranging over the last 25 years, the authors construct practical portfolios and display their performance—ensuring the book is not only academically rigorous, but practically applicable too. This is a highly useful volume that will be of relevance to researchers and students working in the field of price-based investing, as well as individual investors, fund pickers, market analysts, fund managers, pension fund consultants, hedge fund portfolio managers, endowment chief investment officers, futures traders, and family office investors.
Commodity Strategies
Author: Thomas J. Dorsey
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470179082
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 210
Book Description
Praise for Commodity Strategies "I have read many books on Point & Figure charting, but this is the first in its category-on the application of the time-tested methodology of Point & Figure charting, in particular, the concept of 'relative strength,' to pick outperforming commodities as well as to achieve diversification of non-correlated assets. If you are looking for a profitable and comprehensive methodology to making money from the commodity and currency markets and ETFs, look no further-you have found it. This book has it all." -Fred Tam, MPhil, CFTe, MSTA, lecturer in technical analysis at University Malaya and Open University Malaysia "Tom Dorsey is a market wizard who continues to stimulate the investor's mind. Commodity Strategies is powerful from start to finish with charts and many interesting insights. It's a clear guide for anyone looking to expand their investment horizon." -Joseph Barrato, EVP of Investment Strategies, Arrow Funds "This book and Dorsey's commodity strategies provide a much-needed, disciplined, and risk-managed framework for when and how to incorporate commodities into a portfolio. His investment methodologies along with the evolution of ETFs into alternative asset classes like commodities and currencies are a match made in heaven." -H. Bruce Bond, President and CEO, PowerShares Capital Management
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470179082
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 210
Book Description
Praise for Commodity Strategies "I have read many books on Point & Figure charting, but this is the first in its category-on the application of the time-tested methodology of Point & Figure charting, in particular, the concept of 'relative strength,' to pick outperforming commodities as well as to achieve diversification of non-correlated assets. If you are looking for a profitable and comprehensive methodology to making money from the commodity and currency markets and ETFs, look no further-you have found it. This book has it all." -Fred Tam, MPhil, CFTe, MSTA, lecturer in technical analysis at University Malaya and Open University Malaysia "Tom Dorsey is a market wizard who continues to stimulate the investor's mind. Commodity Strategies is powerful from start to finish with charts and many interesting insights. It's a clear guide for anyone looking to expand their investment horizon." -Joseph Barrato, EVP of Investment Strategies, Arrow Funds "This book and Dorsey's commodity strategies provide a much-needed, disciplined, and risk-managed framework for when and how to incorporate commodities into a portfolio. His investment methodologies along with the evolution of ETFs into alternative asset classes like commodities and currencies are a match made in heaven." -H. Bruce Bond, President and CEO, PowerShares Capital Management
Commodities
Author: H. Kent Baker
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0190656026
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 681
Book Description
Commodities: Markets, Performance, and Strategies provides a comprehensive view of commodity markets by describing and analyzing historical commodity performance, vehicles for investing in commodities, portfolio strategies, and current topics. It begins with the basics of commodity markets and various investment vehicles. The book then highlights the unique risk and return profiles of commodity investments, along with the dangers from mismanaged risk practices. The book also provides important insights into recent developments, including high frequency trading, financialization, and the emergence of virtual currencies as commodities. Readers of Commodities: Markets, Performance, and Strategies can gain an in-depth understanding about the multiple dimensions of commodity investing from experts from around the world. Commodity markets can be accessed with products that create unique risk and return dynamics for investors worldwide. The authors provide insights in a range of areas, from the economics of supply and demand for individual physical commodities through the financial products used to gain exposure to commodities. The book balances useful practical advice on commodity exposure while exposing the reader to various pitfalls inherent in these markets. Readers interested in a basic understanding will benefit as will those looking for more in-depth presentations of specific areas within commodity markets. Overall, Commodities: Markets, Performance, and Strategies provides a fresh look at the myriad dimensions of investing in these globally important markets.
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0190656026
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 681
Book Description
Commodities: Markets, Performance, and Strategies provides a comprehensive view of commodity markets by describing and analyzing historical commodity performance, vehicles for investing in commodities, portfolio strategies, and current topics. It begins with the basics of commodity markets and various investment vehicles. The book then highlights the unique risk and return profiles of commodity investments, along with the dangers from mismanaged risk practices. The book also provides important insights into recent developments, including high frequency trading, financialization, and the emergence of virtual currencies as commodities. Readers of Commodities: Markets, Performance, and Strategies can gain an in-depth understanding about the multiple dimensions of commodity investing from experts from around the world. Commodity markets can be accessed with products that create unique risk and return dynamics for investors worldwide. The authors provide insights in a range of areas, from the economics of supply and demand for individual physical commodities through the financial products used to gain exposure to commodities. The book balances useful practical advice on commodity exposure while exposing the reader to various pitfalls inherent in these markets. Readers interested in a basic understanding will benefit as will those looking for more in-depth presentations of specific areas within commodity markets. Overall, Commodities: Markets, Performance, and Strategies provides a fresh look at the myriad dimensions of investing in these globally important markets.