Changes in Extreme Hydroclimate Events in Interior Alaskan Boreal Forest Watersheds PDF Download
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Author: Katrina Bennett
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 510
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Book Description
The high latitude regions of the globe are responding to climate change at unprecedented magnitudes and rates. As the climate warms, extreme hydroclimate events are likely to change more than the mean events, and it is the extreme changes that present a risk to society, the economy and the environment of the north. The subarctic boreal forest is one of the largest ecosystems in the world and is greatly understudied with respect to hydroclimate extremes. Thus, defining a baseline for changing extremes is the first step towards planning and implementing adaptation measures to reduce risk and costs associated with the changing extremes. This thesis focuses on quantitative analysis of extreme events using historical data and future model projections of changing temperature, precipitation and streamflow in the Interior forested region of boreal Alaska. Historically, shifts in the climate have resulted in declining magnitudes of peak flow for snow dominated and glacial Interior Alaskan basins. However, changes are variable and dependent upon watershed topography, permafrost conditions, and glacial extents. Therefore, adjacent basins respond in considerably different ways to the same climate drivers. For example, peak streamflow events in the adjacent Salcha and Chena River basins had different responses to changes in climate. In the higher elevation Salcha basin, maximum streamflow increased as spring temperatures increased but in the lower elevation Chena, winter precipitation was a control on increases in maximum streamflow, while both were influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Analysis of hydrologic change must take this variability into account to understand extreme hydroclimate responses and correctly account for process shifts. To examine future changes in peak streamflow, the implementation and parameterization of hydrologic models to simulate hydroclimate extremes is required. In the northern latitudes of the world, there is a sparse observational station network that may be used for evaluation and correction of hydrologic models. This presents a limitation to science in these regions of the globe and has led to a paucity of research results and consequently, a lack of understanding of the hydrology of northern landscapes. Input of observations from remote sensing and the implementation of models that contain parameterizations specific to northern regions (i.e. permafrost) is one aim of this thesis. Remote sensing of snow cover extent, an important indicator of climate change in the north, was positively validated at snow telemetry sites across Interior Alaska. Input of the snow cover extent observations into a hydrologic model used by the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center for streamflow flood forecasting improved discharge estimates for poorly observed basins, whereas the discharge estimates in basins with good quality river discharge observations improved little. Estimates of snow water equivalent were improved compared to station results and the adaptation of the model parameters indicated that the model is more robust, particularly during the snowmelt period when model simulations are error prone. Use of two independent hydrologic models and multiple global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios to simulate changes in future hydroclimate extremes indicated that large regime shifts are projected for snowmelt dominated basins of Interior Alaska. The Chena River basin, nearby Fairbanks, Alaska, is projected to be rainfall dominated by the 2080s, with smaller snowmelt peaks. Return intervals for flooding will increase by one-and-one half to double the flow volume magnitude compared to the historical return interval. Frequency of extreme streamflow events will increase five times the mean increase. These changes in extreme streamflow events necessitate further research on the implications for infrastructure, ecology and economy to constrain risk associated with the projected regime shift in boreal forested watersheds of Interior Alaska.
Author: Katrina Bennett
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 510
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Book Description
The high latitude regions of the globe are responding to climate change at unprecedented magnitudes and rates. As the climate warms, extreme hydroclimate events are likely to change more than the mean events, and it is the extreme changes that present a risk to society, the economy and the environment of the north. The subarctic boreal forest is one of the largest ecosystems in the world and is greatly understudied with respect to hydroclimate extremes. Thus, defining a baseline for changing extremes is the first step towards planning and implementing adaptation measures to reduce risk and costs associated with the changing extremes. This thesis focuses on quantitative analysis of extreme events using historical data and future model projections of changing temperature, precipitation and streamflow in the Interior forested region of boreal Alaska. Historically, shifts in the climate have resulted in declining magnitudes of peak flow for snow dominated and glacial Interior Alaskan basins. However, changes are variable and dependent upon watershed topography, permafrost conditions, and glacial extents. Therefore, adjacent basins respond in considerably different ways to the same climate drivers. For example, peak streamflow events in the adjacent Salcha and Chena River basins had different responses to changes in climate. In the higher elevation Salcha basin, maximum streamflow increased as spring temperatures increased but in the lower elevation Chena, winter precipitation was a control on increases in maximum streamflow, while both were influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Analysis of hydrologic change must take this variability into account to understand extreme hydroclimate responses and correctly account for process shifts. To examine future changes in peak streamflow, the implementation and parameterization of hydrologic models to simulate hydroclimate extremes is required. In the northern latitudes of the world, there is a sparse observational station network that may be used for evaluation and correction of hydrologic models. This presents a limitation to science in these regions of the globe and has led to a paucity of research results and consequently, a lack of understanding of the hydrology of northern landscapes. Input of observations from remote sensing and the implementation of models that contain parameterizations specific to northern regions (i.e. permafrost) is one aim of this thesis. Remote sensing of snow cover extent, an important indicator of climate change in the north, was positively validated at snow telemetry sites across Interior Alaska. Input of the snow cover extent observations into a hydrologic model used by the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center for streamflow flood forecasting improved discharge estimates for poorly observed basins, whereas the discharge estimates in basins with good quality river discharge observations improved little. Estimates of snow water equivalent were improved compared to station results and the adaptation of the model parameters indicated that the model is more robust, particularly during the snowmelt period when model simulations are error prone. Use of two independent hydrologic models and multiple global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios to simulate changes in future hydroclimate extremes indicated that large regime shifts are projected for snowmelt dominated basins of Interior Alaska. The Chena River basin, nearby Fairbanks, Alaska, is projected to be rainfall dominated by the 2080s, with smaller snowmelt peaks. Return intervals for flooding will increase by one-and-one half to double the flow volume magnitude compared to the historical return interval. Frequency of extreme streamflow events will increase five times the mean increase. These changes in extreme streamflow events necessitate further research on the implications for infrastructure, ecology and economy to constrain risk associated with the projected regime shift in boreal forested watersheds of Interior Alaska.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 18
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Book Description
Climate change will shift the frequency, intensity, duration and persistence of extreme hydroclimate events and have particularly disastrous consequences in vulnerable systems such as the warm permafrost-dominated Interior region of boreal Alaska. This work focuses on recent research results from nonparametric trends and nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) analyses at eight Interior Alaskan river basins for the past 50/60 years (1954/64-2013). Trends analysis of maximum and minimum streamflow indicates a strong (>+50%) and statistically significant increase in 11-day flow events during the late fall/winter and during the snowmelt period (late April/mid-May), followed by a significant decrease in the 11-day flow events during the post-snowmelt period (late May and into the summer). The April-May-June seasonal trends show significant decreases in maximum streamflow for snowmelt dominated systems (
Author: Thomas Alan Ager
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 2
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Author: Abraham Melesse Endalamaw
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Biotic communities
Languages : en
Pages : 506
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Book Description
The Interior Alaska boreal forest ecosystem is one of the largest ecosystems on Earth and lies between the warmer southerly temperate and colder Arctic regions. The ecosystem is underlain by discontinuous permafrost. The presence or absence of permafrost primarily controls water pathways and ecosystem composition. As a result, the region hosts two distinct ecotypes that transition over a very short spatial scale - often on the order of meters. Accurate mesoscale hydrological modeling of the region is critical as the region is experiencing unprecedented ecological and hydrological changes that have regional and global implications. However, accurate representation of the landscape heterogeneity and mesoscale hydrological processes has remained a big challenge. This study addressed this challenge by developing a simple landscape model from the hill-slope studies and in situ measurements over the past several decades. The new approach improves the mesoscale prediction of several hydrological processes including streamflow and evapotranspiration (ET). The impact of climate induced landscape change under a changing climate is also investigated. In the projected climate scenario, Interior Alaska is projected to undergo a major landscape shift including transitioning from a coniferous-dominated to deciduous-dominated ecosystem and from discontinuous permafrost to either a sporadic or isolated permafrost region. This major landscape shift is predicted to have a larger and complex impact in the predicted runoff, evapotranspiration, and moisture deficit (precipitation minus evapotranspiration). Overall, a large increase in runoff, evapotranspiration, and moisture deficit is predicted under future climate. Most hydrological climate change impact studies do not usually include the projected change in landscape into the model. In this study, we found that ignoring the projected ecosystem change could lead to an inaccurate conclusion. Hence, climate-induced vegetation and permafrost changes must be considered in order to fully account for the changes in hydrology.
Author: Rick T. Lader
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 276
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Book Description
The frequency and intensity of certain extreme weather events in Alaska are increasing, largely due to climate warming from greenhouse gas emissions. Future projections indicate that these trends will continue, potentially leading to billions of dollars in climate-related damages this century. Expected damages arise from increases in extreme precipitation, severe wildfire, altered ocean chemistry, land subsidence from permafrost thaw, and coastal erosion. This dissertation applies new downscaled reanalysis and climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to enhance current understanding of climate extremes in Alaska. Model output is analyzed for a historical period (1981-2010) and three projected periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) using representative concentration pathway 8.5. Unprecedented heat and precipitation are expected to occur when compared to the historical period. Maximum 1-day and consecutive 5-day precipitation amounts are expected to increase by 53% and 50%, respectively, and the number of summer days per year (Tmax > 25°C) increases from a statewide average of 1.5 from 1981-2010 to 29.7 for 2071-2100. Major alterations to the landscape of Alaska are anticipated due to a decreasing frequency of freezing temperatures. Growing season length extends by 48-87 days by 2071-2100 with the largest changes in northern Alaska. In contrast, projections indicate a reduced snow season length statewide and many locations in southwest Alaska no longer have continuous winter snow cover. Changes to these metrics indicate that a climate-warming signal emerges from the historical inter-annual variability, meaning that future distributions are entirely outside of those previously observed. The largest changes to extremes may be avoided by following a lower emissions trajectory, which would reduce the impacts and associated costs to maintain infrastructure and human health.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Black spruce
Languages : en
Pages : 352
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Book Description
The boreal forest provides essential ecosystem services and helps regulate global climate. With climate change occurring at a faster rate at high latitudes, including in the boreal forest biome, it is critical to understand how boreal forests are responding to these unprecedented changes. Despite much effort, uncertainty remains as to how boreal forest productivity has and will change with ongoing climate changes. Some of the uncertainty reflects the complex mosaic of regional climatic patterns, direct and indirect species-specific responses to regional climate, and heterogenous local site conditions that affect boreal forest productivity. I focused on the latter uncertainty: the potential role of topographic, edaphic, and biotic conditions in mediating the climate-growth responses of boreal tree species. My overarching goal was to quantify the radial growth response of black spruce (Picea mariana) and white spruce (Picea glauca), the two most common tree species in interior Alaska, to climate variability across a suite of site conditions to better understand the observed and predicted variation in climate driven productivity across a variable landscape. I employed a systematic sampling design to quantify the landscape-scale patterns in both environmental conditions and incremental annual growth of trees distributed across a 1.28 million-ha study area in Denali National Park and Preserve (and beyond in Chapter 4). I also used targeted sampling of carbon isotopes in tree rings to investigate potential drought stress. I found that near-surface permafrost, slope angle, and elevation strongly modified the magnitude, shape, and, in some cases, the direction of radial growth response of both species. For white spruce, the negative growth response to warm and dry summer conditions intensified in high competition stands and in areas receiving high potential solar radiation. During years with high cone and seed production, white spruce shifted its current year's carbon resources from radial growth to reproduction and showed signs of drought stress. I also observed differences between black and white spruce climate-growth responses, with near-surface permafrost driving their contrasting responses to June-July temperatures and with black spruce growth showing an overall more positive response to summer precipitation. These results demonstrate that local site and stand variables can force contrasting growth responses to similar climate conditions and help predict how future black and white spruce growth may play out with climate changes across a heterogeneous landscape. My results underscore the pivotal role of near surface permafrost in both the climate-growth responses and competitive dynamics of black and white spruce. Consequently, my results emphasize the importance of ongoing and predicted changes in the distribution and prevalence of permafrost for the future of the boreal forest.
Author: Benjamin V. Gaglioti
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 476
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Book Description
The climate is now changing rapidly at high-latitudes, and observing how the Arctic and sub-Arctic environment responded to prehistoric climate changes can hold valuable lessons as we adapt in the future. This dissertation presents four studies that use biogeochemical proxies to reconstruct environmental changes in northern Alaska over the last 40,000 years (40 ka). These records are used to infer how the environment responded to climate changes at different locations and over varying spatial and temporal scales. The first study presents a time series of stable oxygen isotopes contained in radiocarbon-dated (14C) willow wood to quantify the nature and rates of climate change on the North Slope of Alaska over the last 40 ka. The second study examines how past temperature fluctuations affected permafrost thaw and the release of ancient carbon over the last 14.5 ka by compiling 14C-age offsets in the sediment of a small lake in the Brooks Range foothills. In the third study, I document human-caused changes to boreal wildfire frequency near the city of Fairbanks to test whether the primeval forest type and permafrost in the surrounding watershed will be vulnerable to more frequent fires in the future. The fourth study examines how ice age (40-9 ka) climate changes impacted the activity of sand dunes, vegetation productivity, and the dynamics of permafrost recorded in a unique sedimentary exposure located near the Arctic Coastal Plain on Alaska’s North Slope. Overall, I present several new and interesting approaches and findings stemming from this work. Ancient willow isotopes show that between 17 and 8 ka, during the time when ice sheets were in retreat worldwide, temperatures fluctuated widely on the North Slope mostly in concert with those in Greenland. Most notably, rapid changes in temperature and moisture occurred during the initial deglacial warming (ca. 16 ka), and during the Younger Dryas cold period (12.9-11.7 ka). These climate trends were amplified on the North Slope by changes in sea-ice extent in adjacent seas, which also controlled the availability of local precipitation evaporated from these seas. However, these warming and cooling trends were occasionally dampened by the advent of more maritime climate accompanying sea-level rise during the early Holocene, and by the breakdown of the atmospheric circulation patterns created by continental ice sheets in North America during the last glacial maximum. Over the last 7 ka, a gradual, insolation-driven cooling trend ended in ca. AD 1850 when the exceptional rates of recent warming began that continue to today. I found that the vegetation, permafrost and sand dunes in Arctic Alaska were sensitive to external climate forcing, but their responses were moderated by strong, internal feedbacks, including the temperature-buffering effects that thick peat layers have on the underlying permafrost. Prior to peat buildup in the early Holocene, the timing of sedimentary transitions indicate permafrost and aeolian processes were highly responsive to the volatile climate during the last ice age, which included Greenland interstadials. This incessant ice age climate change, coupled with the complex biophysical landscape responses that are particular to the unglaciated Arctic, helped maintain the ecological mosaic of the Mammoth Steppe ecosystem. Prehistoric warming events triggered permafrost thaw and the release of ancient carbon during the Bølling-Allerød (14.5-12.9 ka) and early Holocene warm period (11.7-8.0 ka), and this release is likely to occur again given enough warming. In the boreal forest watershed near Fairbanks, Alaska, the current ecological regime has remained intact despite a three-fold increase in pre-settlement wildfires during the Fairbanks gold rush (1902-1940). Once continued warming surpasses the buffering effects of the current internal feedbacks of the North Slope and boreal forest and the threshold for change is reached, more dynamic aeolian and permafrost processes may again dominate as they did on the more unstable and diverse ice age landscape. Overall, the results of this work will be useful for understanding how climate and landscape change in northern Alaska will respond to global climate forcing in the future.
Author: United States. National Park Service. Alaska Regional Office
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 23
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Book Description
Author: Julie Koppel Maldonado
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319052667
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 178
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Book Description
With a long history and deep connection to the Earth’s resources, indigenous peoples have an intimate understanding and ability to observe the impacts linked to climate change. Traditional ecological knowledge and tribal experience play a key role in developing future scientific solutions for adaptation to the impacts. The book explores climate-related issues for indigenous communities in the United States, including loss of traditional knowledge, forests and ecosystems, food security and traditional foods, as well as water, Arctic sea ice loss, permafrost thaw and relocation. The book also highlights how tribal communities and programs are responding to the changing environments. Fifty authors from tribal communities, academia, government agencies and NGOs contributed to the book. Previously published in Climatic Change, Volume 120, Issue 3, 2013.
Author: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9781009157971
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 755
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Book Description
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
