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Author: Nektarios Aslanidis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This paper re-examines the issue of business cycle synchronization between the Central and East European countries (CEECs) and the Euro-area using threshold seemingly unrelated regressions. This new technique is useful in two ways. First, it takes into account contemporaneous linkages among the CEECs as well as between the CEECs and the Euro-area. Second, it captures business cycle regimes for the CEECs, which are driven by the Euro-area cycle. The methodology is applied to the three largest CEECs: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. The results show that while Hungary has very similar business cycle regimes to the Euro-area, the Czech Republic and particularly Poland are less synchronized.
Author: Nektarios Aslanidis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This paper re-examines the issue of business cycle synchronization between the Central and East European countries (CEECs) and the Euro-area using threshold seemingly unrelated regressions. This new technique is useful in two ways. First, it takes into account contemporaneous linkages among the CEECs as well as between the CEECs and the Euro-area. Second, it captures business cycle regimes for the CEECs, which are driven by the Euro-area cycle. The methodology is applied to the three largest CEECs: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. The results show that while Hungary has very similar business cycle regimes to the Euro-area, the Czech Republic and particularly Poland are less synchronized.
Author: Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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We analyze the degree of co-movements in real macroeconomic aggregates across selected euro area and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries applying a multi-factor model. Our results suggest that the evolution of the global European factor matches well the narrative of main economic events between 1995 and 2011, capturing among others the recession during the recent global financial and economic crisis. This factor plays a central role in explaining real output growth variability in euro area and is negligible in CEE countries. Furthermore, using Markov switching models and concordance indices, we shed light on an increase in business cycle synchronization, with the degree of concordance between country-specific and European business cycles being high.
Author: Marcus Kappler
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3790828556
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 197
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Book Description
This book offers the reader a state-of-the-art overview on theory and empirics of business cycle synchronisation, structural reform and economic integration. Focusing on the ongoing integration process in the euro area and the EU, it analyses the integration process that has taken place since the 1980s and which is marked by the advent of the euro and the substantial enlargement that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.
Author: Christian Gayer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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Book Description
Author: Jarko Fidrmuc
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
Tiivistelmä.
Author: Silvia Palasca
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3656443033
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 15
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Book Description
Essay from the year 2013 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, language: English, abstract: The European Union sets the premises for the appearance of a new phenomenon in the global economic setting: the synchronization of the national business cycles. The aim of this article is to statistically prove the existence of a Euro are business cycle through the study of a classic indicator- the annual change of the GDP and also through the use of foreign trade indicators-the annual changes in exports in imports. Also, it is important, at the end, to choose the best of these indicators or a combination thereof to use as a benchmark for further studies. The empiric study is useful to classify the European countries in clusters according to synchronization, a first step in adopting common policies.
Author: Carlo Di Giorgio
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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This article investigates the possible business cycle linkages between CEECs (Central and Eastern European countries) that were candidates to enter the EMU and the euro area for the period 1993 to 2014. We analyse business cycle (a)symmetries for these countries by using Markov switching autoregressive models and synchronization tests. By analysing the correlations between the cyclical fluctuations for these countries, we examine the existence of common features between the individual cycles. By distinguishing between different regimes, we show that the indications of business cycle synchronization are quite high in the recession regime, but lower in the normal and high growth regimes, with the exceptions of Hungary and Poland.
Author: Jarko Fidrmuc
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
We review the literature on business cycle correlation between the euro area and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), a topic that has gained attention as the newest EU members approach monetary union. Our meta-analysis of 35 identified publications suggests some CEECs already have comparably high correlation with the euro area business cycle. We find that estimation methodologies can have a significant effect on correlation coefficients. While CEEC central bankers tend to be more conservative in their estimates than academics or eurosystem researchers, we find no evidence of a geographical bias in the studies.
Author: António Portugal Duarte
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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The aim of this paper is to investigate business cycle synchronization between seven candidate countries to the Euro Area (EA) - Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden - and the Euro Area (EA-12/EA-19), France and Germany. The Hodrick-Prescott filter is used to decompose the real Gross Domestic Product into trend and cyclical components for the period 1995Q1-2019Q4. The results point to the existence of a strong business cycle synchronization between Sweden and the Euro Area, Germany, and France. The second highest correlation was observed for the Czech Republic followed by Hungary, Poland and Croatia. In contrast, Bulgaria and Romania show the weakest business cycle synchronization with both the Euro Area and the core economies. We conclude that Sweden is the most prepared country to be the next passenger in the single currency train from the perspective of business cycle synchronization.
Author: Christos S. Savva
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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