Balancing, Regression, Difference-In-Differences and Synthetic Control Methods PDF Download
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Author: Nikolay Doudchenko
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometric models
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
Abstract: In a seminal paper Abadie et al (2010) develop the synthetic control procedure for estimating the effect of a treatment, in the presence of a single treated unit and a number of control units, with pre-treatment outcomes observed for all units. The method constructs a set of weights such that covariates and pre-treatment outcomes of the treated unit are approximately matched by a weighted average of control units. The weights are restricted to be nonnegative and sum to one, which allows the procedure to obtain the weights even when the number of lagged outcomes is modest relative to the number of control units, a setting that is not uncommon in applications. In the current paper we propose a more general class of synthetic control estimators that allows researchers to relax some of the restrictions in the ADH method. We allow the weights to be negative, do not necessarily restrict the sum of the weights, and allow for a permanent additive difference between the treated unit and the controls, similar to difference-in-difference procedures. The weights directly minimize the distance between the lagged outcomes for the treated and the control units, using regularization methods to deal with a potentially large number of possible control units
Author: Nikolay Doudchenko
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometric models
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
Abstract: In a seminal paper Abadie et al (2010) develop the synthetic control procedure for estimating the effect of a treatment, in the presence of a single treated unit and a number of control units, with pre-treatment outcomes observed for all units. The method constructs a set of weights such that covariates and pre-treatment outcomes of the treated unit are approximately matched by a weighted average of control units. The weights are restricted to be nonnegative and sum to one, which allows the procedure to obtain the weights even when the number of lagged outcomes is modest relative to the number of control units, a setting that is not uncommon in applications. In the current paper we propose a more general class of synthetic control estimators that allows researchers to relax some of the restrictions in the ADH method. We allow the weights to be negative, do not necessarily restrict the sum of the weights, and allow for a permanent additive difference between the treated unit and the controls, similar to difference-in-difference procedures. The weights directly minimize the distance between the lagged outcomes for the treated and the control units, using regularization methods to deal with a potentially large number of possible control units
Author: Guido W. Imbens
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521885884
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 647
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Book Description
This text presents statistical methods for studying causal effects and discusses how readers can assess such effects in simple randomized experiments.
Author: Mr.Ari Aisen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455211907
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability on economic growth. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004, we find that higher degrees of political instability are associated with lower growth rates of GDP per capita. Regarding the channels of transmission, we find that political instability adversely affects growth by lowering the rates of productivity growth and, to a smaller degree, physical and human capital accumulation. Finally, economic freedom and ethnic homogeneity are beneficial to growth, while democracy may have a small negative effect.
Author: Scott Cunningham
Publisher: Yale University Press
ISBN: 0300251688
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 585
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Book Description
An accessible, contemporary introduction to the methods for determining cause and effect in the social sciences "Causation versus correlation has been the basis of arguments--economic and otherwise--since the beginning of time. Causal Inference: The Mixtape uses legit real-world examples that I found genuinely thought-provoking. It's rare that a book prompts readers to expand their outlook; this one did for me."--Marvin Young (Young MC) Causal inference encompasses the tools that allow social scientists to determine what causes what. In a messy world, causal inference is what helps establish the causes and effects of the actions being studied--for example, the impact (or lack thereof) of increases in the minimum wage on employment, the effects of early childhood education on incarceration later in life, or the influence on economic growth of introducing malaria nets in developing regions. Scott Cunningham introduces students and practitioners to the methods necessary to arrive at meaningful answers to the questions of causation, using a range of modeling techniques and coding instructions for both the R and the Stata programming languages.
Author: Martin Huber
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262374927
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 337
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Book Description
A comprehensive and cutting-edge introduction to quantitative methods of causal analysis, including new trends in machine learning. Reasoning about cause and effect—the consequence of doing one thing versus another—is an integral part of our lives as human beings. In an increasingly digital and data-driven economy, the importance of sophisticated causal analysis only deepens. Presenting the most important quantitative methods for evaluating causal effects, this textbook provides graduate students and researchers with a clear and comprehensive introduction to the causal analysis of empirical data. Martin Huber’s accessible approach highlights the intuition and motivation behind various methods while also providing formal discussions of key concepts using statistical notation. Causal Analysis covers several methodological developments not covered in other texts, including new trends in machine learning, the evaluation of interaction or interference effects, and recent research designs such as bunching or kink designs. Most complete and cutting-edge introduction to causal analysis, including causal machine learning Clean presentation of rigorous material avoids extraneous detail and emphasizes conceptual analogies over statistical notation Supplies a range of applications and practical examples using R
Author: Ms.Monique Newiak
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475599269
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
We use the Synthetic Control Method to study the effect of IMF advice on economic growth, inflation, and investment. The analysis exploits the existence of IMF programs that do not involve any financing (Policy Support Instruments, “PSIs”). This enables us to focus on the effects of IMF monitoring, advice, and approval (as opposed to direct financial assistance). In addition, countries with non-financial programs are typically not crisis-struck – thereby mitigating the reverse causality problem and facilitating the construction of counterfactuals. Results suggest that treated countries add about 1 percentage point in annual real GDP per capita growth, with inflation being lower by some 3 percentage points per year. While we do not find evidence for an impact on total investment and the resulting capital stock, PSI-treatment does seem to stimulate foreign direct investment.
Author: Francesca G Caselli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513596136
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
This paper studies whether countries benefit from servicing their debts during times of widespread sovereign defaults. Colombia is typically regarded as the only large Latin American country that did not default in the 1980s. Using archival research and formal econometric estimates of Colombia's probability of default, we show that in the early 1980s Colombia's fundamentals were not significantly different from those of the Latin American countries that defaulted on their debts. We also document that the different path chosen by Colombia was due to the authorities' belief that maintaining a good reputation in the international capital market would have substantial long-term payoffs. We show that the case of Colombia is more complex than what it is commonly assumed. Although Colombia had to re-profile its debts, high-level political support from the US allowed Colombia do to so outside the standard framework of an IMF program. Our counterfactual analysis shows that in the short to medium run, Colombia benefitted from avoiding an explicit default. Specifically, we find that GDP growth in the 1980s was higher than that of a counterfactual in which Colombia behaved like its neighboring countries. We also test whether Colombia's behavior in the 1980s led to long-term reputational benefits. Using an event study based on a large sudden stop, we find no evidence for such long-lasting reputational gains.
Author: AA.VV
Publisher: Casa Editrice Bonechi
ISBN: 8847629500
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 184
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Book Description
In the most recent years, Economic Statistics, like other applied and non-applied sciences, has been involved in the new intense data revolution, which regards all research fields, especially for data collection and data processing issues. The traditional statistical measures, used to monitor economic activities, are transformed from slow and periodic recordings into real-time information, with the need to integrate different sources of information. Complex data offer additional information to analyse economic phenomena, although main problems are still open questions regarding methodological issues, costs of collection, storing and analysis. In the light of this new scenario, the 2nd Conference on Economic Statistics “Statistical Analysis of Complex Economic Data: recent developments and applications”, which occurred in Florence on 7-8 February 2024, aimed to discuss the management and the usefulness of complex data in the analysis of economic phenomena, focusing on the recent developments and empirical applications. This Book of Short Papers includes 40 contributions presented and discussed during the Conference, offering the reader a summary of the contents of the Conference.
Author: James Peoples
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1787149498
Category : Transportation
Languages : en
Pages : 456
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Book Description
This volume examines the role that airports play in economic development and land values, the regulation and economic efficiency of airports, airport pricing and competition, and the role played by airports in influencing airline operations and networks.
Author: Ajay Agrawal
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226833127
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 172
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Book Description
A timely investigation of the potential economic effects, both realized and unrealized, of artificial intelligence within the United States healthcare system. In sweeping conversations about the impact of artificial intelligence on many sectors of the economy, healthcare has received relatively little attention. Yet it seems unlikely that an industry that represents nearly one-fifth of the economy could escape the efficiency and cost-driven disruptions of AI. The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: Health Care Challenges brings together contributions from health economists, physicians, philosophers, and scholars in law, public health, and machine learning to identify the primary barriers to entry of AI in the healthcare sector. Across original papers and in wide-ranging responses, the contributors analyze barriers of four types: incentives, management, data availability, and regulation. They also suggest that AI has the potential to improve outcomes and lower costs. Understanding both the benefits of and barriers to AI adoption is essential for designing policies that will affect the evolution of the healthcare system.
