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Author: Carlos Armando Morales Velasco
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Languages : en
Pages :
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According to the 2011 Energy Information Agency (EIA) global assessment, Mexico ranks 4th in shale gas resources. The Eagle Ford shale is the formation with the greatest expectation in Mexico given the success it has had in the US and its liquids-rich zone. Accurate estimation of the resource size and future production, as well as the uncertainties associated with them, is critical for the decision-making process of developing shale oil and gas resources. The complexity of the shale reservoirs and high variability in its properties generate large uncertainties in the long-term production and recovery factors of these plays. Another source of uncertainty is the limited production history. Given all these uncertainties, a probabilistic decline-curve analysis approach was chosen for this study, given that it is relatively simple, it enables performing a play-wide assessment with available production data and, more importantly, it quantifies the uncertainty in the resource size. Analog areas in the US Eagle Ford shale were defined based on available geologic information in both the US and Mexico. The Duong model coupled with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology was used to analyze and forecast production of wells located in the previously defined analog sectors in the US Eagle Ford shale. By combining the results of individual-well analyses, a type curve and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) distribution for each of the defined analog sectors was obtained. These distributions were combined with well-spacing assumptions and sector areas to generate the prospective-resources est imates. Similar probabilistic decline-curve-analysis methodology was used to estimate the reserves and contingent resources of existing wells. As of March 2013, the total prospective resources (P90-P50-P10) for the Eagle Ford shale in Mexico (MX-EFS) are estimated to be 527-1,139-7,268 MMSTB of oil and 17-37-217 TSCF of gas. To my knowledge, this is the first oil estimate published for this formation in Mexico. The most attractive sectors based on total estimated resources as well as individual-well type curves are located in the southeast of the Burgos Basin and east-west of the Sabinas basin. Because there has been very little development to date, estimates for reserves and contingent resources are much lower than those for prospective resources. Estimated reserves associated with existing wells and corresponding offset well locations are 18,375-34,722-59,667 MMSCF for gas and zero for oil. Estimated contingent resources are 14-64-228 MSTB of oil and 8,526-13,327-25,983 MMSCF of gas. The results of this work should provide a more reliable assessment of the size and uncertainties of the resources in the Mexican Eagle Ford shale than previous estimates obtained with less objective methodologies. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/151355
Author: Carlos Armando Morales Velasco
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
According to the 2011 Energy Information Agency (EIA) global assessment, Mexico ranks 4th in shale gas resources. The Eagle Ford shale is the formation with the greatest expectation in Mexico given the success it has had in the US and its liquids-rich zone. Accurate estimation of the resource size and future production, as well as the uncertainties associated with them, is critical for the decision-making process of developing shale oil and gas resources. The complexity of the shale reservoirs and high variability in its properties generate large uncertainties in the long-term production and recovery factors of these plays. Another source of uncertainty is the limited production history. Given all these uncertainties, a probabilistic decline-curve analysis approach was chosen for this study, given that it is relatively simple, it enables performing a play-wide assessment with available production data and, more importantly, it quantifies the uncertainty in the resource size. Analog areas in the US Eagle Ford shale were defined based on available geologic information in both the US and Mexico. The Duong model coupled with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology was used to analyze and forecast production of wells located in the previously defined analog sectors in the US Eagle Ford shale. By combining the results of individual-well analyses, a type curve and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) distribution for each of the defined analog sectors was obtained. These distributions were combined with well-spacing assumptions and sector areas to generate the prospective-resources est imates. Similar probabilistic decline-curve-analysis methodology was used to estimate the reserves and contingent resources of existing wells. As of March 2013, the total prospective resources (P90-P50-P10) for the Eagle Ford shale in Mexico (MX-EFS) are estimated to be 527-1,139-7,268 MMSTB of oil and 17-37-217 TSCF of gas. To my knowledge, this is the first oil estimate published for this formation in Mexico. The most attractive sectors based on total estimated resources as well as individual-well type curves are located in the southeast of the Burgos Basin and east-west of the Sabinas basin. Because there has been very little development to date, estimates for reserves and contingent resources are much lower than those for prospective resources. Estimated reserves associated with existing wells and corresponding offset well locations are 18,375-34,722-59,667 MMSCF for gas and zero for oil. Estimated contingent resources are 14-64-228 MSTB of oil and 8,526-13,327-25,983 MMSCF of gas. The results of this work should provide a more reliable assessment of the size and uncertainties of the resources in the Mexican Eagle Ford shale than previous estimates obtained with less objective methodologies. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/151355
Author: Xinglai Gong
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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The Eagle Ford play in south Texas is currently one of the hottest plays in the United States. In 2012, the average Eagle Ford rig count (269 rigs) was 15% of the total US rig count. Assessment of the oil and gas resources and their associated uncertainties in the early stages is critical for optimal development. The objectives of my research were to develop a probabilistic methodology that can reliably quantify the reserves and resources uncertainties in unconventional oil and gas plays, and to assess Eagle Ford shale oil and gas reserves, contingent resources, and prospective resources. I first developed a Bayesian methodology to generate probabilistic decline curves using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) that can quantify the reserves and resources uncertainties in unconventional oil and gas plays. I then divided the Eagle Ford play from the Sligo Shelf Margin to the San Macros Arch into 8 different production regions based on fluid type, performance and geology. I used a combination of the Duong model switching to the Arps model with b = 0.3 at the minimum decline rate to model the linear flow to boundary-dominated flow behavior often observed in shale plays. Cumulative production after 20 years predicted from Monte Carlo simulation combined with reservoir simulation was used as prior information in the Bayesian decline-curve methodology. Probabilistic type decline curves for oil and gas were then generated for all production regions. The wells were aggregated probabilistically within each production region and arithmetically between production regions. The total oil reserves and resources range from a P90 of 5.3 to P10 of 28.7 billion barrels of oil (BBO), with a P50 of 11.7 BBO; the total gas reserves and resources range from a P90 of 53.4 to P10 of 313.5 trillion cubic feet (TCF), with a P50 of 121.7 TCF. These reserves and resources estimates are much higher than the U.S. Energy Information Administration's 2011 recoverable resource estimates of 3.35 BBO and 21 TCF. The results of this study provide a critical update on the reserves and resources estimates and their associated uncertainties for the Eagle Ford shale formation of South Texas. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/151324
Author: Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
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ISBN:
Category : Mexico
Languages : en
Pages : 84
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Author:
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Category : Mexico
Languages : en
Pages : 128
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Author: Grecia Alexandra Chavez Urbina
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 244
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Unconventional resources, particularly shale reservoirs, are a significant component in oil and gas production in the United States as they represent (as of May 2015) 48 and 58 percent, respectively, of the total oil and gas produced. However, there has been a deceleration on oil and gas production in general because of low market prices. The drastic decline in oil and gas prices that started in 2014 has companies struggling to continue their operations, resulting in negative financial outcomes for 2015 for most companies. The present work examines the financial results of three companies, EOG Resources, Pioneer Natural Resources, and Chesapeake Energy, along with their particular well productivity using the Logistic Growth model to forecast production in one of the most prolific shale plays in the United States, the Eagle Ford. This work also examines the economic feasibility of drilling new wells when oil prices are low using a discounted cash flow model for each company. The financial analysis shows that from the three companies, Pioneer Natural Resources has the best financial results; its high cash-flow-to-debt ratio, and low debt and debt-to-equity ratios make it an attractive company to invest in. In contrast, Chesapeake has the worst results which represents high risk for investors, and EOG has moderate results that still make it a good company to invest in. The discounted cash flow model demonstrate that under the cost assumptions and estimated production used in this work, EOG gets the best results from their wells located in the Eagle Ford with break-even prices bordering the 40 $/bbl compared to the other companies with break-even prices above 87 $/bbl for Pioneer and 89 $/bbl for Chesapeake. From the discounted cash flow model, it can also be concluded that none of the companies in the analysis is expected to gain revenue from drilling new wells if oil prices are under 40 $/bbl, and that companies that are quick to respond to the low prices by reducing their drilling and completion costs can significantly improve their well economics.
Author:
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ISBN:
Category : Petroleum industry and trade
Languages : en
Pages : 124
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Author: Eduardo Javier Meneses-Scherrer
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 364
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Mexico's oil and gas production decline from conventional reservoirs calls for the assessment of their Late Cenomanian-Turonian shale resources. However, a geological screening of the Texas Gulf coast and east and northeast Mexico indicates that their distinct paleogeographic and tectonic development preclude a straightforward correlation between the Upper Cretaceous Eagle Ford Group of Texas and equivalent formations in Mexico. In Texas, east of the Frio River Line, extensional tectonics prevailed during the Mesozoic-Cenozoic; while in Mexico compressional tectonics influenced sedimentation from the late Cenomanian through the Eocene. Late Cenomanian compression led to paleobathymetry variations that may have influenced the lithology, distribution, and thickness of the lower organic-rich interval of the Eagle Ford Group, as well as the uplift of a western landmass that was a source of detrital argillaceous sediments. Laramide orogeny produced the exhumation of the late Cenomanian-Turonian section in most of the eastern part of Mexico, and its burial in foreland basins below Cenozoic sediments with contrasting thickness. Therefore, uplift and loading burial impacted critical depth-dependent factors such as thermal maturation, pore pressure, and viscosity. Hence, in east and northeast Mexico four areas have geological and geotechnical characteristics to be potential sweet spots in the Eagle Ford trend. The areas are the Sabinas Coal Basin, the western part of the Burgos Basin, the southwestern part of the Maverick Basin, and the southwestern part of the Tampico-Misantla Basin. Each area may be an opportunity to ensure Mexico's energy mix and offset the declining production; nevertheless, these areas present significant technical, operational, and public challenges such as water shortage or mismanagement, insufficient road and pipeline infrastructure, and the ability to deal with people with strong cultures and social roots. Once the geologic and engineering data extracted from the appraisal wells permit the understanding of the economic potential of the sweet spots, supply chains may develop around a Northeastern Hub embracing the Burgos, Maverick, and Sabinas Coal Basins, and an Eastern Hub, including the Tampico-Misantla Basin. High-quality project management and decision-making process based on economic and scientific facts may permit a fruitful learning curve.
Author: Andres Mauricio Del Busto Pinzon
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Languages : en
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The Eagle Ford shale of South Texas has become one of the most active and most important shale plays in the U.S. This success has been possible because of the unique geology and richness of the play, allowing significant production of natural gas, condensate liquids, and oil; the rapid improvement of long horizontal lateral drilling and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing completion technologies; and a long-term period of sustained high oil prices. This study develops a probabilistic before-tax economic model to estimate the reserves of the Eagle Ford shale, under different stochastic parameters and scenarios usually not considered by evaluators. The model is used to assess impact and sensitivity on reserves and economic yardsticks considering the variability and uncertainty of project inputs such as production streams, commodity prices, capital investments, and operational costs. We use existing probabilistic methodologies for production and price forecasting and use public and private sources to develop statistical distributions for additional parameters, including differentials for commodity prices, natural gas content for the different production regions, and water/gas and water/oil ratios. We consider three evaluation scenarios-single-well, 100-well, and Full-well-in each of the proposed production regions of the Eagle Ford shale, with calibrated probabilistic inputs for each region. Single-well results show how it is hard to produce complete distributions of reserves all across the play, although production regions with better productivity are identified. Results from the scenarios with multiple wells, show how the commerciality of the considered development projects is achievable in liquid-rich production regions and with moderate to high price forecasts. This study provides useful information and results to oil and gas professionals about key areas that influence the commercial development of Eagle Ford shale. The methodology to perform evaluations with probabilistic components enables better project development and investment decisions and can be applied to other shale plays. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/151888
Author: John Albert Breyer
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780891813903
Category : Oil-shales
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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"Known as a world-class source rock for years, the Eagle Ford Shale became a world-class oil reservoir early in the second decade of the 21st century. Oil production from the Eagle Ford grew from 352 barrels of oil per day (BOPD) in 2008 to over 1.7 million BOPD in March 2015. Since then, the play has been a victim of its own success. Production from shale oil in the United States has helped contribute to a glut in world oil supply that led to a precipitous drop in oil prices beginning in the summer of 2014. As prices fell from over $100 per barrel in July 2014, to less than $30 per barrel in January 2016, production from the Eagle Ford declined over 500,000 BOPD. Anyone interested in the geology behind this remarkable play and the new ideas that reshaped the global energy supply should read this book. The hardcover book contains extended abstracts of the articles. Full articles are on the included DVD"--Publisher's website.
Author: Vidya Sagar Bammidi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Petroleum engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 218
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