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Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498342442
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
Reserves have a central place in the policy tool kit of most economies, providing insurance against shocks. In conjunction with sound policies, they can help reduce the likelihood of balance of payment crises and preserve economic and financial stability. Reserves, however, can result from both precautionary and non-precautionary policy objectives and institutional settings. While they can bring several important benefits, reserve holdings can sometimes be costly. This paper brings together recent Fund work on reserve adequacy issues aiming to strengthen their discussion in bilateral surveillance. Despite the ongoing debate on reserve issues, there is little consensus about how to assess reserve holdings in different economies, even though this is an important aspect of a member’s external stability assessment. The work stream of which this paper is part aims to fill this gap by outlining a framework for discussing reserve adequacy issues in different economies. In this regard, the paper also forms part of the Fund’s response to the 2012 IEO evaluation of the Fund’s advice related to international reserves, which recommended, inter alia, that assessments of international reserves in bilateral surveillance reports should be more detailed and reflect country circumstances. To this end, the paper proposes that, where warranted, individual country Article IV reports include a fuller discussion of the authorities’ stated objectives (precautionary and non-precautionary) for holding reserves, an assessment of the reserve needs for precautionary purposes, and a discussion of the cost of reserves. The aim would be to ensure evenhandedness so that countries with similar circumstances are assessed in similar ways, while allowing the depth and emphasis of this discussion to vary depending on country conditions and needs
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498342442
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54
Get Book Here
Book Description
Reserves have a central place in the policy tool kit of most economies, providing insurance against shocks. In conjunction with sound policies, they can help reduce the likelihood of balance of payment crises and preserve economic and financial stability. Reserves, however, can result from both precautionary and non-precautionary policy objectives and institutional settings. While they can bring several important benefits, reserve holdings can sometimes be costly. This paper brings together recent Fund work on reserve adequacy issues aiming to strengthen their discussion in bilateral surveillance. Despite the ongoing debate on reserve issues, there is little consensus about how to assess reserve holdings in different economies, even though this is an important aspect of a member’s external stability assessment. The work stream of which this paper is part aims to fill this gap by outlining a framework for discussing reserve adequacy issues in different economies. In this regard, the paper also forms part of the Fund’s response to the 2012 IEO evaluation of the Fund’s advice related to international reserves, which recommended, inter alia, that assessments of international reserves in bilateral surveillance reports should be more detailed and reflect country circumstances. To this end, the paper proposes that, where warranted, individual country Article IV reports include a fuller discussion of the authorities’ stated objectives (precautionary and non-precautionary) for holding reserves, an assessment of the reserve needs for precautionary purposes, and a discussion of the cost of reserves. The aim would be to ensure evenhandedness so that countries with similar circumstances are assessed in similar ways, while allowing the depth and emphasis of this discussion to vary depending on country conditions and needs
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498345646
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
operational guidance to staff on reserve adequacy discussions in the IMF’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance. It is based on the views presented in the policy paper Assessing Reserve Adequacy—Specific Proposals and the related Board discussion. The note addresses key issues related to Staff’s advice on the assessment of the adequacy of reserves and related items, including answering the following questions: What is the expected coverage of reserve issues at different stages of the bilateral surveillance process (Policy Note, mission, and Staff Report)? Which reserve adequacy tools best fit different economies based on their financial maturity, economic flexibility, and market access? What do possible reserve needs in mature markets relate to, and how can their adequacy be assessed? How can reserve adequacy discussions for emerging and deepening financial markets be tailored and applied to better evaluate reserve levels in: (i) commodity-intensive economies; (ii) countries with capital flow management measures (CFMs); and (iii) partially and fully dollarized economies? What reserve adequacy considerations hold for countries with limited access to capital markets? How can metrics for these economies be tailored to evaluate their reserve needs? How should potential drains on reserves be covered? What are the various measures of the cost of reserves for countries with and without market access?
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484334256
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 69
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Book Description
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Dominica’s recovery from Tropical Storm Erika (August 2015) has been slower than anticipated, with output growth of 1 percent in 2016, dragged down by a storm-related decline in manufacturing. Moreover, capacity constraints and unfavorable weather slowed public investment more than anticipated. Despite ample liquidity, bank credit to the private sector remains weak, although this is in part relieved by growing lending by credit unions. Growth is projected to accelerate to above 3 percent in 2017–18 on the back of a pickup in public investment and several large-scale private projects with citizenship-by-investment and grant financing.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 77
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Book Description
The economy is recovering gradually but faces headwinds from the cost-of-living crisis, more limited policy space, and more frequent and costly climate shocks. Tourism rebounded in the second half of last year, but scarring effects from the pandemic, on the heels of large natural disasters, could prove significant considering lengthy school closures, the deep GDP contraction and associated erosion of fiscal space. Dominica’s climate adaptation and modernization agenda is driving growth, with priority being given to construction of a geothermal energy plant and a new international airport.
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513510983
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 65
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Book Description
This paper discusses Union of Comoros’ Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). Reflecting the large budgetary and external financing gaps arising from emergency assistance and reconstruction needs, the authorities are seeking financial assistance under the RCF and RFI exogenous shock windows. Comoros’ qualification is based on urgent balance of payments needs following a severe natural disaster. The authorities shared staff’s main policy recommendations. Efforts to address the cyclone’s impact will need to focus on mobilizing external financing, creating fiscal space by containing the wage bill, and spending mobilized resources in a well-targeted and timely manner. The authorities plan to address financial sector weaknesses, including by finding a solution for the critical situation of the postal bank, closely monitoring nonperforming loans, and addressing obstacles in the judicial system to facilitate the use of collateral and promote lending.
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513558919
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 76
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Book Description
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that The Gambia has experienced large balance of payments and fiscal imbalances, caused by persistent policy slippages in recent years and financial difficulties in public enterprises. The IMF supported the authorities’ efforts through a Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) disbursement in early April 2015 and a Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). However, major policy slippages have occurred since the RCF disbursement, pushing the SMP off track and worsening the outlook considerably. In light of the elevated level of public debt, the government should prioritize infrastructure investments that help address poverty and improve the business environment. The authorities are encouraged to continue their efforts to improve supervision capacity to enhance financial stability.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498303684
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 69
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Book Description
This Selected Issues paper estimates Ecuador’s potential growth in the range of 1 3/4 to 3 percent. The lower estimate corresponds to an extrapolation of recent trends while the higher estimate could be achievable through the implementation of a reform agenda that addresses fiscal and competitiveness challenges of Ecuador. The paper also develops models to nowcast and forecast GDP to improve the accuracy of growth projections. The oil sector remains an important driver of economic activity; however, it is not as important as it once was. A simple growth accounting exercise is used to decompose Ecuador’s growth between production factors accumulation; capital and labor, and total factor productivity. The study shows that low total factor productivity is the reason behind Ecuador’s recent economic decline and has been a negative contributor to long-term growth. The paper also explores different vector autoregression models to identify the best one to forecast real GDP in Ecuador.
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475529686
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 63
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Book Description
This paper discusses the common policies needed for the member countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). CEMAC growth was subdued in 2015. It slowed to 1.6 percent, from 4.9 percent in 2014, because of reduced public investment and lower oil production. Policies to counter the oil-price shock need to focus on fiscal consolidation and real-economy reforms. In the wake of the oil-price shock, monetary financing has been the primary response tool. Fiscal policy coordination among members should be strengthened, and fiscal discipline enforcement is needed. Real-economy reforms, focusing on improving the business climate and boosting private investment, are also needed to preserve macroeconomic stability.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 86
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Book Description
Economic growth rebounded strongly in 2022 despite global headwinds. GDP is estimated to have grown by 9 percent in 2022 after contracting 14.5 percent in 2020 and 0.9 percent in 2021. The lifting of all COVID-related travel restrictions in August sparked a strong rebound in the tourism sector and across the economy. Yet economic activity is not back to pre-pandemic levels. Inflation picked up, increasing from 1.9 percent in 2021 to 3.8 percent in 2022, reaching the highest level in a decade. The authorities’ proactive policy response, facilitated by the fiscal buffers accumulated from a decade of prudent fiscal policy, helped shelter domestic prices from high global energy and food prices. These measures nonetheless took a heavy toll on fiscal accounts in 2022. The primary balance ex-CBI revenue and land buybacks, an indicator of the underlying fiscal stance, deteriorated to a deficit of 17 percent of GDP (vs. 15 percent in 2021). Large CBI inflows in 2022 helped finance this expansion, keeping public debt below the ECCU regional target of 60 percent of GDP. The current account deficit is estimated to have narrowed in 2022, supported by tourism recovery.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 149834111X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 65
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Book Description
Reserves remain a critical liquidity buffer for most countries. They are generally associated with lower crisis risks (crisis prevention) as well as space for authorities to respond to shocks (crisis mitigation). While other instruments, such as official credit lines and bilateral swap lines, are also external buffers, for most countries they principally act as a complement to their official reserves. For countries with sound fundamentals and a good policy framework, reserves provide policy makers with considerable space to respond to transitory shocks. However, this space diminishes as fundamentals deteriorate and the existence of adequate reserves does not, by itself, eliminate the risk of market pressures.
