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Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 352
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Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 352
Get Book
Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author: Dan Gardner
Publisher: McClelland & Stewart
ISBN: 0771035217
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 319
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Book Description
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
Author: Charles Jencks
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Architecture
Languages : en
Pages : 154
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Book Description
This classic of prediction, written in 1969, has now been brought up to date, the prophecies judges, and the omens extended to 2030.The success rate of Jencks' forecasts and his method of combining expert prediction with structural analysis make this book an important contribution to the art of conjecture. Not only did he predict the a series of innovations that have changed the world, such as the Internet, but he identified six main architectural traditions that continuously transform over time. This provides a method of gauging what are likely to be the future movements in architecture, a useful and fascinating tool for speculation. No other book of forecasting is like it, a hypertext of retrospection, judgement and further prophecy.
Author: Gayatri Devi Vasudev
Publisher: Motilal Banarsidass Publishe
ISBN: 9788120832299
Category : Body, Mind & Spirit
Languages : en
Pages : 284
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Book Description
Astrology and interest in it have been growing at a pace that does justice to the subject as a discipline of great consequence in handling the complexities and ills of human life and existence. The Art of Prediction in Astrology is a simple guide to the techniques of interpretation of the horoscope. This book teaches how to apply and interpret some important planetary combinations and dicta found in classical works to practical cases. This shows further how to analyse and understand:*Yogas for fame and lasting reputation, renunciation, spiritual realization, tyranny and homicidal tendencies.*Difficult concepts such as the difference between Resi and Bhave, Yamaganda and Yamakantaka, the Moon's role in understanding human psychology and behavious and the nexus between Rahu-Ketu and schizophrenic tendencies.*Eclipses and how they influence the timing of events.*Solar activity and planetary movements in relation to weather, agricultural crops and tsunamis.*Principles of Muhurta and natal horoscopy in making forecasts on the fall and continuance of governments and how Martian movements can trigger terrorist attacks such as that of September 11, 2001.*Simplifies the intricate art of chart delineation with illustrations of important personalities.
Author: David Berlinski
Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
ISBN: 9780151005277
Category : Body, Mind & Spirit
Languages : en
Pages : 326
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Book Description
Explores the enigmatic world of astrology--one of the oldest "predictive arts"--Revealing its complexities and scientific merit.
Author: J.N. Bhasin
Publisher: Sagar Publications
ISBN:
Category : Body, Mind & Spirit
Languages : en
Pages : 217
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Book Description
It has been endeavoured to introduce a few specialties in this book. Firstly to discuss for the benefit of the student of astrology a maximum number of diseases under astrological laws. Secondly to supply in support of that discussion as many illustrations from actual life as is possible, with a view to make the subject readily understandable. Thirdly we have tried to place the astrological material in a rational & logical manner, so that the question of health and disease can be tackled in an independent way without being too much subservient to the shlokas of the text. We do meet with shlokas dealing with most of the diseases but there are very few books, if at all, which discuss the “how” and “why” of disease. We have attempted to discuss the constituents of diseases and the astrological factors representing them severely in order that the student can extend the application of the method to new diseases.
Author: J.N. Bhasin
Publisher: Sagar Publications
ISBN:
Category : Body, Mind & Spirit
Languages : en
Pages : 348
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Book Description
Astrology is both a science and an art. It is science in the sense that it is based on the pure science of astronomy and mathematics and an art in the sense that it requires sufficient practice to give adequate results. The mathematical portion of. astrology is comparatively easier, as most of its requirements are already available to us without much labour. Unlike old days, an astrologer is not called upon these days, to work out the longitudes of the heavenly bodies himself, These are easily available in an up-to-date form in modern ephemeris, and only have to be culled out. But the art Portion of astrology requires much time, constant Practice and devoted attention fora correct appraisal of the birth chart.
Author: John E. Crawford
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Pavements
Languages : en
Pages : 92
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Book Description
This report focuses on the finite element idealization as related to principles of pavement analysis, while other techniques and topics are introduced to provide a complete picture. The topics presented are organized to illustrate the similarities and consequences of using various prediction techniques. These topics include: the theoretical basis of the principal techniques, material models, comparison of analytical and measured results, and the selection of a prediction technique. (Author).
Author: Jean-François Sigrist
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119686717
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 218
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Book Description
Numerical simulation is a technique of major importance in various technical and scientific fields. Used to understand diverse physical phenomena or to design everyday objects, it plays a major role in innovation in the industrial sector. Whilst engineering curricula now include training courses dedicated to it, numerical simulation is still not well-known in some economic sectors, and even less so among the general public. Simulation involves the mathematical modeling of the real world, coupled with the computing power offered by modern technology. Designed to perform virtual experiments, digital simulation can be considered as an "art of prediction". Embellished with a rich iconography and based on the testimony of researchers and engineers, this book shines a light on this little-known art. It is the first of two volumes and focuses on the principles, methods and industrial practice of numerical modeling.
Author: J. N. Bhasin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
