Analyst Forecasts and the Permanence of the Tax Change Component of Earnings PDF Download
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Author: Sangwan Kim
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Despite the central importance of equity analysts as information intermediaries in capital markets, prior studies provide only limited evidence on how analysts use tax information reported in financial statements. To seek a deeper understanding of the mechanisms that underlie analysts' use of tax information in GAAP financial statements, we investigate the association between sell-side equity analysts' forecasts and the change in earnings attributable to a change in ETRs (i.e., the tax change component of earnings). We provide evidence that the persistence of the tax change component of earnings embedded in analysts' forecasts is systematically lower than that implied by our model's time-series properties. Recent research shows that the persistence of the tax change component of earnings is a complex combination of both the persistence of pretax earnings and the persistence of the ETR. We provide evidence that the analysts' underestimation of the tax change component of earnings is primarily attributable to analysts' failure to impound the full implications of the difference between permanent and transitory ETR changes. The results also provide strong evidence that analysts' underreaction to the tax change component of earnings is significantly attenuated when managers voluntarily provide earnings forecasts. Further, analysts' incorporation of tax information into earnings forecasts becomes less biased after Regulation FD. This research answers the call from Graham, Raedy, and Shackelford (2012) for more research into the underlying fundamentals of tax-based information prepared in accordance with GAAP, and the extent to which various financial statement users, including sophisticated market participants such as equity analysts, use tax-based information.
Author: Sangwan Kim
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Despite the central importance of equity analysts as information intermediaries in capital markets, prior studies provide only limited evidence on how analysts use tax information reported in financial statements. To seek a deeper understanding of the mechanisms that underlie analysts' use of tax information in GAAP financial statements, we investigate the association between sell-side equity analysts' forecasts and the change in earnings attributable to a change in ETRs (i.e., the tax change component of earnings). We provide evidence that the persistence of the tax change component of earnings embedded in analysts' forecasts is systematically lower than that implied by our model's time-series properties. Recent research shows that the persistence of the tax change component of earnings is a complex combination of both the persistence of pretax earnings and the persistence of the ETR. We provide evidence that the analysts' underestimation of the tax change component of earnings is primarily attributable to analysts' failure to impound the full implications of the difference between permanent and transitory ETR changes. The results also provide strong evidence that analysts' underreaction to the tax change component of earnings is significantly attenuated when managers voluntarily provide earnings forecasts. Further, analysts' incorporation of tax information into earnings forecasts becomes less biased after Regulation FD. This research answers the call from Graham, Raedy, and Shackelford (2012) for more research into the underlying fundamentals of tax-based information prepared in accordance with GAAP, and the extent to which various financial statement users, including sophisticated market participants such as equity analysts, use tax-based information.
Author: Andrew Schmidt
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
I examine whether earnings generated by changes in effective tax rates (the tax change component) persist and aid in forecasting future earnings. In addition, this study investigates to what extent investors incorporate the forecasting implications of the tax change component of earnings into stock prices. I find that there is a positive, significant association between the tax change component of earnings and future earnings. I use the interim reporting requirements of APB No. 28 (APB 1973) and FASB Interpretation No. 18 (FASB 1977) to further decompose the tax change component into an initial and a revised portion based on the first quarter estimate of the annual ETR. I find that the initial tax change component is more persistent for future earnings than the revised tax change component. These results are consistent with my hypotheses that the initial and revised tax change components have differential persistence and forecasting implications, and dispute the broad notion advanced by prior literature that ETR-related earnings changes are transitory. Results from market tests indicate that the market underweights the forecasting implications of the tax change component and the mispricing appears to be driven by the transitory nature of the revised tax change component.
Author: Kevin C. W. Chen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This study examines analyst forecast revisions after the disclosure of firms' deferred tax adjustments following the U.S. Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 (OBRA), which raised the corporate income tax rate from 34% to 35%. This deferred tax adjustment was a one-time item, and should have had no effect on analyst estimates of future earnings. However, we find that forecast revisions issued after the disclosure of income decreasing deferred tax adjustment were positively related to the amount of the adjustment. The complexity of the deferred tax adjustment and the newness of SFAS 109 (which required the adjustment) may have contributed to the failure of analysts to properly interpret this onetime item when revising their earnings forecasts.
Author: Sangwan Kim
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
This paper investigates the extent to which analysts incorporate tax-based earnings information into their earnings forecasts relative to other earnings information. We find that analysts' mis-reaction to tax-based earnings information is distinct from their mis-reaction to other (non-tax) accounting information, on average. We then show that analysts differ in their mis-estimation of tax and other (non-tax) earnings components only when firms have weak information environments; when firms have strong information environments, analyst forecasts fully incorporate tax-based earnings information and exhibit no difference incorporating tax-based earnings information relative to other accounting information. Our evidence suggests that, on average, forecasting tax-based earnings information is more difficult for analysts relative to forecasting other accounting information. However, access to appropriate information and resources enables analysts to better process tax information. Overall, we contribute to the literature by providing a more complete understanding of the source of analyst tax-related forecast errors.
Author: Andrew Schmidt
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
I examine whether and under what circumstances changes in net income caused by changes in effective tax rates (ETRs) (the tax change component) persist and whether the tax change component aids in forecasting future earnings incremental to aggregate earnings excluding the tax change. I decompose the tax change component of earnings into an initial and revised portion, which I hypothesize to have differential persistence and forecasting implications. Finally, I utilize the Mishkin (1983) procedure to determine if the market recognizes the forecasting implications of the differential persistence of the initial and revised tax change components. My results indicate that the tax change component is negatively associated with future tax changes. I find that the initial tax change component is more persistent for future tax changes than the revised tax change component. Additionally, I find that the initial tax change component is useful in forecasting future earnings, while the revised tax change component is not. These results are consistent with my hypotheses that the initial and revised tax change components have differential persistence and forecasting implications, and dispute the notion that changes in ETRs are transitory. Mishkin (1983) test results indicate that the market underestimates the persistence of the revised tax change component and the mispricing appears to be driven by firms in industries with above-average intra-year variation in the tax change component of earnings.
Author: Andrew Philip Schmidt
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Corporate profits
Languages : en
Pages : 152
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Book Description
Author: Bok Baik
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This paper examines whether analysts' pre-tax income forecasts mitigate the tax expense anomaly documented by Thomas and Zhang (J Account Res 49:791-821, 2011). They find that seasonal changes in quarterly income tax expense are positively related to future returns after controlling for the earnings surprise and conclude that investors underreact to value-relevant information in tax expense. When analysts issue both earnings and pre-tax income forecasts, they implicitly provide a forecast of income tax expense. We posit that this implicit forecast helps investors recognize the persistence of current tax expense surprise for future earnings. Accordingly, we expect that mispricing of tax expense will be less severe for firms with earnings and pre-tax income forecasts. As expected, we find that the presence of pre-tax income forecasts significantly weakens the positive relation between tax expense surprise and future returns, consistent with analysts' implicit forecasts of tax expense mitigating the tax expense anomaly.
Author: Michelle Lee Hanlon
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Corporations
Languages : en
Pages : 130
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Author: Landon M. Mauler
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
I examine whether analysts' tax forecasts are informative to investors and whether analysts' tax forecasts impact firm behavior. Using I/B/E/S data from 2002-2014, I find that investors utilize both analysts' pre- and after-tax earnings forecasts in evaluating firm performance, indicating analysts' tax forecasts are value-relevant. Furthermore, evidence that investors discount earnings management through the income tax expense is limited to firms with tax forecast coverage. In examining the impact of analysts' tax forecasts on firm behavior, I find analysts' tax forecast coverage is positively associated with quantitative and qualitative tax footnote disclosure. The results suggest that analysts' tax forecasts are value-relevant and that analysts' tax coverage impacts firm decisions related to the income tax expense account. This evidence informs academics and practitioners as to the role of analysts' tax forecasts.
Author: Michal Andrle
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484390040
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
This paper presents and discusses the estimates of the present value of corporate profits in the United States from 1984 to 2018. To value the expected income stream, it uses the long-range forecasts of professional forecasters for pre-tax corporate earnings and long-term Treasury note yields, sourced from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey. The appraised value of corporate earnings can point in real time at periods where market prices are deviating from valuations implied by expected earnings and interest rates. Market participants' forecasts seem to interpret most of the earnings fluctuations as permanent, underestimating the cyclical fluctuations The over-reaction to transitory shocks and changes in long-term outlook leads to swings in the valuation, in line with swings in the observed market prices.
