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Author: Baulch, Bob
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 19
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Book Description
Author: Baulch, Bob
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 19
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Baulch, Bob
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 21
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Book Description
This paper has been written for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by IFPRI to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium- erm paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a SAM multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses.
Author: Baulch, Bob
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
This working paper builds on a report which was prepared for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference in November 2020. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by the International Food Policy Research Institute to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium-term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses. We also model the impact of a faster and a slower lifting of restrictions and external shocks during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. With faster easing of restrictions, cumulative GDP gains turn positive by the third quarter of 2021 under the fast recovery scenario and exceed their pre-COVID-19 levels by US$178 million before the end of 2021. However, under the slow recovery scenario, Malawi’s GDP continues to decline until the end of 2020 before recovering during quarters 1 and 4 of 2021. However, this is not sufficient to wipe out the losses in quarters 2 to 4 of 2020, resulting in cumulative losses under the slow recovery scenario of US$332 million over the two years. Relative to the without COVID-19 scenario, US$937 million of GDP is lost under the fast recovery scenario and US$1,447 million under the slow recovery one. As both the development of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic situation in Malawi are highly uncertain at the present time, the results reported in this paper should be regarded as interim estimates, which are subject to revision as the underlying health and economic data change.
Author: Baulch, Bob
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 10
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Book Description
This Report describes the initial results of modeling undertaken by IFPRI to assess the short-run impacts of the COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium-term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020. This analysis has been undertaken in order to inform the policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi and represents a first pass attempt to measure the short-term economic impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economic. It should be noted that, unlike NPC (2020) our estimates of the economic impact of the COVID-19 on the Malawian economy do not extend beyond 2020 and do not try to set a value on loss of life or life-years. They do, however, allow for detailed breakdown of the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on different sectors and sub-sectors of the Malawian economy.
Author: Ambler, Kate
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 7
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Book Description
This note summarizes perceptions of COVID-19 impacts and risks from a panel phone survey of rural households in eight districts in rural Malawi. While the results from the first round conducted in August 2020 were reported in a previous brief, this note will focus on the evolution of indicators from round 1 to round 2, conducted in November 2020. The sample comprises 833 households interviewed in both survey rounds. Two additional follow-up survey rounds are planned for 2021. The survey was originally designed to measure the seasonality of labor activities but was adjusted to assess COVID-19 impacts and perceptions in rural Malawi. Though initial concern of the impact of COVID-19 on Malawi was high at the start of the global pandemic, case numbers stayed relatively low through the end of 2020. Seven-day averages of 50-100 cases during the first survey round had dropped to under 5 in the fourth quarter of the year. Our analysis will examine how people’s perceptions evolved during this period of low infections.
Author: Chimwemwe Magalasi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This study analyses the short-term distributional effects of COVID-19 on household incomes in Malawi. Growth is expected to fall due to the pandemic. The Malawi annual gross domestic product growth rate for 2020 has been revised downwards from 5.5% to 1.9%. According to the government of Malawi, unemployment in Malawi is expected to increase in 2020 compared to 2019 as companies begin to lay-off employees due to both demand and supply shocks. Our study investigates the impact of changes in employment due to the COVID-19 crisis on inequality and poverty using the recently developed tax-benefit microsimulation model for Malawi, MAMOD. In assessing the impact of the job losses, three employment shock scenarios are considered. Our study leverages on the novel High Frequency Phone Survey for COVID-19 that was implemented from June 2020 and the recently released Integrated Household Survey which was collected just before the COVID-19 crisis. We find that the poverty measured by headcount and poverty gap increases because of the COVID-19 outbreak. The pandemic has also worsened inequality as the Gini Coefficient rose. We further find that the corrective measures implemented the Emergency Cash Transfer, were able to subdue the impact of the crisis especially at the bottom of the income distribution.
Author: Ambler, Kate
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 6
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Book Description
Malawi reported its first case of COVID-19 in April and declared a national emergency. Schools, bars and restaurants were closed, international flights suspended, and the economy faced considerable disruptions: quarterly growth projections from July were cut by more than 60% (Saldarriaga Noel et al. 2020). While still concerning, compared to other countries and other parts of the world, the spread of this disease in Malawi has been relatively modest with 5,951 confirmed cases and 184 COVID-19 linked deaths as of November 8, 2020. After accelerating rates of infection in June and July, the rates have decreased over the last two months.1 In response, there has been a partial return to normalcy, marked by easing COVID-19 restrictions and the reopening of schools at the beginning of September, even while the future trajectory of the disease remains unknown.
Author: Leavens, Laura
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 8
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Book Description
This project note discusses findings from a panel phone survey in Malawi in which respondents were asked about their perceptions of the risks and impacts of COVID-19. Previous findings from the first and second rounds of the survey were discussed in two previous project notes. This note focuses on changes in indicators across rounds, using only panel households. The panel comprises households in eight rural districts in Malawi who were interviewed four times between July 2020 and July 2021. This study builds on a survey originally designed to measure seasonal changes in labor activities. However, as the pandemic spread, the survey was modified to include questions about COVID-19’s risks and impacts on their lives.
Author: Ragasa, Catherine
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 16
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Book Description
This report provides a farm-level analysis of the effects of the COVID-19 crisis, 12–15 months in, using a nationally representative rural household survey conducted in June–July 2021. We draw three major observations from the survey. First, farming activities, access to inputs and extension services, production, and sales were largely unaffected by the crisis. There were temporary challenges in accessing inputs during lockdown and mobility restrictions, and input prices and transportation costs increased; however, production and sales volume and value were largely unaffected. Second, although farming was not affected, other nonfarm livelihoods of a large proportion of farmers were negatively affected because of lower demand and fewer buyers. Eighty-two percent of rural households were engaged in various nonfarm livelihoods, and 32 percent reported negative impacts of the crisis on their nonfarm incomes. Third, direct responses from sample households indicate no negative impacts of the crisis on food access and food consumption by most rural households. Comparisons between 2018 and 2021 of various food security indicators show improvements in food access and dietary diversity. Improvements are likely attributable to better harvests overall and greater awareness of the need to eat healthy and nutritious foods to combat COVID-19 and other diseases. Results show overall resilience of rural households and the agriculture sector amid the COVID-19 crisis. Nonetheless, the survey was conducted right after harvest, and the situation needs to be monitored during the lean season.
Author: World Bank
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The COVID-19 pandemic has socio-economic impacts on Malawians and there is need for timely data to monitor these impacts and support response efforts to the pandemic. In May 2020, the National Statistical Office (NSO), with support from the World Bank, launched the High Frequency Phone Survey on COVID-19; a monthly survey of a nationally representative sample of households previously interviewed as part of the Malawi Integrated Household Panel Survey to monitor the economic impact of the pandemic and other shocks. This brief presents the findings from the tenth and eleventh rounds of the Malawi High-Frequency Phone Sur-vey on COVID-19 (HFPS COVID-19) conducted between the 29th of April and the 9th of June 2021.
