After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean PDF Download
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Author: Bertrand Gruss
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498363512
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011—and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decade. This paper analyzes what this turn in the commodity price cycle may imply for output growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. The analysis suggests that growth in the years ahead for the average commodity exporter in the region could be significantly lower than during the commodity boom, even if commodity prices were to remain stable at their current still-high levels. Slower-than-expected growth in China represents a key downside risk. The results caution against trying to offset the current economic slowdown with demand-side stimulus and underscore the need for ambitious structural reforms to secure strong growth over the medium term.
Author: Bertrand Gruss
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498363512
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
After skyrocketing over the past decade, commodity prices have remained stable or eased somewhat since mid-2011—and most projections suggest they are not likely to resume the upward trend observed in the last decade. This paper analyzes what this turn in the commodity price cycle may imply for output growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. The analysis suggests that growth in the years ahead for the average commodity exporter in the region could be significantly lower than during the commodity boom, even if commodity prices were to remain stable at their current still-high levels. Slower-than-expected growth in China represents a key downside risk. The results caution against trying to offset the current economic slowdown with demand-side stimulus and underscore the need for ambitious structural reforms to secure strong growth over the medium term.
Author: Jorge Thompson Araujo
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464806594
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 188
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Book Description
Beyond Commodities shows that Latin America and the Caribbean’s growth performance over the last decade cannot be reduced to the commodity boom: growth-promoting reforms that strengthened financial development, increased trade openness and improved infrastructure development also played a significant role and can continue doing so. Based on the econometric analysis of panel data from the 1970-2010 period for 126 countries, the study shows that, while the commodity boom facilitated growth in most of the region, it did not determine it. Domestic pro-growth policies and the maintenance of a sound macro-fiscal framework played a central role in explaining the region’s good performance during last decade. It also shows that new growth “stars†? such as Panama, Peru, Colombia and the Dominican Republic emerged during this period. In addition, a benchmarking exercise reveals which policy gaps will lead to the highest potential growth-payoffs for each country and helps identify potential trade-offs. Finally, with the worsening of external conditions, the authors conclude that the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean have no choice but to turn their attention to domestic drivers to keep growth going, as the structural reforms agenda remains unfinished.
Author: Norman Loayza
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821360914
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 169
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Book Description
Several countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are suffering severe economic downturns and the success of market-oriented reforms is being called into question. This report seeks to contribute to the debate by examining the nature of economic growth in the region. The aim is threefold: to describe the basic characteristics of growth; explain differences across countries and to forecast changes over the next decade.
Author: Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484326091
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 123
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Book Description
Over the past decades, inequality has risen not just in advanced economies but also in many emerging market and developing economies, becoming one of the key global policy challenges. And throughout the 20th century, Latin America was associated with some of the world’s highest levels of inequality. Yet something interesting happened in the first decade and a half of the 21st century. Latin America was the only region in the World to have experienced significant declines in inequality in that period. Poverty also fell in Latin America, although this was replicated in other regions, and Latin America started from a relatively low base. Starting around 2014, however, and even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, poverty and inequality gains had already slowed in Latin America and, in some cases, gone into reverse. And the COVID-19 shock, which is still playing out, is likely to dramatically worsen short-term poverty and inequality dynamics. Against this background, this departmental paper investigates the link between commodity prices, and poverty and inequality developments in Latin America.
Author: United Nations ECLAC
Publisher: United Nations
ISBN: 9210575253
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 96
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Book Description
This publication highlights a regional slowdown in GDP growth. It argues that the currency depreciation seen in several countries in the region could, if sustained, increase incentives for investment in tradeable sectors other than the regions traditional exports (commodities), while redirecting expenditure to ease pressure on the current account. Growth-supporting industrial, trade, environmental, social and labour policies that take into account the needs of small and medium-sized enterprises, could help lessen the regions structural heterogeneity. Growth combined with greater equality would thus gain economic and social sustainability, with greater reliance from investment and exports than before. It is argued that this combination would be aided by social covenants for investment.
Author: Emily Sinnott
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 9780821384824
Category : BUSINESS & ECONOMICS
Languages : en
Pages : 82
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Book Description
"The question of how to treat commodity production and how to manage recurrent cycles of booms and busts has always been a challenge for policymakers in commodity-dependent countries, including many in the LAC region. These challenges have led to allegations of a "commodity curse'' that retards development in these countries, but as of yet, there is no consensus as to whether such a curse exists, and if so, how can negative effects be minimized. This book contributes to this debate. Much of the report is focused on an examination of specific channels through which commodity dependence may affect the economic and institutional development of countries. This includes broadly 4 sets of concerns: one set dealing with the direct economic effects of commodity dependence and the implications for long-term growth; one dealing with the interactions between commodity production and the rents it generates on the one hand, and a country's institutions on the other; a third dealing with the macroeconomic challenges of managing the volatility of revenue flows, including the distributional implications at the household level posed by cyclicality of social spending; and a final set associated with potential negative environmental and social impacts. The book finds that some commonly accepted negative effects of dependence on natural resources are largely myths, while some are realities. But all can be managed, and the book draws on the best available information in existing literature as well as original analysis to provide practical advice on how to do so. It also presents descriptive facts and analysis of the impacts in LAC of the recent commodity boom, helping the reader understand the implications for the region's development and policies. It should be of great interest to policy-makers and analysts, as well as laypersons interested in the economics of commodity markets and their role in economic development."
Author: Inter American Development Bank
Publisher: Inter-American Development Bank
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 75
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Book Description
The aftermath of the global financial crisis has reshaped world growth and demand patterns, leading to a two-speed recovery, with slow growth in industrial countries and fast growth in emerging markets. This new global scenario is defining a constellation of global macroeconomic conditions that has very different implications for subsets of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. The report conveys three key messages: first, in this new global economic environment, key structural characteristics of Latin American and Caribbean countries are defining two quite different regional clusters in terms of opportunities and challenges ahead. Second, substantial changes in trade and capital flow patterns, as well as in the international financial architecture, are already taking place and will impact the regional clusters in different ways. Third, economic policy design will have to accommodate these differences in order to ensure widespread and stable growth.
Author: Ms.Dora M. Iakova
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484301544
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 270
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Book Description
Over the past fifteen years countries in Latin America made tremendous progress in strengthening their economies and improving living standards. Although output fell temporarily during the global financial crisis, most economies staged a rapid recovery. However, economic activity across the region has been cooling off and the region is facing a more challenging period ahead. This book argues that Latin America can rise to the challenge, and policymakers in the region are already implementing reforms in education, energy, and other sectors. More is needed, and more is possible, in Latin America’s quest to continue to improve living standards.
Author: André A. Hofman
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 344
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Book Description
Hofman, a researcher with the Chile-based Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, uses growth accounting methods and previously unavailable long-term series data to assess the economic performance of the region during the century from a comparative and historical perspective. In particular he compares Latin American economies to those of advanced capitalist economies, to newly industrialized economies, and to Spain and Portugal because of the historical ties. He looks at the reasons for the poor or negative growth during the 1980s and the apparent recovery in the 1990s and at such problems as debt, income inequality, high inflation, cyclical instability, and political and policy instability. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475586027
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
This cluster report takes stock of and explores opportunities for trade integration in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Drawing on a set of 12 analytical studies that will be issued as working papers, the report examines the determinants of trade, explores the potential to enhance LAC’s trade integration, and assesses the associated economic and social effects. To deepen understanding of the region’s policy options and trade strategies, the report also incorporates the views of LAC country authorities based on responses to a survey. This provides an opportunity to examine the alignment of recommendations based on the analytical findings with the region’s current trade policy priorities, with the caveat that the survey was conducted between late 2015 and mid-2016, prior to the most recent developments in the global trade landscape.
