Accuracy of Population Projection Methods at the U.S. Census Bureau PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Accuracy of Population Projection Methods at the U.S. Census Bureau PDF full book. Access full book title Accuracy of Population Projection Methods at the U.S. Census Bureau by . Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 74
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 74
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Stanley K. Smith
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9400775512
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 417
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
Author: Stanley K. Smith
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0306473720
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 433
Get Book Here
Book Description
The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309069904
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 369
Get Book Here
Book Description
Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Demographic surveys
Languages : en
Pages : 90
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309172020
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 368
Get Book Here
Book Description
Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
Author: Jacob S. Siegel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Population forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 18
Get Book Here
Book Description
The history of the official U.S. projections of population and households in recent decades is briefly reviewed, with particular attention to projections. The introduction of the cohort-component procedure in the 1930's opened the way for separate analysis of the trend of the components of births, deaths, and net immigration in connection with making population projections. As a further development, the period-fertility method of projecting births gave way in the 1960's to the cohort-fertility method. Consideration is now being given to various methods involving parity-progression procedures. Some alternative methods and problems of measuring the accuracy of population projections are then considered. The percent "error" in the projected population growth, by components and age, and the range from high to low expressed as a percent should also be examined in addition to the percent "error" in the total population. However accuracy is measured, the projections made in the 1930's and 1940's were often wide of the mark, and those made in the 1950's and 1960's failed to anticipate the sharp changes which occurred, even though the actual figures usually fell within the range projected. Elaboration of projection methodology has not resulted in any great increase in the precision of the projections, largely because birth rates have fluctuated widely, and the fluctuations have proven difficult, if not impossible, to predict. The projections of households have had a roughly similar history, and the methods and problems of evaluation are somewhat similar. Their development has been characterized by the introduction of alternative and changing "headship" rates and increasing disaggregation of the data and procedures. The paper concludes with some generalizations based on U.S. experience. Although refinement of methods may contribute little to accuracy, accuracy is only one aspect of the usefulness of projections. The need for conditional projections and their analytical usefulness are such that there is no question that we should confidently continue to make them.
Author: John F. Long
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 37
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Henry Van Beuren Stanbery
Publisher: U.S. Government Printing Office
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 98
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: William P. O'Hare
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030109739
Category : Census undercounts
Languages : en
Pages : 167
Get Book Here
Book Description
This open access book describes the differences in US census coverage, also referred to as “differential undercount”, by showing which groups have the highest net undercounts and which groups have the greatest undercount differentials, and discusses why such undercounts occur. In addition to focusing on measuring census coverage for several demographic characteristics, including age, gender, race, Hispanic origin status, and tenure, it also considers several of the main hard-to-count populations, such as immigrants, the homeless, the LBGT community, children in foster care, and the disabled. However, given the dearth of accurate undercount data for these groups, they are covered less comprehensively than those demographic groups for which there is reliable undercount data from the Census Bureau. This book is of interest to demographers, statisticians, survey methodologists, and all those interested in census coverage.
