A Note on Fitting Markov Operator Credit Risk Models PDF Download
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Author: Harley Thompson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 19
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Book Description
We estimate a Markov operator credit migration model in which credit conditions vary through time in response to underlying macroeconomic factors. Emphasis is given to practical issues arising when fitting the model to a portfolio of risk rated credits, including the treatment of incomplete data, accounting for portfolio regeneration and aggregation issues.
Author: Harley Thompson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 19
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Book Description
We estimate a Markov operator credit migration model in which credit conditions vary through time in response to underlying macroeconomic factors. Emphasis is given to practical issues arising when fitting the model to a portfolio of risk rated credits, including the treatment of incomplete data, accounting for portfolio regeneration and aggregation issues.
Author: Guglielmo D'Amico
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119415128
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 265
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Book Description
Credit risk is one of the most important contemporary problems for banks and insurance companies. Indeed, for banks, more than forty percent of the equities are necessary to cover this risk. Though this problem is studied by large rating agencies with substantial economic, social and financial tools, building stochastic models is nevertheless necessary to complete this descriptive orientation. This book presents a complete presentation of such a category of models using homogeneous and non-homogeneous semi-Markov processes developed by the authors in several recent papers. This approach provides a good method of evaluating the default risk and the classical VaR indicators used for Solvency II and Basel III governance rules. This book is the first to present a complete semi-Markov treatment of credit risk while also insisting on the practical use of the models presented here, including numerical aspects, so that this book is not only useful for scientific research but also to managers working in this field for banks, insurance companies, pension funds and other financial institutions.
Author: Tomasz R. Bielecki
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3662048213
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 517
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Book Description
The motivation for the mathematical modeling studied in this text on developments in credit risk research is the bridging of the gap between mathematical theory of credit risk and the financial practice. Mathematical developments are covered thoroughly and give the structural and reduced-form approaches to credit risk modeling. Included is a detailed study of various arbitrage-free models of default term structures with several rating grades.
Author: Christian Bluhm
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1584889934
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 386
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Book Description
Contains Nearly 100 Pages of New MaterialThe recent financial crisis has shown that credit risk in particular and finance in general remain important fields for the application of mathematical concepts to real-life situations. While continuing to focus on common mathematical approaches to model credit portfolios, Introduction to Credit Risk Modelin
Author: Alfredo Camacho Valle
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
In recent times, credit risk analysis has grown to become one of the most important problems dealt with in the mathematical finance literature. Fundamentally, the problem deals with estimating the probability that an obligor defaults on their debt in a certain time. To obtain such a probability, several methods have been developed which are regulated by the Basel Accord. This establishes a legal framework for dealing with credit and market risks, and empowers banks to perform their own methodologies according to their interests under certain criteria. Credit risk analysis is founded on the rating system, which is an assessment of the capability of an obligor to make its payments in full and on time, in order to estimate risks and make the investor decisions easier. Credit risk models can be classified into several different categories. In structural form models (SFM), that are founded on the Black & Scholes theory for option pricing and the Merton model, it is assumed that default occurs if a firm's market value is lower than a threshold, most often its liabilities. The problem is that this is clearly is an unrealistic assumption. The factors models (FM) attempt to predict the random default time by assuming a hazard rate based on latent exogenous and endogenous variables. Reduced form models (RFM) mainly focus on the accuracy of the probability of default (PD), to such an extent that it is given more importance than an intuitive economical interpretation. Portfolio reduced form models (PRFM) belong to the RFM family, and were developed to overcome the SFM's difficulties. Most of these models are based on the assumption of having an underlying Markovian process, either in discrete or continuous time. For a discrete process, the main information is containted in a transition matrix, from which we obtain migration probabilities. However, according to previous analysis, it has been found that this approach contains embedding problems. The continuous time Markov process (CTMP) has its main information contained in a matrix Q of constant instantaneous transition rates between states. Both approaches assume that the future depends only on the present, though previous empirical analysis has proved that the probability of changing rating depends on the time a firm maintains the same rating. In order to face this difficulty we approach the PD with the continuous time semi-Markov process (CTSMP), which relaxes the exponential waiting time distribution assumption of the Markovian analogue. In this work we have relaxed the constant transition rate assumption and assumed that it depends on the residence time, thus we have derived CTSMP forward integral and differential equations respectively and the corresponding equations for the particular cases of exponential, gamma and power law waiting time distributions, we have also obtained a numerical solution of the migration probability by the Monte Carlo Method and compared the results with the Markovian models in discrete and continuous time respectively, and the discrete time semi-Markov process. We have focused on firms from U.S.A. and Canada classified as financial sector according to Global Industry Classification Standard and we have concluded that the gamma and Weibull distribution are the best adjustment models.
Author: Matthew T. Jones
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451862386
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 27
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Book Description
This paper outlines a way to estimate transition matrices for use in credit risk modeling with a decades-old methodology that uses aggregate proportions data. This methodology is ideal for credit-risk applications where there is a paucity of data on changes in credit quality, especially at an aggregate level. Using a generalized least squares variant of the methodology, this paper provides estimates of transition matrices for the United States using both nonperforming loan data and interest coverage data. The methodology can be employed to condition the matrices on economic fundamentals and provide separate transition matrices for expansions and contractions, for example. The transition matrices can also be used as an input into other credit-risk models that use transition matrices as a basic building block.
Author: Tang Li
Publisher: Open Dissertation Press
ISBN: 9781361479735
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This dissertation, "Markov Chain Models for Re-manufacturing Systems and Credit Risk Management" by Tang, Li, 李唐, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. DOI: 10.5353/th_b4020370 Subjects: Remanufacturing - Mathematical models Credit - Mathematical models Risk management - Mathematical models Markov processes
Author: Jacques Janssen
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0387707301
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 441
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Book Description
Everyone working in related fields from applied mathematicians to statisticians to actuaries and operations researchers will find this a brilliantly useful practical text. The book presents applications of semi-Markov processes in finance, insurance and reliability, using real-life problems as examples. After a presentation of the main probabilistic tools necessary for understanding of the book, the authors show how to apply semi-Markov processes in finance, starting from the axiomatic definition and continuing eventually to the most advanced financial tools.
Author: Robert J. Elliott
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0387943641
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 374
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Book Description
The authors begin with discrete time and discrete state spaces. From there, they proceed to cover continuous time, and progress from linear models to nonlinear models, and from completely known models to only partially known models.
Author: Rogemar S. Mamon
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0387711635
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 203
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Book Description
A number of methodologies have been employed to provide decision making solutions globalized markets. Hidden Markov Models in Finance offers the first systematic application of these methods to specialized financial problems: option pricing, credit risk modeling, volatility estimation and more. The book provides tools for sorting through turbulence, volatility, emotion, chaotic events – the random "noise" of financial markets – to analyze core components.
