A Further Investigation of the Lead-Lag Relationship in Returns and Volatility Between the Spot Market and Stock Index Futures PDF Download
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Author: Sotirios Karagiannis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
This paper investigates the lead-lag relationship in daily returns and volatilities between price movements of FTSE/ASE-20 futures and the underlying FTSE/ASE-20 cash index of the Athens Stock Exchange. The results suggest that there is a bidirectional causality between spot and futures returns, rejecting the usual result of futures leading spot market. However, spot market seems to play a more important role in price discovery. Volatility spillovers across the two markets are examined by using a bivariate EGARCH(1,1) model. This model is found to capture all the volatility dynamics. The results indicate that the transmission of volatility is bidirectional. Any piece of information that is released by the cash market has an effect on futures market volatility, and vice versa. Nevertheless, the volatility spillover from spot to futures market is slightly stronger than in the reverse direction.
Author: Sotirios Karagiannis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
This paper investigates the lead-lag relationship in daily returns and volatilities between price movements of FTSE/ASE-20 futures and the underlying FTSE/ASE-20 cash index of the Athens Stock Exchange. The results suggest that there is a bidirectional causality between spot and futures returns, rejecting the usual result of futures leading spot market. However, spot market seems to play a more important role in price discovery. Volatility spillovers across the two markets are examined by using a bivariate EGARCH(1,1) model. This model is found to capture all the volatility dynamics. The results indicate that the transmission of volatility is bidirectional. Any piece of information that is released by the cash market has an effect on futures market volatility, and vice versa. Nevertheless, the volatility spillover from spot to futures market is slightly stronger than in the reverse direction.
Author: Ilias Visvikis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
This paper investigates the lead-lag relationship in daily returns and volatilities between price movements of stock index futures and the underlying cash index in the FTSE/ASE-20 and FTSE/ASE Mid-40 markets of the Athens Stock Exchange. Empirical results confirm previous findings that there is a large contemporaneous relation, together with asymmetric lead-lag behaviour between the cash and futures markets. There is evidence that the futures lead the cash index returns, by responding more rapidly to economic events than stock prices. This asymmetric lead-lag relation can be attributed to the predictive power of futures returns, supporting the price discovery hypothesis that new market information is disseminated faster in the futures market compared to the stock market. After examining whether daily volatility in futures prices has systematically lead daily volatility in the cash index, the results provide a weak indication that cash volatility spills some information in the futures market volatility in the FTSE/ASE-20 market. In the FTSE/ASE Mid-40 market, the results indicate that there are robust volatility spillovers from the futures to the cash market, which imply that the futures market can be used as a price discovery vehicle.
Author: Rong-Yuan Qin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 21
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Book Description
This empirical study examines the short-run lead-lag relationship between the VKOSPI index futures and its underlying spot index and KOSPI index using daily data from September 17, 2014 to May 2017. We used the unit root test, Johansen-Juselius cointegration test, Granger causality analysis, impulse response function analysis, and variance decomposition analysis to test the hypothesis that the futures market with no market frictions leads the spot market in this analysis. The results of these analyses using level variables show that there is a bi-directional lead-lag relationship between the VKOSPI futures and VKOSPI index, but in the analysis using first-difference variables, there is only a unidirectional lead-lag relationship form VKOSPI index to VKOSPI futures. This means that the VKOSPI spot market is more efficient than the futures market. Also, there are no lead-lag relationship from VKOSPI futures or VKOSPI index to KOSPI index. It is inconsistent with the main expected hypothesis in our study and the conclusions of previous studies which argue that the VIX futures lead the VIX index and S&P 500 index. This results are related to a lack of liquidity of VKOSPI futures contracts in the Korean derivatives market. Because generally, the Korean institutional investors prefer option trading, to hedge market risk rather than VKOSPI futures. Change in the price of the option will result in the change in the VKOSPI index and subsequently the mechanism that alters the VKOSPI futures or the KOSPI index.
Author: Ersan Ersoy
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 18
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Book Description
In perfectly frictionless and rational markets, spot markets and futures markets should simultaneously reflect new information. However, due to market imperfections, one of these markets may reflect information faster than the other and therefore may lead to the other. This study examines the lead-lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures, in terms of both price and volatility, by using 5 minute data over 2007-2010 period. The findings of this study indicate that a stable long-term relationship between Turkish stock index and stock index futures exists, however stock index futures do not lead stock index and there is a two way interaction between them. Therefore either of the markets is dominant over the other one in the price formation process.
Author: Vijay Kumar
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
ISBN: 9783659144936
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 92
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Book Description
Indian capital markets have been witnessed a major transformation and structural changes over the past one decade as a result of ongoing financial sector reforms initiated by the Government. This study investigated the lead lag relationship between the spot and futures equity market in India, both in terms of return and volatility, examines the lead lag relationship between the spot and futures markets for asymmetric information and also incorporate price co-integration relationship between spot and futures markets in the lead lag relationship analysis. We employed data in the study consists of intraday price histories from JAN 2001 to November 2005 for the nearby contract of nifty index futures and Index.We find a strong contemporaneous relationship between futures and cash prices, along with some significant evidence that futures markets leads spot market during times of high volatility. Consequently, reactions in futures markets are faster, and movements in futures prices lead spot price fluctuations.
Author: Sol Kim
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
This study investigates whether a lead-lag relationship exists between the returns and the moments of the implied risk-neutral density (RND) in Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) 200 spot, futures, and options markets. The empirical analysis suggests that although there is a bi-directional lead-lag relationship between the returns and the implied moments, the skewness and kurtosis of the implied RND Granger-cause the spot and futures returns more strongly than the returns do. In contrast, the implied volatility is shown to Granger-cause the returns less strongly than the returns do. In addition, this study shows that the lead-lag relationship strengthens when the spot market is exceptionally bullish or bearish.
Author: Nikhil Rastogi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The paper explores the lead-lag relationship between the variables of order imbalance and return in futures and spot markets. Order imbalance is defined as the difference between buyer and seller initiated trades. Using tick test, the trades have been classified as buyer and seller initiated. The paper finds positive correlation between the variables of order imbalance in the futures market and the returns in the spot market. This relationship is further explored using a VAR framework for daily as well as a shorter interval of 120 min. The results reveal that even after controlling for lagged futures and spot returns, the futures market imbalance has a significant effect on spot market returns.
Author: Rajni Kant Rajhans
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 8
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Book Description
In developed financial markets, there is no dearth of literature on relationship between spot and future market. India, in the year 2000 introduced derivative market to provide risk mitigation mechanism to market participants. The present study concluded that there is no short-run relationship between Nifty 50 Index and Nifty 50 Futures Index while there is a long-run relationship between the two. The combined analysis of outputs of Granger Causality and Johansen co-integration provided a more rational justification and can be interpreted that possibly at a time of high volatile market when price discovery is not more on rational basis but rather on other spill-over, a short-run lead-lag relationship could not be observed between spot stock index and futures index. However, in long-run the volatility dies away and market returns back to fundamental factors and hence, there is evidence of long-run relationship between spot stock index and futures index.
Author: Joseph K. W. Fung
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We examine the lead-lag relation between index futures and the underlying index under three types of short-selling restrictions on stocks in Hong Kong. Our results indicate that lifting short-selling restrictions can enhance the informational efficiency of the stock market relative to the index futures. We also investigate the impact of two market characteristics, market conditions and the magnitude of mispricing on the lead-lag relations under different short-selling regimes. Our findings suggest that if we remove restrictions, the contemporaneous price relation between the futures and cash markets becomes stronger particularly in the falling market and when the cash market is relatively overpriced.
Author: Dr. T. Peddanna
Publisher: Readworthy
ISBN: 9388121392
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 154
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Book Description
"Generally, the fund managers prefer to include Nifty-listed securities in their portfolio, because they are the leading stocks of the nation, using these companies constructed 11 sectors of stock indices. On the whole, the analysis of 12-year data starting from April 2002 to March 2014 established two phases of sectoral indices of Nifty; they are pre and post-recession periods in the light of sub-prime financial crisis that cropped up across the globe during 2008-09. As this study revealed sector-wise return exposure under different economic conditions, it helps investors to diversify their funds to various sectors which give average return to their portfolios and at lower risk element. However, this study is helped in understanding the risk-return relationship between different sectors of Nifty, as well as ARCH and GARCH models to estimate the volatility in the near future in great detail. The direction of the Nifty index is mainly determined by a few sectors in the long run like Bank, Pharma and Capital Goods indices. Finally, this study is enabled the investors to understand the risk and returns of sectoral indices of Nifty to make effective portfolio decisions under different economic conditions to sustain the portfolio with the same objectives till its tenure. This book is useful for Portfolio Managers, Fund Managers, Investment Managers and Policy makers, Academicians, Research scholars; Post graduate students and other commerce and Management students those working on Returns and volatility of stock market indices and securities."
