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Author: Mr.Serhan Cevik
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513526340
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 16
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Book Description
The widespread availability of internet search data is a new source of high-frequency information that can potentially improve the precision of macroeconomic forecasting, especially in areas with data constraints. This paper investigates whether travel-related online search queries enhance accuracy in the forecasting of tourist arrivals to The Bahamas from the U.S. The results indicate that the forecast model incorporating internet search data provides additional information about tourist flows over a univariate approach using the traditional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and multivariate models with macroeconomic indicators. The Google Trends-augmented model improves predictability of tourist arrivals by about 30 percent compared to the benchmark ARIMA model and more than 20 percent compared to the model extended only with income and relative prices.
Author: Mr.Serhan Cevik
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513526340
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 16
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Book Description
The widespread availability of internet search data is a new source of high-frequency information that can potentially improve the precision of macroeconomic forecasting, especially in areas with data constraints. This paper investigates whether travel-related online search queries enhance accuracy in the forecasting of tourist arrivals to The Bahamas from the U.S. The results indicate that the forecast model incorporating internet search data provides additional information about tourist flows over a univariate approach using the traditional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and multivariate models with macroeconomic indicators. The Google Trends-augmented model improves predictability of tourist arrivals by about 30 percent compared to the benchmark ARIMA model and more than 20 percent compared to the model extended only with income and relative prices.
Author: Olga Bespalova
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
This paper improves short-term forecasting models of monthly tourism arrivals by estimating and evaluating a time-series model with exogenous regressors (ARIMA-X) using a case of Aruba, a small open tourism-dependent economy. Given importance of the US market for Aruba, it investigates informational value of Google Searches originating in the USA, flight capacity utilization on the US air-carriers, and per capita demand of the US consumers, given the volatility index in stock markets (VIX). It yields several insights. First, flight capacity is the best variable to account for the travel restrictions during the pandemic. Second, US real personal consumption expenditure becomes a more significnat predictor than income as the former better captured impact of the COVID-19 restrictions on the consumers’ behavior, while income boosted by the pandemic fiscal support was not fully directed to spending. Third, intercept correction improves the model in the estimation period. Finally, the pandemic changed econometric relationships between the tourism arrivals and their main determinants, and accuracy of the forecast models. Going forward, the analysts should re-estimate the models. Out-of-sample forecasts with 5 percent confidence intervals are produced for 18 months ahead.
Author: Douglas Frechtling
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 113640242X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 279
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Book Description
'Forecasting tourism demand' is a text that no tourism professional can afford to be without. The tourism industry has experienced an overwhelming boom over recent years, and being able to predict future trends as accurately as possible is vital in the struggle to stay one step ahead of the competition. Building on the success of 'Practical Tourism Forecasting' this text looks at 13 methods of forecasting and with a user friendly style, 'Forecasting Tourism Demand' guides the reader through each method, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses and explaining how it can be applied to the tourism industry. 'Forecasting Tourism Demand' employs charts and tables to explain how to: * plan a forecasting project * analyse time series and other information * select the appropriate forecasting model * use the model for forecasting and evaluate its results Ideal for marketing managers and strategic planners in business, transportation planners and economic policy makers in government who must project demand for their products among tourists. Executives who rely on forecasts prepared by others will find it invaluable in assisting them to evaluate the validity and reliability of predictions and forecasts. Those engaged in analysing business trends will find it useful in surveying the future of what has been called the largest industry in the world.
Author: Vladimir Kuzin
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783865585097
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Asian Development Bank
Publisher: Asian Development Bank
ISBN: 9292695037
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 150
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Book Description
This report identifies well-established sectors needing transformation or improvement (tourism, agro-processing, and garments), along with evolving sectors with high potential for growth (electronics and digital trade) as Southeast Asian countries hammer out policies to boost post-COVID-19 recovery and secure a greener future. The first in a four-part series, the report looks at the pandemic’s impact on these five sectors across Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines and Thailand. It identifies reforms and strategies to help core industries recover and grow over the medium term. This report underscores how deepening regional cooperation can help policy makers boost their countries’ COVID-19 recovery and build more resilient economies and societies.
Author: Omer Faruk Akbal
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.
Author: Ms.Manuela Goretti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513561901
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 115
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Book Description
This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513541676
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 88
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Book Description
This Selected Issues paper focuses on background, challenges, and policy options in Panama. Panama stands at a crossroad between taking the leap to become an advanced economy or getting stuck in the middle-income trap. The beginning of a new administration provides a window of opportunity to initiate and implement ambitious reforms. This note takes stock of fiscal issues in Panama and proposes policy options. The new administration’s fiscal agenda should feature a comprehensive reform of tax and customs administrations, a review of tax incentives and exemptions and consider steps toward a broader tax policy reform. Efforts to further strengthen the fiscal framework with the appointment of the members of the Fiscal Council should continue going forward. Panama should adopt best practice fiscal accounting and reporting methods. A comprehensive assessment and management of fiscal risks is necessary to create buffers and safeguard public finances given fiscal policy’s exclusive stabilization role.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Tourism
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
Author: Pedro Sostre
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 047016977X
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 386
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Book Description
Performing your first Web site analysis just got a whole lot easier. Web Analytics For Dummies offers everything you need to know to nail down and pump up the ROI on your Web presence. It explains how to get the stats you need, then helps you analyze and apply that information to improve traffic and click-through rate on your Web site. You’ll discover: What to expect from Web analytics Definitions of key Web analytics terms Help in choosing the right analytics approach How to collect key data and apply it to site design or marketing Techniques for distinguishing human users from bots Tips on using Google and other free analytics tools Advice on choosing pay and subscription services A detailed and accurate analysis is crucial the success of your Web site. Web Analytics For Dummies helps you get it right the first time—and every time.
