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Author: Mr. Marco Gross
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
We present an analysis of the sensitivity of household mortgage probabilities of default (PDs) and loss given default (LGDs) on unemployment rates, house price growth, interest rates, and other drivers. A structural micro-macro simulation model is used to that end. It is anchored in the balance sheets and income-expense flow data from about 95,000 households and 230,000 household members from 21 EU countries and the U.S. We present country-specific nonlinear regressions based on the structural model simulation-implied relation between PDs and LGDs and their drivers. These can be used for macro scenario-conditional forecasting, without requiring the conduct of the micro simulation. We also present a policy counterfactual analysis of the responsiveness of mortgage PDs, LGDs, and bank capitalization conditional on adverse scenarios related to the COVID-19 pandemic across all countries. The economics of debt moratoria and guarantees are discussed against the background of the model-based analysis.
Author: Mr. Marco Gross
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
We present an analysis of the sensitivity of household mortgage probabilities of default (PDs) and loss given default (LGDs) on unemployment rates, house price growth, interest rates, and other drivers. A structural micro-macro simulation model is used to that end. It is anchored in the balance sheets and income-expense flow data from about 95,000 households and 230,000 household members from 21 EU countries and the U.S. We present country-specific nonlinear regressions based on the structural model simulation-implied relation between PDs and LGDs and their drivers. These can be used for macro scenario-conditional forecasting, without requiring the conduct of the micro simulation. We also present a policy counterfactual analysis of the responsiveness of mortgage PDs, LGDs, and bank capitalization conditional on adverse scenarios related to the COVID-19 pandemic across all countries. The economics of debt moratoria and guarantees are discussed against the background of the model-based analysis.
Author: Miriam Anderson
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789089521989
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 460
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Book Description
How has European Private Law responded to the property and mortgage markets crisis? And in what way is this reaction likely to model domestic systems? The financial and economic crisis that marked the beginning of the century has had a devastating effect on the property and mortgage markets in many Member States of the European Union. Despite this, the European legislator took its time to respond. This book analyzes the impact of the Mortgage Credit Directive (Directive 2014/17) in twelve different jurisdictions: Belgium, England, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Malta, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, and Spain. The reports show how in some instances only certain products (such as foreign currency loans) or practices (irresponsible lending, homeownership promoting policies, the use of unfair terms) were factors that triggered the property crash; in other cases; the system completely failed to address an exceptional situation; and, finally, how in some instances prudent lending explained why the market was virtually not hit at all. This book aims to find out whether the two goals of Directive 2014/17 (financial sector stability and enhanced consumer protection) can be achieved in light of its provisions and of the transposition carried out by the different Member States, and whether the changes it introduces have a significant impact in the jurisdictions considered here. Some systems are already showing signs of yet another property bubble. There is room for hope: perhaps we have learned from the past, perhaps the Directive is a step forward, but more importantly this book shows that we can learn from each other. [Subject: European Law, Private Law, Property Law]
Author: Rima Turk-Ariss
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484302958
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
Concerns about excessive variability in bank risk weights have prompted their review by regulators. This paper provides prima facie evidence on the extent of risk weight heterogeneity across broad asset classes and by country of counterparty for major banks in the European Union using internal models. It also finds that corporate risk weights are sensitive to the riskiness of an average representative firm, but not to a market indicator of a firm’s probablity of default. Under plausible yet severe hypothetical scenarios for harmonized risk weights, counterfactual capital ratios would decline significantly for some banks, but they would not experience a shortfall relative to Basel III’s minimum requirements. This, however, does not preclude falling short of meeting additional national supervisory capital requirements.
Author: International Monetary Fund Staff
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145197941X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 210
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Book Description
The events of the past six months have demonstrated the fragility of the global financial system and raised fundamental questions about the effectiveness of the response by private and public sector institutions. the report assesses the vulnerabilities that the system is facing and offers tentative conclusions and policy lessons. the report reflects information available up to March 21, 2008.
Author: Leonardo Martinez-Diaz
Publisher: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
ISBN: 057874841X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 196
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Book Description
This publication serves as a roadmap for exploring and managing climate risk in the U.S. financial system. It is the first major climate publication by a U.S. financial regulator. The central message is that U.S. financial regulators must recognize that climate change poses serious emerging risks to the U.S. financial system, and they should move urgently and decisively to measure, understand, and address these risks. Achieving this goal calls for strengthening regulators’ capabilities, expertise, and data and tools to better monitor, analyze, and quantify climate risks. It calls for working closely with the private sector to ensure that financial institutions and market participants do the same. And it calls for policy and regulatory choices that are flexible, open-ended, and adaptable to new information about climate change and its risks, based on close and iterative dialogue with the private sector. At the same time, the financial community should not simply be reactive—it should provide solutions. Regulators should recognize that the financial system can itself be a catalyst for investments that accelerate economic resilience and the transition to a net-zero emissions economy. Financial innovations, in the form of new financial products, services, and technologies, can help the U.S. economy better manage climate risk and help channel more capital into technologies essential for the transition. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5247742
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475564562
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 126
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Book Description
Financial stability has continued to improve since the October 2016 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR). Economic activity has gained momentum, as outlined in the April 2017 World Economic Outlook (WEO), amid broadly accommodative monetary and financial conditions, spurring hopes for reflation. Chapter 2 analyzes the potential long-term impact of a scenario of sustained low growth and low real and nominal rates for the business models of financial institutions and the products offered by the financial sector. Chapter 3 examines whether countries still retain influence over their domestic financial conditions in a globally integrated financial system. The chapter develops financial conditions indices that make it possible to compare a large set of advanced and emerging market economies.
Author: Mohamed Belkhir
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
This paper investigates macroprudential policy effects on bank systemic risk and the role of inflation targeting in such effects. Using bank-level data for 45 countries comprising various monetary and exchange rate regimes, our regime-dependent dynamic panel regression results point to complementarities between monetary and macroprudential policies. We find that the tightening of most macroprudential tools—including DSTI and LTV limits, and capital requirements—reduces bank systemic risk further under inflation targeting. Our findings lend credence to the view that inflation targeting strengthens macroprudential policy roles in mitigating financial stability risks.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 104
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Book Description
The financial sector weathered COVID relatively well on the back of high pre-crisis capital and liquidity buffers, strong public and private sector balance sheets, and unprecedented public and ECB support. Immediate risks to Germany’s financial stability of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine appear to be manageable due to the banks’ limited direct exposures to Russia. However, risks associated with the economic fallout could impact some individual financial institutions, non-performing loans, and house prices. Real GDP growth was projected to regain momentum from mid-2022 onwards, but the war could hinder the recovery through supply constraints, higher-than-expected above-target inflation (with higher energy prices and supply constraints), a tightening of financial conditions, and shifts in investors’ confidence.
Author: United States. Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission
Publisher: Public Affairs
ISBN: 1610390415
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 578
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Book Description
Examines the causes of the financial crisis that began in 2008 and reveals the weaknesses found in financial regulation, excessive borrowing, and breaches in accountability.
Author: Gene Amromin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We investigate the characteristics and the default behavior of households who take out complex mortgages. Unlike traditional fixed rate or adjustable rate mortgages, complex mortgages are not fully amortizing and enable households to postpone loan repayment. We find that complex mortgages are used by sophisticated households with high income levels and prime credit scores, in contrast to the low income population targeted by subprime mortgages. Complex mortgage borrowers have significantly higher delinquency rates than traditional mortgage borrowers even after controlling for leverage, payment resets, and other household and loan characteristics. The difference in the delinquency rates between complex and traditional borrowers increases with measures of financial sophistication and leverage, suggesting that complex borrowers are more strategic in their default decisions than traditional borrowers.
