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Author: Campbell R. Harvey
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Assets (Accounting)
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
This paper characterizes the forces that determine time-variation in expected international asset returns. We offer a number of innovations. By using the latent factor technique, we do not have to prespecify the sources of risk. We solve for the latent premiums and characterize their time-variation. We find evidence that the first factor premium resembles the expected return on the world market portfolio. However, the inclusion of this premium alone is not sufficient to explain the conditional variation in the returns. We find evidence of a second factor premium which is related to foreign exchange risk. Our sample includes new data on both international industry portfolios and international fixed income portfolios. We find that the two latent factor model performs better in explaining the conditional variation in asset returns than a prespecified two factor model. Finally, we show that differences in the risk loadings are important in accounting for the cross-sectional variation in the international returns.
Author: Campbell R. Harvey
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Assets (Accounting)
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
This paper characterizes the forces that determine time-variation in expected international asset returns. We offer a number of innovations. By using the latent factor technique, we do not have to prespecify the sources of risk. We solve for the latent premiums and characterize their time-variation. We find evidence that the first factor premium resembles the expected return on the world market portfolio. However, the inclusion of this premium alone is not sufficient to explain the conditional variation in the returns. We find evidence of a second factor premium which is related to foreign exchange risk. Our sample includes new data on both international industry portfolios and international fixed income portfolios. We find that the two latent factor model performs better in explaining the conditional variation in asset returns than a prespecified two factor model. Finally, we show that differences in the risk loadings are important in accounting for the cross-sectional variation in the international returns.
Author: Campbell R. Harvey
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 55
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Book Description
This paper characterizes the forces that determine time-variation in expected international asset returns. We offer a number of innovations. By using the latent factor technique, we do not have to prespecify the sources of risk. We solve for the latent premiums and characterize their time-variation. We find evidence that the first factor premium resembles the expected return on the world market portfolio. However, the inclusion of this premium alone is not sufficient to explain the conditional variation in the returns. We find evidence of a second factor premium which is related to foreign exchange risk. Our sample includes new data on both international industry portfolios and international fixed income portfolios. We find that the two latent factor model performs better in explaining the conditional variation in asset returns than a prespecified two factor model. Finally, we show that differences in the risk loadings are important in accounting for the cross-sectional variation in the international returns.
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309261961
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 230
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Book Description
The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.
Author: Magnus Dahlquist
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
This paper assesses the ability of international asset pricing models to explain the cross-sectional variation in expected returns. All the models considered seem to capture national market returns fairly well. However, global portfolios, sorted on earnings-price ratio and market value, pose a special challenge. We find that an unconditional international CAPM cannot explain the cross-sectional variation in these portfolio returns. Interestingly, a conditional international asset pricing model that includes foreign exchange risk factors is able to explain a large part of the variation in average returns. Our empirical work suggests that this model has the same explanatory ability as an international three-factor model, where zero-cost portfolios based on earnings-price ratios and market values are used in addition to the world market portfolio. Importantly, the loadings associated with the zero-cost portfolios are driven out by the characteristics themselves, indicating a misspecification.
Author: Charles M.C. Lee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
This paper tests international asset pricing models using firm level expected returns estimated from the implied cost of capital approach and contrasts the results with those based on realized returns. Among G7 countries, we find that the implied cost of capital based expected returns are only one-tenth as volatile as those based on realized returns. As a result, while tests based on both implied cost of capital and realized returns produce economically similar findings, only tests based on implied cost of capital are statistically significant. Our results show that expected returns increase with world market beta, return volatility, financial leverage, and book-to-market ratios and decrease with currency beta and firm size. Overall, the evidence suggests that the implied cost of capital approach provides better insights into the cross-sectional determinants of firm-level expected returns in the international context.
Author: Wayne E. Ferson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Capital assets pricing model
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
This paper empirically examines multifactor asset pricing models for the returns and expected returns on eighteen national equity markets. The factors are chosen to measure global economic risks. Although previous studies do not reject the unconditional mean- variance efficiency of a world market portfolio, our evidence indicates that the tests are low in power, and the world market betas do not provide a good explanation of cross-sectional differences in average returns. Multiple beta models provide an improved explanation of the equity returns.
Author:
Publisher: Springer-Verlag
ISBN: 3663085287
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : de
Pages : 306
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Book Description
Implementing unconditional as well as conditional beta pricing models, the author identifies global economic factors that affect the performance of international investments.
Author: Robert Miguel W. K. Kollman
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145185062X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51
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Book Description
Empirically, output and asset returns are highly positively correlated across the United States and the other major industrialized countries. Standard business cycle models that assume flexible prices and wages, in the Real Business Cycle tradition, have great difficulties explaining this fact. This paper presents a dynamic-optimizing stochastic general equilibrium model of a two-country world with sticky nominal prices and wages and a flexible exchange rate. The structure here predicts positive international transmission of country-specific monetary policy and technology shocks, and it generates sizable cross-country correlations of output and of asset returns.
Author: Antti Ilmanen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 180
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Book Description
Can the art and science of investment management be reduced to a set of patterns that markets generally follow, in apparent violation of the efficient market hypothesis? Can investors reasonably expect to make money from the knowledge of these patterns, even after they have not only been identified but also widely exploited? Although one's first guess might be that the answers to these questions are no, at least sometimes, the answer is yes.
Author: Allan Timmermann
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Asset allocation
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
