Water Quality Evaluation Under Climate Change Impacts for Canagagigue Creek Watershed in Southern Ontario PDF Download
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Author: University of Guelph. School of Engineering
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 218
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Author: University of Guelph. School of Engineering
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 218
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Author: Karlen Hanke
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Agricultural chemicals
Languages : en
Pages : 100
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Within the Great Lakes region, agricultural non-point source nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) contamination contribute to algal blooms and decreased water quality, particularly from tile-drained landscapes. These water quality challenges are accompanied by anthropogenically induced increases in greenhouse gases within the atmosphere, which are leading to changes in climate, which may in turn exacerbate water quality issues by changing hydrological and biogeochemical cycling. This may be particularly important during the non-growing season (NGS), during which most of the annual nutrient export and flow occurs in the Great Lakes region. However, hydrologic and biogeochemical processes during the NGS are less well understood compared to the growing season. The implementation of beneficial management practices (BMP) such as controlled tile drainage (CD) have the potential to mitigate both current and future water quality issues. However, there is little information on the potential water quality tradeoffs associated with this particular practice under both contemporary and future climates. Such information is necessary before CD may be widely recommended and adopted as a BMP. In this thesis, the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to demonstrate the potential for CD to reduce nutrient losses in midwestern Ontario, under both current and future climates, and to understand the processes affecting nutrient export responses through the analyses of the water balance, flow regimes, and weather patterns, and to examine seasonal differences in these variables. In this study, two Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models were applied at varying scales. One was generated for the Medway Creek watershed, near London, ON, to understand the impact of climate change on water quality and quantity by forcing the model with a bias corrected general circulation model (GCM) ensemble. The second SWAT model was run at the field scale, for a field site near Londesborough, ON to understand the potential water quality tradeoffs associated with CD for a field with low-sloped clay loam soil. Results indicate that future changes in climate will cause shifts in seasonal water budgets, resulting in much greater nutrient export during the NGS and an overall increase in annual nutrient losses by the 2080-2100 period. These changes will be driven by precipitation quantity, but also changing precipitation characteristics (timing, form, magnitude, and frequency) and temperature, which will influence runoff pathways. The use of CD will not mitigate water quality issues and will instead exacerbate TP losses in runoff by increasing soil moisture and consequently increasing surface runoff. Although reductions of tile flow were greater than the simulated increases in surface runoff, the approximately 10X greater TP concentrations in surface runoff resulted in an overall increase in simulated edge-of-field TP losses. This will be particularly problematic where CD is used both during the NGS and growing season. This thesis has provided an improved understanding of the impacts of climate change on water quality in the MCW, and has demonstrated that CD has little potential to mitigate water quality issues in the present or future. This thesis has also demonstrated that understanding nutrient export processes during the NGS will be increasingly important for increasing BMP efficacy, reducing NPS contamination, and the occurrence of harmful algal blooms.
Author: University of Guelph. College of Biological Science
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Author: Ontario. Ministry of Environment and Energy
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Environmental impact analysis
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Baba-Serges Zango
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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A SWAT hydrological model is developed to evaluate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization and climate change on water quantity (discharge) and quality (N and P) of the watershed of Carp River in Ontario, Canada. Seven numerical experiments (scenarios) were developed to represent the different configurations of the watershed in terms of land use (either current or projected) and climate regime (current or future, observed or simulated). The reference period is 1990-2018, and the future period is 2021-2050. The 2017 land use was used to represent the reference period. The future land use is the projected 2050 land use obtained from the City of Ottawa. The future climate was obtained by downscaling the outputs of nine (9) Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5. The developed scenarios are the following: • S0o (baseline scenario) corresponding to the current land use map and the observed climate regime on the reference period • S0m is similar to S0o except that RCM outputs are used instead of the observed climate on the reference period • S1 corresponds to the future land use and historical climate regime on the reference period. • S0M45/S0M85 corresponds to the current land use and the future climate regime under RCP4.5 (S0M45) and RCP8.5 (S0M85) • S1M45/S1M85 corresponds to the future land use map and future climate regime under the two RCPs. The changes or impacts on quantity and quality in each scenario were estimated by comparing the results with the baseline scenarios S0o/m (reference) at two levels: globally (at the main outlet) and locally (at the outlet of an upstream sub-watershed). For a consistency purpose, S0o is used when assessing land-use change scenario while S0m was the reference in climate change and combined effects scenario. This allowed the comparison to be consistent with the same climate data frame. The results showed that climate change is likely to be the most dominant factor affecting discharge and nitrogen, while urbanization will control the quantity of phosphorus. Unsurprisingly, the combined effect had a more significant impact on water quantity and quality. However, the impact is not additive, and the relationship is not linear. Compared with S0, the annual average discharge increased by 1.57%, 5.49%, 7.52%, 6.75%, and 9.34% in S1, S0M45, S0M85, S1M45, and S1M85, respectively. In comparison, the change for annual N load was estimated at -1.88%, 29.62%, 2.03%, 24.84%, and -1.20% respectively. Change in annual average P was respectively 26.49%, 1.07%, -4.49%, 23.81% and 19.15%. Local impact assessment indicates the impact in upstream sub-watersheds may differ from the main outlet's impact in terms of magnitude and direction of change. Therefore, only considering global change may lead to a wrong interpretation of the impacts over the watershed. It is, therefore, necessary to evaluate the impacts at the local level as well.
Author: Qi Sha
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780494478271
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 137
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 3
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Author: Marie Sanderson
Publisher: Department of Geography University of Waterloo
ISBN: 9780921083481
Category : Global warming
Languages : en
Pages : 224
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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The impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water quality of the Pike River watershed, an important contributor of nutrient loads to northern Lake Champlain, were predicted for the time horizon 2041-2070. Four water quality scenarios were simulated using a version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modified to suit Québec's agroclimatic conditions. Three of the scenarios were generated using climates simulated with the Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4). The fourth scenario was generated using the climate simulated with the Arpege Regional Climate Model. SWAT was independently calibrated for the period 2001-2003, and then validated for the periods of 2004-2006 and 1980-2000, before inputting the climate scenarios. Potential mean changes predicted by these scenarios were then analysed for the evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface runoff, stream flow, sediment yields, and total phosphorus and nitrogen.After calibration, mean annual evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface flow as well as water percolation were found to correspond satisfactorily with the hydrology of the basin. Likewise, monthly predicted stream flow compared reasonably well with observed stream flow. The performance of SWAT in simulating sediment and nutrient yields was clearly improved after calibration but did not always reach standards of acceptability. As for climate change results, only one scenario predicted a significant increase in mean annual stream flow and nutrient loadings. However, when considering shorter time spans, simulations predicted significant changes including a winter stream flow two to three times greater than current stream flow and earlier spring floods. The identified causes are the early onset of spring snowmelt, a greater number of rainfall events and snowmelt episodes caused by higher winter and spring temperatures. In contrast, peak flows in April, as well as summer stream flow, appear to decrease but not always significantly. Nutrient
Author: Colline Gombault
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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"The impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water quality of the Pike River watershed, an important contributor of nutrient loads to northern Lake Champlain, were predicted for the time horizon 2041-2070. Four water quality scenarios were simulated using a version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modified to suit Québec's agroclimatic conditions. Three of the scenarios were generated using climates simulated with the Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4). The fourth scenario was generated using the climate simulated with the Arpege Regional Climate Model. SWAT was independently calibrated for the period 2001-2003, and then validated for the periods of 2004-2006 and 1980-2000, before inputting the climate scenarios. Potential mean changes predicted by these scenarios were then analysed for the evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface runoff, stream flow, sediment yields, and total phosphorus and nitrogen.After calibration, mean annual evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface flow as well as water percolation were found to correspond satisfactorily with the hydrology of the basin. Likewise, monthly predicted stream flow compared reasonably well with observed stream flow. The performance of SWAT in simulating sediment and nutrient yields was clearly improved after calibration but did not always reach standards of acceptability. As for climate change results, only one scenario predicted a significant increase in mean annual stream flow and nutrient loadings. However, when considering shorter time spans, simulations predicted significant changes including a winter stream flow two to three times greater than current stream flow and earlier spring floods. The identified causes are the early onset of spring snowmelt, a greater number of rainfall events and snowmelt episodes caused by higher winter and spring temperatures. In contrast, peak flows in April, as well as summer stream flow, appear to decrease but not always significantly. Nutrient delivery to the lake significantly increased in winter and occurred earlier in the year as a consequence of hydrological changes. A three- to four-fold increase in subsurface flow was also observed in winter which may increase nutrient losses through this pathway." --
