Volatility Transmission in the Real Estate Spot and Forward Markets PDF Download
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Author: Siu Kei Wong
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 19
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Book Description
How shocks in one market influence the returns and volatility of other markets has been an important question for portfolio managers. In the finance literature, many studies found evidence of volatility spillovers across international markets, as well as between spot and futures markets. Although real estate is often regarded as a good vehicle for diversification, the dynamics of its volatility transmission have been largely ignored. This paper provides the first study to examine volatility spillovers between the spot and forward (pre-sale) index returns of the Hong Kong real estate market through a bivariate GARCH model. Transaction-based indices were used so that our volatility modelling was free from any smoothing problem. Our results showed that real estate returns exhibited volatility clustering, and the volatility of the forward market was more sensitive to shocks than the spot market. Moreover, volatility was mainly transmitted from the forward market to the spot market, but not vice versa.
Author: Siu Kei Wong
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 19
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Book Description
How shocks in one market influence the returns and volatility of other markets has been an important question for portfolio managers. In the finance literature, many studies found evidence of volatility spillovers across international markets, as well as between spot and futures markets. Although real estate is often regarded as a good vehicle for diversification, the dynamics of its volatility transmission have been largely ignored. This paper provides the first study to examine volatility spillovers between the spot and forward (pre-sale) index returns of the Hong Kong real estate market through a bivariate GARCH model. Transaction-based indices were used so that our volatility modelling was free from any smoothing problem. Our results showed that real estate returns exhibited volatility clustering, and the volatility of the forward market was more sensitive to shocks than the spot market. Moreover, volatility was mainly transmitted from the forward market to the spot market, but not vice versa.
Author: Edward Chung Yim Yiu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This study analyzes the lead-lag relationship between the spot and forward returns on direct real estate investments. Based on the forward price index (for which the term to maturity is zero) and the expost spot price index of residential property in Hong Kong, changes in information flow between the spot and forward markets are tested to see how they affect the lead-lag relationship. The findings suggest that (1) during periods of low-volume ratios (i.e., the forward market is relatively less active than the spot market), the spot return Granger causes the returns of forward contracts; and (2) during periods of higher-volume ratios, there are feedback relationships between the two markets.
Author: Kim Hiang Liow
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We examine the dynamics and transmission of conditional volatilities with multiple structural changes in return volatility using Bai and Perron (2003)'s methodology, across five major securitized real estate markets as well as employing a multivariate regime-dependent asymmetric dynamic covariance methodology (MRDADC) that allows the conditional matrix to be both time- and state-varying. Our results imply that a multiple-regime time varying asymmetric variance and covariance approach is important in modeling real estate securities valuation and selection and portfolio optimization, and is consistent with popular beliefs that market volatility changes over time. Our MRDADC models detect the presence of significant mean-volatility linkages across the five major securitized real estate markets under different volatility regimes and would have implications for global investor in terms of estimating a dynamic risk-minimizing hedge ratio in international portfolio management.
Author: David Parker
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351664824
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 352
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Book Description
The Routledge REITs Research Handbook presents a cutting-edge examination of the research into this key global investment vehicle. Edited by internationally respected academic and REIT expert Professor David Parker, the book will set the research agenda for years to come. The handbook is divided into two parts, the first of which provides the global context and a thematic review covering: asset allocation, performance, trading, sustainability, Islamic REITs, emerging sectors and behavioural finance. Part II presents a regional review of the issues with high level case studies from a diverse range of countries including the US, UK, Brazil, India, Australia, China, Singapore, Israel and Russia, to name just a few. This handbook redefines existing areas within the context of international REITs research, highlights emerging areas and future trends and provides postgraduates, professionals and researchers with ideas and encouragement for future research. It is essential reading for all those interested in real estate, international investment, global finance and asset management.
Author: Peijie Wang
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134091451
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 337
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Book Description
This book provides an essential toolkit for all students wishing to know more about the modelling and analysis of financial data. Applications of econometric techniques are becoming increasingly common in the world of finance and this second edition of an established text covers the following key themes:- unit roots, cointegration and other develop
Author: Martin Hoesli
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This paper analyzes the relationships between local and global securitized real estate markets, but also between securitized real estate and common stock markets. First, the volatility transmissions across markets are examined using an asymmetric t-BEKK (Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner) specification of their covariance matrix. Second, correlations from that model and tail dependences estimated using a time-varying copula framework are analyzed to assess whether different dynamics underlie the comovements in the whole distribution and those in the trails. Third, we investigate market contagion by testing for structural changes in the tail dependences. We use data for the U.S., the U.K. and Australia for the period 1990-2010 as a basis for our analyses. Spillover effects are found to be the largest in the U.S., both domestically and internationally. Further, comovements in tail distributions between markets appear to be quite important. We also document different dynamics between the conditional tail dependences and correlations. Finally, we find evidence of market contagion between the U.S. and the U.K. markets following the subprime crisis.
Author:
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 113409146X
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 337
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Book Description
Author: Kim Hiang Liow
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
This paper is a contribution to the literature in international real estate market volatility dynamics and linkages from an alternative perspective. We analyzes the dynamics and transmission of conditional volatilities with multiple structural changes in mean returns and volatility using the Bai and Perron (2003) methodology, across five major securitized real estate markets, employing a multivariate regime-dependent asymmetric dynamic covariance model (MRDADC) that allows the conditional matrix to be both time- and state-varying. Important contributions of this study are the findings of statistically significant variables that represent the multiple regime changes. When taken into consideration, they influence the return-volatility transmission across markets as well as time-varying asymmetric variances and covariance dynamics in our MRDADC representation.
Author: Edward Chung Yim Yiu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Noise trading has been intensively studied in finance, but rarely in real estate. Theories of price dispersion have also been well established in retailing research, but less so in real estate. This paper is the first attempt to study the effect of noise trading on price dispersion in the real estate spot and presale (forward) markets. Quality-controlled price dispersion data series are estimated using a sample of transaction data in the housing presale and spot markets in Hong Kong. Our results show that transaction volume has a negative and significant effect on price dispersion in the spot market, but a positive and significant in the presale market. These support our conjecture that there are more noise traders in the presale market due to lower transaction costs. The volume effects also provide support for the use of a volume weighted least squares model when constructing a repeat sales index.
Author: Chyi Lin Lee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
In 2007 futures contracts were introduced based upon the listed real estate market in Europe. Following their launch they have received increasing attention from property investors, however, few studies have considered the impact their introduction has had. This study considers two key elements. Firstly, a traditional Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, the approach of Bessembinder & Sequin (1992) and the Gray's (1996) Markov-switching-GARCH model are used to examine the impact of futures trading on the European real estate securities market. The results show that futures trading did not destabilize the underlying listed market. Importantly, the results also reveal that the introduction of a futures market has improved the speed and qualify of information flowing to the spot market. Secondly, we assess the hedging effectiveness of the contracts using two alternative strategies (naive and Ordinary Least Squares models). The empirical results also show that contracts are effective hedging instruments, leading to a reduction in risk of 64%.
