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Author: Sergio Andrés González Orjuela
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Volatility trading has become a prominent alternative to the traditional stock trading as the rapid development of web-trading in recent years has reduced significantly the costs of operating in the market. Moreover, machine learning techniques have enabled traders to rely heavily on statistical decision-making models to enhance the commonly used technical analysis. In this paper, a machine learning approach is used to predict proxies of short-term implied volatility clusters with high-frequency data, in order to perform trading strategies using vanilla options on a commercial platform. The empirical results indicate that tree-based methods outperform linear models in classifying these clusters using the time of the day as a key variable in the forecasting task. Financial results were mixed due to the high costs of operating in a 5-hour horizon, but it was found that long positions on at the money straddle strategies expiring in one day were profitable. The framework developed here can be used by small investors as a guidance to implement and assess theoretical strategies in accessible markets.
Author: Sergio Andrés González Orjuela
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Volatility trading has become a prominent alternative to the traditional stock trading as the rapid development of web-trading in recent years has reduced significantly the costs of operating in the market. Moreover, machine learning techniques have enabled traders to rely heavily on statistical decision-making models to enhance the commonly used technical analysis. In this paper, a machine learning approach is used to predict proxies of short-term implied volatility clusters with high-frequency data, in order to perform trading strategies using vanilla options on a commercial platform. The empirical results indicate that tree-based methods outperform linear models in classifying these clusters using the time of the day as a key variable in the forecasting task. Financial results were mixed due to the high costs of operating in a 5-hour horizon, but it was found that long positions on at the money straddle strategies expiring in one day were profitable. The framework developed here can be used by small investors as a guidance to implement and assess theoretical strategies in accessible markets.
Author: Artur Sepp
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
Academics and practitioners have developed many models for volatility measurement and forecast - I estimate that the total number of available models to be about 200-300 if we count all modifications of intraday estimators, GARCH-type and continuous-time models.In practice, the estimate and forecast of the volatility serves provide vital inputs to many applications ranging from signal construction to algorithmic strategies and quantitative methods for portfolio allocation. By applying machine learning to the volatility modeling, we can reduce the back-test bias and, as a result, improve the performance of live strategies.First, I implemented about 40 different volatility models from 4 separate model classes including intraday estimators, GARCH-type and Bayesian models, and Hidden Markov Chain (HMC) models.Then, I applied the supervised learning for each of the volatility models with the goal is to analyze the out-of-sample fit of the model prediction to the time series data. I propose a few regression-based tests which are applied to gauge the performance of all volatility models.The final step is the reinforcement learning that includes aggregation and analysis of the test results from the supervised learning. The goal is to dynamically select the best model out of 40 that provides the best predicative power out-of-sample. I use the analogy to the web-search to weight the importance of the test results when producing volatility forecasts for specific trading algorithms. One of key discoveries is that Hidden Markov Chain model is one of the best model for volatility forecast across many asset classes. I also observe the cyclical pattern in the rankings of the best models. On one hand, Hidden Chain models perform the best in periods with strong trends. On the other hand, simple intraday estimators perform the best in periods with range-bound markets. The machine learning enables to dynamically choose the best model for the present cycle.
Author: Stefan Jansen
Publisher: Packt Publishing Ltd
ISBN: 1839216786
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 822
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Book Description
Leverage machine learning to design and back-test automated trading strategies for real-world markets using pandas, TA-Lib, scikit-learn, LightGBM, SpaCy, Gensim, TensorFlow 2, Zipline, backtrader, Alphalens, and pyfolio. Purchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free eBook in the PDF format. Key FeaturesDesign, train, and evaluate machine learning algorithms that underpin automated trading strategiesCreate a research and strategy development process to apply predictive modeling to trading decisionsLeverage NLP and deep learning to extract tradeable signals from market and alternative dataBook Description The explosive growth of digital data has boosted the demand for expertise in trading strategies that use machine learning (ML). This revised and expanded second edition enables you to build and evaluate sophisticated supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning models. This book introduces end-to-end machine learning for the trading workflow, from the idea and feature engineering to model optimization, strategy design, and backtesting. It illustrates this by using examples ranging from linear models and tree-based ensembles to deep-learning techniques from cutting edge research. This edition shows how to work with market, fundamental, and alternative data, such as tick data, minute and daily bars, SEC filings, earnings call transcripts, financial news, or satellite images to generate tradeable signals. It illustrates how to engineer financial features or alpha factors that enable an ML model to predict returns from price data for US and international stocks and ETFs. It also shows how to assess the signal content of new features using Alphalens and SHAP values and includes a new appendix with over one hundred alpha factor examples. By the end, you will be proficient in translating ML model predictions into a trading strategy that operates at daily or intraday horizons, and in evaluating its performance. What you will learnLeverage market, fundamental, and alternative text and image dataResearch and evaluate alpha factors using statistics, Alphalens, and SHAP valuesImplement machine learning techniques to solve investment and trading problemsBacktest and evaluate trading strategies based on machine learning using Zipline and BacktraderOptimize portfolio risk and performance analysis using pandas, NumPy, and pyfolioCreate a pairs trading strategy based on cointegration for US equities and ETFsTrain a gradient boosting model to predict intraday returns using AlgoSeek's high-quality trades and quotes dataWho this book is for If you are a data analyst, data scientist, Python developer, investment analyst, or portfolio manager interested in getting hands-on machine learning knowledge for trading, this book is for you. This book is for you if you want to learn how to extract value from a diverse set of data sources using machine learning to design your own systematic trading strategies. Some understanding of Python and machine learning techniques is required.
Author: John L. Knight
Publisher: Butterworth-Heinemann
ISBN: 9780750655156
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 428
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Book Description
This text assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting edge modeling and forecasting techniques. It then uses a technical survey to explain the different ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return.
Author: Marcelo Sardelich Nascimento
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Robert Kissell
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0124016936
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 492
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Book Description
The Science of Algorithmic Trading and Portfolio Management, with its emphasis on algorithmic trading processes and current trading models, sits apart from others of its kind. Robert Kissell, the first author to discuss algorithmic trading across the various asset classes, provides key insights into ways to develop, test, and build trading algorithms. Readers learn how to evaluate market impact models and assess performance across algorithms, traders, and brokers, and acquire the knowledge to implement electronic trading systems. This valuable book summarizes market structure, the formation of prices, and how different participants interact with one another, including bluffing, speculating, and gambling. Readers learn the underlying details and mathematics of customized trading algorithms, as well as advanced modeling techniques to improve profitability through algorithmic trading and appropriate risk management techniques. Portfolio management topics, including quant factors and black box models, are discussed, and an accompanying website includes examples, data sets supplementing exercises in the book, and large projects. Prepares readers to evaluate market impact models and assess performance across algorithms, traders, and brokers. Helps readers design systems to manage algorithmic risk and dark pool uncertainty. Summarizes an algorithmic decision making framework to ensure consistency between investment objectives and trading objectives.
Author: Renuka Sharma
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1394214316
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 358
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Book Description
DEEP LEARNING TOOLS for PREDICTING STOCK MARKET MOVEMENTS The book provides a comprehensive overview of current research and developments in the field of deep learning models for stock market forecasting in the developed and developing worlds. The book delves into the realm of deep learning and embraces the challenges, opportunities, and transformation of stock market analysis. Deep learning helps foresee market trends with increased accuracy. With advancements in deep learning, new opportunities in styles, tools, and techniques evolve and embrace data-driven insights with theories and practical applications. Learn about designing, training, and applying predictive models with rigorous attention to detail. This book offers critical thinking skills and the cultivation of discerning approaches to market analysis. The book: details the development of an ensemble model for stock market prediction, combining long short-term memory and autoregressive integrated moving average; explains the rapid expansion of quantum computing technologies in financial systems; provides an overview of deep learning techniques for forecasting stock market trends and examines their effectiveness across different time frames and market conditions; explores applications and implications of various models for causality, volatility, and co-integration in stock markets, offering insights to investors and policymakers. Audience The book has a wide audience of researchers in financial technology, financial software engineering, artificial intelligence, professional market investors, investment institutions, and asset management companies.
Author: Tim Hess
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Marijn A. Bolhuis
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513531727
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
We develop a framework to nowcast (and forecast) economic variables with machine learning techniques. We explain how machine learning methods can address common shortcomings of traditional OLS-based models and use several machine learning models to predict real output growth with lower forecast errors than traditional models. By combining multiple machine learning models into ensembles, we lower forecast errors even further. We also identify measures of variable importance to help improve the transparency of machine learning-based forecasts. Applying the framework to Turkey reduces forecast errors by at least 30 percent relative to traditional models. The framework also better predicts economic volatility, suggesting that machine learning techniques could be an important part of the macro forecasting toolkit of many countries.
Author: Tomé Almeida Borges
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030683796
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 93
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Book Description
This book presents a system that combines the expertise of four algorithms, namely Gradient Tree Boosting, Logistic Regression, Random Forest and Support Vector Classifier to trade with several cryptocurrencies. A new method for resampling financial data is presented as alternative to the classical time sampled data commonly used in financial market trading. The new resampling method uses a closing value threshold to resample the data creating a signal better suited for financial trading, thus achieving higher returns without increased risk. The performance of the algorithm with the new resampling method and the classical time sampled data are compared and the advantages of using the system developed in this work are highlighted.
