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Author: Robert McNally
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 0231543689
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 336
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Book Description
As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.
Author: Robert McNally
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 0231543689
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 336
Get Book Here
Book Description
As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.
Author: Robert S. Pindyck
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Capital investments
Languages : en
Pages : 58
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Book Description
Irreversible investment is especially sensitive to such risk factors as volatile exchange rates and uncertainty about tariff structures and future cash flows. If the goal of macroeconomic policy is to stimulate investment, stability and credibility may be more important than tax incentives or interest rates.
Author: Kent Moors
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118077091
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 324
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Book Description
How oil volatility is affecting the global political scene, and where the oil market is heading The world is rapidly moving towards an oil environment defined by volatility. The Vega Factor: Oil Volatility and the Next Global Crisis takes an in-depth look at the most important topics in the industry, including strategic risk, why traditional pricing mechanisms will no longer govern the market, and how the current government approaches have only worsened an already bad situation. Details the industry's players, including companies, traders, and governments Describes the priorities that will need to be revised, and the policies needed to achieve stability Explains how today's oil market is fundamentally different from the pre-crisis market Oil prices affect everyone. The Vega Factor explains the new international oil environment of increasing consolidation and decreasing competition, and reveals how consumers and investors can navigate price volatility and new government policies.
Author: Apostolos Serletis
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated
ISBN: 9789814390675
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 142
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Book Description
The relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental issue in macroeconomics. There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether positive oil price shocks cause recessions in the United States (and other oil-importing countries), and although there exists a vast empirical literature that investigates the effects of oil price shocks, there are relatively few studies that investigate the direct effects of uncertainty about oil prices on the real economy. The book uses recent advances in macroeconomics and financial economics to investigate the effects of oil price shocks and uncertainty about the price of oil on the level of economic activity.
Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498333486
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Author: Jordi Galí
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226278875
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 663
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Book Description
United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Author: Mr.Aasim M. Husain
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 151357227X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
Author: Burcu Adıgüzel Mercangöz
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030541088
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 465
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Book Description
This handbook presents emerging research exploring the theoretical and practical aspects of econometric techniques for the financial sector and their applications in economics. By doing so, it offers invaluable tools for predicting and weighing the risks of multiple investments by incorporating data analysis. Throughout the book the authors address a broad range of topics such as predictive analysis, monetary policy, economic growth, systemic risk and investment behavior. This book is a must-read for researchers, scholars and practitioners in the field of economics who are interested in a better understanding of current research on the application of econometric methods to financial sector data.
Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475572360
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Author: Han T. J. Smit
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400829399
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 504
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Book Description
Corporate finance and corporate strategy have long been seen as different sides of the same coin. Though both focus on the same broad problem, investment decision-making, the gap between the two sides--and between theory and practice--remains embarrassingly large. This book synthesizes cutting-edge developments in corporate finance and related fields--in particular, real options and game theory--to help bridge this gap. In clear, straightforward exposition and through numerous examples and applications from various industries, Han Smit and Lenos Trigeorgis set forth an extended valuation framework for competitive strategies. The book follows a problem-solving approach that synthesizes ideas from game theory, real options, and strategy. Thinking in terms of options-games can help managers address questions such as: When is it best to invest early to preempt competitive entry, and when to wait? Should a firm compete in R&D or adopt an accommodating stance? How does one value growth options or infrastructure investments? The authors provide a wide range of valuation examples, such as acquisition strategies, R&D investment in high-tech sectors, joint research ventures, product introductions in consumer electronics, infrastructure, and oil exploration investment. Representing a major step beyond standard real options or strategy analysis, and extending the power of real options and strategic thinking in a rigorous fashion, Strategic Investment will be an indispensable guide and resource for corporate managers, MBA students, and academics alike.
