Unmaking the West PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Unmaking the West PDF full book. Access full book title Unmaking the West by Philip Eyrikson Tetlock. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Philip Eyrikson Tetlock
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
ISBN: 9780472031436
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 438
Get Book Here
Book Description
9788472457904.txt
Author: Philip Eyrikson Tetlock
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
ISBN: 9780472031436
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 438
Get Book Here
Book Description
9788472457904.txt
Author: Philip Eyrikson Tetlock
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 438
Get Book Here
Book Description
9788472457904.txt
Author: Jeremy Salt
Publisher: Univ of California Press
ISBN: 0520261704
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 480
Get Book Here
Book Description
Politics & government.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 9780691027913
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 362
Get Book Here
Book Description
Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.
Author: James C. Murphy
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780522878363
Category : City planning
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
For some years, Melbourne's aborted East-West Link created intense picketing and protests, multiple court challenges, breathless media coverage and bitter politicking. The Link brought the downfall of the single-term Baillieu-Napthine Liberal government; its cancellation cost the state half a billion dollars; and it lives on in infamy, a byword in the Australian lexicon for political brinkmanship, waste and politicisation of infrastructure. In The Making and Unmaking of East-West Link, James C Murphy explores the saga from competing vantage points, detailing the layers of politics and intrigue that saturate infrastructure policymaking in Australia.
Author: Ayşe Zarakol
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 110883860X
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 331
Get Book Here
Book Description
Zarakol presents the first comprehensive history of the international relations in 'the East', and rethinks 'sovereignty', 'order-making' and 'decline'.
Author: Gershom Gorenberg
Publisher: Harper Collins
ISBN: 0062097318
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 249
Get Book Here
Book Description
Prominent Israeli journalist GershomGorenbergoffers a penetrating and provocativelook at how the balance of power in Israel has shifted toward extremism,threatening the prospects for peace and democracy as the Israeli-Palestinianconflict intensifies. Informing his examination using interviews in Israel andthe West Bank and with access to previously classified Israeli documents, Gorenberg delivers an incisive discussion of the causes andtrends of extremism in Israel’s government and society. Michael Chabon, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The AmazingAdventures of Kavalier and Clay, writes, "until I read The Unmaking of Israel, I didn't think it could bepossible to feel more despairing, and then more terribly hopeful, about Israel,a place that I began at last, under the spell of GershomGorenberg's lucid and dispassionate yet intenselypersonal writing, to understand."
Author: Richard Ned Lebow
Publisher: Macmillan
ISBN: 1137278536
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 258
Get Book Here
Book Description
Examining the chain of events that led to the Great War and what could reasonably have been done differently to avoid it, an acclaimed political psychologist creates plausible worlds, some better, some worse, that might have developed.
Author: Monica McDermott
Publisher: Univ of California Press
ISBN: 0520248090
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 212
Get Book Here
Book Description
Publisher Description
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400888816
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 368
Get Book Here
Book Description
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
