Understanding the Poisson Log-Bilinear Regression Approach PDF Download
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Author: Denzel Chua
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
ISBN: 9783847324683
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 116
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Book Description
Mortality tables play a very important role in planning for health care systems and in computing life insurance premiums. For the past few decades, there has been an increase in the number of studies about estimating and forecasting mortality tables as a response to mortality improvements. In the early 1990's, the Lee-Carter model was developed and has been widely used for studies on mortality rate and has been subjected to some modifications for improvements. This paper utilized one of these modifications, which was proposed by Brouhns, et.al. (2002). The number of deaths, a count random variable, is said to be well-suited to the Poisson distribution. Thus, this makes the Poisson log-bilinear regression model appropriate in modeling and forecasting mortality. This book aims to be able to fit the Poisson log-bilinear model to the number of deaths for some northern European countries. A maximum likelihood estimation technique is used to estimate the parameters of the model with the aid of LEM program and SAS. A chi-squared goodness of fit test was performed to test significance and usability of model. Lastly, the deviance residuals for the estimated number of deaths were taken.
Author: Denzel Chua
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
ISBN: 9783847324683
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 116
Get Book Here
Book Description
Mortality tables play a very important role in planning for health care systems and in computing life insurance premiums. For the past few decades, there has been an increase in the number of studies about estimating and forecasting mortality tables as a response to mortality improvements. In the early 1990's, the Lee-Carter model was developed and has been widely used for studies on mortality rate and has been subjected to some modifications for improvements. This paper utilized one of these modifications, which was proposed by Brouhns, et.al. (2002). The number of deaths, a count random variable, is said to be well-suited to the Poisson distribution. Thus, this makes the Poisson log-bilinear regression model appropriate in modeling and forecasting mortality. This book aims to be able to fit the Poisson log-bilinear model to the number of deaths for some northern European countries. A maximum likelihood estimation technique is used to estimate the parameters of the model with the aid of LEM program and SAS. A chi-squared goodness of fit test was performed to test significance and usability of model. Lastly, the deviance residuals for the estimated number of deaths were taken.
Author: A. Colin Cameron
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107717795
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 597
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Book Description
Students in both social and natural sciences often seek regression methods to explain the frequency of events, such as visits to a doctor, auto accidents, or new patents awarded. This book, now in its second edition, provides the most comprehensive and up-to-date account of models and methods to interpret such data. The authors combine theory and practice to make sophisticated methods of analysis accessible to researchers and practitioners working with widely different types of data and software in areas such as applied statistics, econometrics, marketing, operations research, actuarial studies, demography, biostatistics and quantitative social sciences. The new material includes new theoretical topics, an updated and expanded treatment of cross-section models, coverage of bootstrap-based and simulation-based inference, expanded treatment of time series, multivariate and panel data, expanded treatment of endogenous regressors, coverage of quantile count regression, and a new chapter on Bayesian methods.
Author: Michel Denuit
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030258270
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 250
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Book Description
This book reviews some of the most recent developments in neural networks, with a focus on applications in actuarial sciences and finance. It simultaneously introduces the relevant tools for developing and analyzing neural networks, in a style that is mathematically rigorous yet accessible. Artificial intelligence and neural networks offer a powerful alternative to statistical methods for analyzing data. Various topics are covered from feed-forward networks to deep learning, such as Bayesian learning, boosting methods and Long Short Term Memory models. All methods are applied to claims, mortality or time-series forecasting. Requiring only a basic knowledge of statistics, this book is written for masters students in the actuarial sciences and for actuaries wishing to update their skills in machine learning. This is the third of three volumes entitled Effective Statistical Learning Methods for Actuaries. Written by actuaries for actuaries, this series offers a comprehensive overview of insurance data analytics with applications to P&C, life and health insurance. Although closely related to the other two volumes, this volume can be read independently.
Author: Mario V. Wüthrich
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 303112409X
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 611
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Book Description
This open access book discusses the statistical modeling of insurance problems, a process which comprises data collection, data analysis and statistical model building to forecast insured events that may happen in the future. It presents the mathematical foundations behind these fundamental statistical concepts and how they can be applied in daily actuarial practice. Statistical modeling has a wide range of applications, and, depending on the application, the theoretical aspects may be weighted differently: here the main focus is on prediction rather than explanation. Starting with a presentation of state-of-the-art actuarial models, such as generalized linear models, the book then dives into modern machine learning tools such as neural networks and text recognition to improve predictive modeling with complex features. Providing practitioners with detailed guidance on how to apply machine learning methods to real-world data sets, and how to interpret the results without losing sight of the mathematical assumptions on which these methods are based, the book can serve as a modern basis for an actuarial education syllabus.
Author: Dmitrii Silvestrov
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319066536
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 388
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Book Description
This book is a compilation of 21 papers presented at the International Cramér Symposium on Insurance Mathematics (ICSIM) held at Stockholm University in June, 2013. The book comprises selected contributions from several large research communities in modern insurance mathematics and its applications. The main topics represented in the book are modern risk theory and its applications, stochastic modelling of insurance business, new mathematical problems in life and non-life insurance and related topics in applied and financial mathematics. The book is an original and useful source of inspiration and essential reference for a broad spectrum of theoretical and applied researchers, research students and experts from the insurance business. In this way, Modern Problems in Insurance Mathematics will contribute to the development of research and academy–industry co-operation in the area of insurance mathematics and its applications.
Author: Peter H. Westfall
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 100006963X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 453
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Book Description
Understanding Regression Analysis unifies diverse regression applications including the classical model, ANOVA models, generalized models including Poisson, Negative binomial, logistic, and survival, neural networks, and decision trees under a common umbrella -- namely, the conditional distribution model. It explains why the conditional distribution model is the correct model, and it also explains (proves) why the assumptions of the classical regression model are wrong. Unlike other regression books, this one from the outset takes a realistic approach that all models are just approximations. Hence, the emphasis is to model Nature’s processes realistically, rather than to assume (incorrectly) that Nature works in particular, constrained ways. Key features of the book include: Numerous worked examples using the R software Key points and self-study questions displayed "just-in-time" within chapters Simple mathematical explanations ("baby proofs") of key concepts Clear explanations and applications of statistical significance (p-values), incorporating the American Statistical Association guidelines Use of "data-generating process" terminology rather than "population" Random-X framework is assumed throughout (the fixed-X case is presented as a special case of the random-X case) Clear explanations of probabilistic modelling, including likelihood-based methods Use of simulations throughout to explain concepts and to perform data analyses This book has a strong orientation towards science in general, as well as chapter-review and self-study questions, so it can be used as a textbook for research-oriented students in the social, biological and medical, and physical and engineering sciences. As well, its mathematical emphasis makes it ideal for a text in mathematics and statistics courses. With its numerous worked examples, it is also ideally suited to be a reference book for all scientists.
Author: Marco Corazza
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030996387
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 456
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Book Description
The cooperation and contamination among mathematicians, statisticians and econometricians working in actuarial sciences and finance are improving the research on these topics and producing numerous meaningful scientific results. This volume presents new ideas in the form of four- to six-page papers presented at the International Conference MAF2022 – Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the conference, to which this book is related, was organized in a hybrid form by the Department of Economics and Statistics of the University of Salerno, with the partnership of the Department of Economics of Cà Foscari University of Venice, and was held from 20 to 22 April 2022 in Salerno (Italy) MAF2022 is the tenth edition of an international biennial series of scientific meetings, started in 2004 on the initiative of the Department of Economics and Statistics of the University of Salerno. It has established itself internationally with gradual and continuous growth and scientific enrichment. The effectiveness of this idea has been proven by the wide participation in all the editions, which have been held in Salerno (2004, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2022), Venice (2008, 2012 and 2020 online), Paris (2016) and Madrid (2018). This book covers a wide variety of subjects: artificial intelligence and machine learning in finance and insurance, behavioural finance, credit risk methods and models, dynamic optimization in finance, financial data analytics, forecasting dynamics of actuarial and financial phenomena, foreign exchange markets, insurance models, interest rate models, longevity risk, models and methods for financial time series analysis, multivariate techniques for financial markets analysis, pension systems, portfolio selection and management, real-world finance, risk analysis and management, trading systems, and others. This volume is a valuable resource for academics, PhD students, practitioners, professionals and researchers. Moreover, it is also of interest to other readers with quantitative background knowledge.
Author: Katrien Antonio
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Peter D. Congdon
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1498785913
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 580
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Book Description
An intermediate-level treatment of Bayesian hierarchical models and their applications, this book demonstrates the advantages of a Bayesian approach to data sets involving inferences for collections of related units or variables, and in methods where parameters can be treated as random collections. Through illustrative data analysis and attention to statistical computing, this book facilitates practical implementation of Bayesian hierarchical methods. The new edition is a revision of the book Applied Bayesian Hierarchical Methods. It maintains a focus on applied modelling and data analysis, but now using entirely R-based Bayesian computing options. It has been updated with a new chapter on regression for causal effects, and one on computing options and strategies. This latter chapter is particularly important, due to recent advances in Bayesian computing and estimation, including the development of rjags and rstan. It also features updates throughout with new examples. The examples exploit and illustrate the broader advantages of the R computing environment, while allowing readers to explore alternative likelihood assumptions, regression structures, and assumptions on prior densities. Features: Provides a comprehensive and accessible overview of applied Bayesian hierarchical modelling Includes many real data examples to illustrate different modelling topics R code (based on rjags, jagsUI, R2OpenBUGS, and rstan) is integrated into the book, emphasizing implementation Software options and coding principles are introduced in new chapter on computing Programs and data sets available on the book’s website
Author: Sio-iong Ao
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9813142731
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 469
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Book Description
Two large international conferences on Advances in Engineering Sciences were held in Hong Kong, March 18-20, 2015, under the International MultiConference of Engineers and Computer Scientists (IMECS 2015), and in London, UK, 1-3 July, 2015, under the World Congress on Engineering (WCE 2015) respectively. This volume contains 35 revised and extended research articles written by prominent researchers participating in the conferences. Topics covered include engineering mathematics, computer science, electrical engineering, manufacturing engineering, industrial engineering, and industrial applications. The book offers state-of-the-art advances in engineering sciences and also serves as an excellent reference work for researchers and graduate students working with/on engineering sciences.
