Understanding Changes in Corporate Credit Spreads PDF Download
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Author: Doron Avramov
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
New evidence is reported on the empirical success of structural models in explaining changes in corporate credit risk. A parsimonious set of common factors and company-level fundamentals, inspired by structural models, was found to explain more than 54 percent (67 percent) of the variation in credit-spread changes for medium-grade (low-grade) bonds. No dominant latent factor was present in the unexplained variation. Although this set of factors had lower explanatory power among high-grade bonds, it did capture most of the systematic variation in credit-spread changes in that category. It also subsumed the explanatory power of the Fama and French factors among all grade classes.
Author: Doron Avramov
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
New evidence is reported on the empirical success of structural models in explaining changes in corporate credit risk. A parsimonious set of common factors and company-level fundamentals, inspired by structural models, was found to explain more than 54 percent (67 percent) of the variation in credit-spread changes for medium-grade (low-grade) bonds. No dominant latent factor was present in the unexplained variation. Although this set of factors had lower explanatory power among high-grade bonds, it did capture most of the systematic variation in credit-spread changes in that category. It also subsumed the explanatory power of the Fama and French factors among all grade classes.
Author: Jing-Zhi Huang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We examine the question of the determinants of corporate bond credit spreads using both weekly and monthly option-adjusted spreads for nine corporate bond indices from Merrill Lynch from January 1997 to July 2002. We find that the Russell 2000 index historical return volatility and Conference Board composite leading and coincident economic indicators have significant power in explaining credit spread changes, especially for high yield indices. Furthermore, these three variables plus the interest rate level, the historical interest rate volatility, the yield curve slope, the Russell 2000 index return, and the Fama-French [1996] high-minus-low factor can explain more than 40% of credit spread changes for five bond indexes. In particular, these eight variables can explain 67.68% and 60.82% of credit spread changes for the B- and BB rated indexes, respectively. Our analysis confirms that credit spread changes for high-yield bonds are more closely related to equity market factors and also provides evidence in favor of incorporating macroeconomic factors into credit risk models.
Author: Doron Avramov
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 27
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Book Description
This paper provides new evidence on the empirical success of structural models in explaining corporate credit risk changes. A parsimonious set of common factors and firm-level fundamentals, inspired by structural models, explains more than 54% (67%) of the variation in credit spread changes for medium (low) grade bonds. No dominant latent factor is present in the unexplained variation. While our set of variables has lower explanatory power among high-grade bonds, it does capture most of the systematic variation of credit spread changes in that category as well. It also subsumes the explanatory power of the Fama and French (1993) factors among all grade classes.
Author: Wassim Dbouk
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Ortenca Kume
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This thesis deals with various issues regarding determinants of US corporate credit spreads. These spreads are estimated as the difference between yields to maturity for corporate bonds and default-free instruments (Treasury bonds) of the same maturity. Corporate credit spreads are considered as measures of default risk. However, the premium required by investors for holding risky rather than risk-free bonds will incorporate a compensation not only for the default risk but also for other factors related to corporate bonds such as market liquidity or tax differential between corporate and Treasury bonds. In this study we firstly examine the relationship between bond ratings and credit spreads given that bond rating changes are expected to carry some informational value for debt investors. The findings indicate that bond ratings generally carry some informational value for corporate bond investors. The Granger causal relationship is more evident for negative watch lists and during periods of uncertainty in financial markets. In line with previous studies, our results suggest that changes in credit spreads are significantly related to interest rate levels, systematic risk factors (Fama and French) factors and equity returns.
Author: F. Hagenstein
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230523293
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 355
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Book Description
Investing in Corporate Bonds and Credit Risk is a valuable tool for any corporate bond investor. All the most recent developments and strategies in investment in corporate bonds are analyzed included with qualitative and quantitative approaches. A complete and up-to-date investment process is developed through the book, using many examples taken from banking practice. The growing significance of derivative instruments and credit diversification to bond investors is also analyzed in detail.
Author: Bo Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 21
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Book Description
Based on the structural model, macroeconomic and liquidity factors are tested against credit spread changes in American OTC corporate bonds. I discovered that the volatility of long run Treasury yield has even greater explanatory power than the yield itself. Macroeconomic indicators, such as Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index, have significant explanatory power over credit spread changes while there is only weak evidence that a common liquidity factor is missing from the model.
Author: Christopher Hessel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 23
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Book Description
This paper investigates the change of the credit spread volatility from 1993 to 2001. We find that credit spreads between junk grade corporate bonds and Treasury bond are significantly more volatile in the second half of this period when credit related securities become popular. However credit spreads between investment-grade corporate debt and Treasury are not significantly more volatile. For the period prior to the introduction of credit related securities, credit spread changes followed mean reverting processes. In the period with rapid growth of these new products, the credit spread changes shifted toward random walk processes. The loss of the mean reverting process with the advent of the new securities is consistent with increased market efficiency.
Author: Sebastian Wilde
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 334670761X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 79
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Book Description
Master's Thesis from the year 2022 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1,7, University of Hagen (Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Lehrstuhl für Bank- und Finanzwirtschaft), language: English, abstract: Corporate bond credit spreads are much larger than historical default rates, which leads to an unexplained gap between the default premium component and total credit spread. This gap is referred to as the "credit spread puzzle" in the literature and has driven the discussion of the components of credit spreads in the past decades. The size of each component affects the decision of whether to purchase a particular class of bonds; this underlines its importance in risk management, portfolio management, and valuation. The first goal of the thesis is to provide a comprehensive review of the current state of research on how to decompose credit spreads and estimate their parts. Second, in an empirical study, the systematic risk in current EUR-denominated credit spreads is estimated and compared to the results of Elton et al. (2001). Furthermore, I analyze the regime-dependence of credit spreads for different cross-sections, as systematic risk has proven important in crisis periods. Finally, implications for the calculation of debt beta are derived as in business valuations it is possible to use a debt beta if the debt of the valuation object is subject to a systematic risk that leads to a signifcant risk premium demanded by debt providers. I show that the systematic part of the credit spread for observed EUR-denominated bond spreads from 2009 to 2021 can be assumed higher than in the US bond market, is regime-dependent and would have direct implications on the calculation and relevance of a debt beta for business valuations.
Author: Jose De Gregorio
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic development
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Book Description
