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Author: Bilal Ayyub
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780792380306
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 414
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Book Description
Uncertainty has been of concern to engineers, managers and . scientists for many centuries. In management sciences there have existed definitions of uncertainty in a rather narrow sense since the beginning of this century. In engineering and uncertainty has for a long time been considered as in sciences, however, synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Only since the early sixties views on uncertainty have ~ecome more heterogeneous and more tools to model uncertainty than statistics have been proposed by several scientists. The problem of modeling uncertainty adequately has become more important the more complex systems have become, the faster the scientific and engineering world develops, and the more important, but also more difficult, forecasting of future states of systems have become. The first question one should probably ask is whether uncertainty is a phenomenon, a feature of real world systems, a state of mind or a label for a situation in which a human being wants to make statements about phenomena, i. e. , reality, models, and theories, respectively. One cart also ask whether uncertainty is an objective fact or just a subjective impression which is closely related to individual persons. Whether uncertainty is an objective feature of physical real systems seems to be a philosophical question. This shall not be answered in this volume.
Author: Bilal Ayyub
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780792380306
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 414
Get Book Here
Book Description
Uncertainty has been of concern to engineers, managers and . scientists for many centuries. In management sciences there have existed definitions of uncertainty in a rather narrow sense since the beginning of this century. In engineering and uncertainty has for a long time been considered as in sciences, however, synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Only since the early sixties views on uncertainty have ~ecome more heterogeneous and more tools to model uncertainty than statistics have been proposed by several scientists. The problem of modeling uncertainty adequately has become more important the more complex systems have become, the faster the scientific and engineering world develops, and the more important, but also more difficult, forecasting of future states of systems have become. The first question one should probably ask is whether uncertainty is a phenomenon, a feature of real world systems, a state of mind or a label for a situation in which a human being wants to make statements about phenomena, i. e. , reality, models, and theories, respectively. One cart also ask whether uncertainty is an objective fact or just a subjective impression which is closely related to individual persons. Whether uncertainty is an objective feature of physical real systems seems to be a philosophical question. This shall not be answered in this volume.
Author: Bilal M. Ayyub
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1420011456
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 401
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Book Description
Engineers and scientists often need to solve complex problems with incomplete information resources, necessitating a proper treatment of uncertainty and a reliance on expert opinions. Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Engineering and the Sciences prepares current and future analysts and practitioners to understand the fundamentals of knowledge a
Author: Chakraverty, S.
Publisher: IGI Global
ISBN: 1466649925
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 442
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Book Description
"This book provides the reader with basic concepts for soft computing and other methods for various means of uncertainty in handling solutions, analysis, and applications"--Provided by publisher.
Author: Bilal M. Ayyub
Publisher: Chapman and Hall/CRC
ISBN: 9781584886440
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 400
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Book Description
Engineers and scientists often need to solve complex problems with incomplete information resources, necessitating a proper treatment of uncertainty and a reliance on expert opinions. Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Engineering and the Sciences prepares current and future analysts and practitioners to understand the fundamentals of knowledge and ignorance, how to model and analyze uncertainty, and how to select appropriate analytical tools for particular problems. This volume covers primary components of ignorance and their impact on practice and decision making. It provides an overview of the current state of uncertainty modeling and analysis, and reviews emerging theories while emphasizing practical applications in science and engineering. The book introduces fundamental concepts of classical, fuzzy, and rough sets, probability, Bayesian methods, interval analysis, fuzzy arithmetic, interval probabilities, evidence theory, open-world models, sequences, and possibility theory. The authors present these methods to meet the needs of practitioners in many fields, emphasizing the practical use, limitations, advantages, and disadvantages of the methods.
Author: Bilal M. Ayyub
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9780849331084
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 534
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Book Description
With the expansion of new technologies, materials, and the design of complex systems, the expectations of society upon engineers are becoming larger than ever. Engineers make critical decisions with potentially high adverse consequences. The current political, societal, and financial climate requires engineers to formally consider the factors of uncertainty (e.g., floods, earthquakes, winds, environmental risks) in their decisions at all levels. Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Civil Engineering provides a thorough report on the immediate state of uncertainty modeling and analytical methods for civil engineering systems, presenting a toolbox for solving problems in real-world situations. Topics include Neural networks Genetic algorithms Numerical modeling Fuzzy sets and operations Reliability and risk analysis Systems control Uncertainty in probability estimates This compendium is a considerable reference for civil engineers as well as for engineers in other disciplines, computer scientists, general scientists, and students.
Author: Faith A. Morrison
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108478352
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 389
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Book Description
Build the skills for determining appropriate error limits for quantities that matter with this essential toolkit. Understand how to handle a complete project and how uncertainty enters into various steps. Provides a systematic, worksheet-based process to determine error limits on measured quantities, and all likely sources of uncertainty are explored, measured or estimated. Features instructions on how to carry out error analysis using Excel and MATLAB®, making previously tedious calculations easy. Whether you are new to the sciences or an experienced engineer, this useful resource provides a practical approach to performing error analysis. Suitable as a text for a junior or senior level laboratory course in aerospace, chemical and mechanical engineering, and for professionals.
Author: Jef Caers
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119998719
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 294
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Book Description
Modeling Uncertainty in the Earth Sciences highlights the various issues, techniques and practical modeling tools available for modeling the uncertainty of complex Earth systems and the impact that it has on practical situations. The aim of the book is to provide an introductory overview which covers a broad range of tried-and-tested tools. Descriptions of concepts, philosophies, challenges, methodologies and workflows give the reader an understanding of the best way to make decisions under uncertainty for Earth Science problems. The book covers key issues such as: Spatial and time aspect; large complexity and dimensionality; computation power; costs of 'engineering' the Earth; uncertainty in the modeling and decision process. Focusing on reliable and practical methods this book provides an invaluable primer for the complex area of decision making with uncertainty in the Earth Sciences.
Author: Louis J. M. Aslett
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030836401
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 148
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Book Description
This open access book provides an introduction to uncertainty quantification in engineering. Starting with preliminaries on Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo methods, followed by material on imprecise probabilities, it then focuses on reliability theory and simulation methods for complex systems. The final two chapters discuss various aspects of aerospace engineering, considering stochastic model updating from an imprecise Bayesian perspective, and uncertainty quantification for aerospace flight modelling. Written by experts in the subject, and based on lectures given at the Second Training School of the European Research and Training Network UTOPIAE (Uncertainty Treatment and Optimization in Aerospace Engineering), which took place at Durham University (United Kingdom) from 2 to 6 July 2018, the book offers an essential resource for students as well as scientists and practitioners.
Author: Dan G. Cacuci
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0203498798
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 304
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Book Description
As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable investigative scientific tools in their own right. While most techniques used for these analyses are well documented, there has yet to appear a systematic treatment of the method based
Author: Peter Sandborn
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 981438335X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 440
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Book Description
Understanding the cost ramifications of design, manufacturing and life-cycle management decisions is of central importance to businesses associated with all types of electronic systems. Cost Analysis of Electronic Systems contains carefully developed models and theory that practicing engineers can directly apply to the modeling of costs for real products and systems. In addition, this book brings to light and models many contributions to life-cycle costs that practitioners are aware of but never had the tools or techniques to address quantitatively in the past.Cost Analysis of Electronic Systems melds elements of traditional engineering economics with manufacturing process and life-cycle cost management concepts to form a practical foundation for predicting the cost of electronic products and systems. Various manufacturing cost analysis methods are addressed including: process-flow, parametric, cost of ownership, and activity-based costing. The effects of learning curves, data uncertainty, test and rework processes, and defects are considered. Aspects of system sustainment and life-cycle cost modeling including reliability (warranty, burn-in), maintenance (sparing and availability), and obsolescence are treated. Finally, total cost of ownership of systems and return on investment are addressed.Real life design scenarios from integrated circuit fabrication, electronic systems assembly, substrate fabrication, and electronic systems managementare used as examples of the application of the cost estimation methods developed within the book.
